ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

well I don't see the NHC shifting the track much north or south at all for the 11PM EST advisory looking at the model consensus tonight.

might they move the end point closer to landfall though...or leave it where it is

guess we'll find out soon enough....

[AtlanticWind]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

Hanna seems to be at her 06 utc point now. If I am reading it correctly, how could this affect Ike's future track or will it? Thanks for assisting us here and helping keep us sane! [/quote
I thought that too .was wondering if I was misreading something.

[Air Force Met]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

afm i plead ignorance here, what is variable about consensus?

A forecaster can add more weight to one model...or throw a bad one out.

[cycloneye]

From 11 PM Advisory days 4-5 forecast points:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 59.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

[jlauderdal]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

Hanna seems to be at her 06 utc point now. If I am reading it correctly, how could this affect Ike's future track or will it? Thanks for assisting us here and helping keep us sane!

you are correct and it will be south of that 06 point and looks to be moving S of W now and could easily miss its next point to the S

[Brent]

[Bocadude85]

landfall in the nhc 11pm track

[gatorcane]

5day forecast point landfall in Miami

But its prudent to focus on the cone and not the line this far out.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

Can someone explain this part of the 11p discussion:

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

Does that mean it will either go south of Florida or East of Florida, but they're sure it won't hit Florida?

~Beth~

[artist]

landfall in the nhc 11pm track

actually just short of landfall.

[Brent]

[Canelaw99]

Actually, I used Google Earth to plot the 5 day point, and it's still offshore...offshore between Hollywood and Hallandale. I don't know how to post pics from google earth to here, but maybe someone could plot the lat and long given in the NHC 11 pm advisory and post the pic....

[CronkPSU]

well that would certainly be worst case scenario

[Sabanic]

Can someone explain this part of the 11p discussion:

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

Does that mean it will either go south of Florida or East of Florida, but they're sure it won't hit Florida?

~Beth~

Beth what it really means that as of right now anywhere within the cone is possible. There is quite a spread between the models and as is usually the case they are having to take the middle road.

[Sanibel]

As I posted before, GFDL, this year, has a history of nailing the SW dips. Fay did a SW dip over Puerto Rico to Hispaniola. GFDL had a crazy SW dip outlier on Jamaica for Gus and it verified. Since this storm is also coming in on the 2008 rising track followed by SW dip I would not ignore GFDL's accuracy so far on this type of track.

If you are confused over the conflict between GFDL tracking along Cuba and the other models doing a sharp recurve in front of Florida it could be simply resolved by saying GFDL thinks it will miss the weakness and the others don't. In this 2008 triple crown so far this year GFDL has the Kentucky Derby and Preakness won. For the Belmont it is also running the same type of race, so far, before the final stretch.

Problem is the Gus dip stayed slightly north of GFDL's first call.

[artist]

Air Force Met - did you possibly miss my question regarding Hanna moving out north faster than she was supposed to?
Or any one with the knowledge, how will this affect Ike's track?

[Blown Away]

I'm having a dilemma tonight. There are two theories that use heavily to determine if SFL is going to have a hurricane. I love the "Lushine Dry SFL May Theory" and the "Paul Hebert Box Theory". Obviously Ike is going to blow the Hebert Box by about 4 degrees to the north, but I also feel this could give even more credit to the Lushine Dry SFL May Theory if Ike comes to SFL. So is the Hebert Box theory a bust with Ike or does Lushine get more credit to his Dry SFL May theory.
Hebert Box Info: http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Jim Lushine Thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101251

You have stated that the dry May theory is flawed, but you suddenly "love" it... heh. I'm not dismissive, but it's a little humorous... I don't believe you can utilize it to point toward a Florida strike, in my personal view.

Hopefully, no one earns the impression that I'm -removed- for a Florida landfall... I'm merely adding some considerations to the debate.

I've always loved the Lushine theory, wow all the posts and research I did you can't tell how excited I was watching the SFWMD SFL May rain tallies day to day. I started that thread and understand that conclusions can't be made about the theory if Ike does or does not come to SFL. If Ike comes to SFL, hopefully not as a monster, Lushine will tip the glass to his theory. It seems there is a building anxiety that Ike will make it to SFL, but I have a hard time dismissing Paul's Hebert Box theory, that's why I'm still leaning against no landfall in SFL based on Paul's theory alone. I don't think I am -removed- at all, I've established a long track record discussing those theories.

[shah8]

I think the size of the dip is dependent on whether or when the shear disrupts Ike. The more disruption, the closer to verification. The less, then it will be pretty gentle SW, NW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, Ike looks good, but I think it was wise to maintain Ike at 115kt. Shear is definitely making an attempt to weaken the storm now. The nw side has flattened off dramatically over the last hour or so. However, with such a well formed storm that has already been dealing with 20-25kt shear since this morning, I dont expect this to weaken below 120mph during the next 2 days. And once shear backs off in 48 hours, I think its pretty obvious that unless the core of the storm is significantly disrupted by the shear, this will be a lot stronger than 110kt in 5 days...

[Stormcenter]

5day forecast point landfall in Miami

But its prudent to focus on the cone and not the line this far out.

The NHC 5 days out track record is much better then what it was 5 years ago so I would
definitely be concerned if I lived anywhere in South Florida just ask the
folks in Central LA.