ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Scorpion]

All the model joking aside I don't like the look of this for S. Florida at all.
My take is "if" this hits S. Florida it won't be a Cat. 3-4.

What cat do you think it would be? I'm hopeing for a cat2. I sure hope this is no Andrew.

I thinking a Cat.2.

I would give it a better chance of being a 5 than a 2.

[boca]

If this comes into Florida as a 5 I lose everything.

[Scorpion]

UKMET goes right into South FL.

[Scorpion]

[caneseddy]

Shift south from previous run which had it on an Andrew track into Palm Beach/Martin County.

I hope that 917 listed there is not the pressure

[Scorpion]

Yes thats the pressure, and its tracking Ike north on that run.

[caneseddy]

Yes thats the pressure, and its tracking Ike north on that run.

[Meso]

00z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Heads straight into Cuba again... Interesting though is that on the previous runs it weakened it to cat 1/2 in the short term, which doesn't happen on this run

[shah8]

HWRF is like UKMET in final destination, same pressure, place and direction.

[shah8]

I'm simply disinclined to believe in those deep gfdl runs. It's a long way to go southwest for...

[Meso]

The 00 HWRF has the system at 123kt just prior to landfall.. Weakens the system to almost tropical storm strength in the near future before reintensifying

[southerngale]

Could Ike pose a threat to the GOM?

well that depends on what the last EURO was sniffing......

Why did I know the GOM threat talk was coming soon? Anyway if it someone
made it in there it wouldn't be there too long. IMO

hmmm, maybe because people who live in the GOM would like to know if that's a possibility? Maybe people who live in the GOM saw the 12z Euro and it concerned them? Maybe the latest shift a little west could have some people in the GOM worried that it becomes a trend? Just guesses.
Right now, it looks like East or South Florida, but if the members want to discuss other possibilities, they certainly can.

[physicx07]

When you read about the potential and how it's computed, it's for absolutely ideal conditions. Ike will have somewhat favorable conditions near landfall but definitely not perfectly ideal. Still, I love these maps.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL



nice map to consider for you FL folks.......this could get real ugly for you guys.....

[southerngale]

0z Euro is similar to 12z - still far west outlier, though.

[Meso]

YESTERDAY MORNINGS MODELS



YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MODELS



THIS MORNINGS MODELS

[gtsmith]

That GFS run, while it kind of delays a S FL hit until ~Wed 9/10, it certainly stalls Ike over the middle of the southern part of Florida for quite an uncomfortable amount of time...

[johngaltfla]

Yes thats the pressure, and its tracking Ike north on that run.

Well, that would be beyond depressing. Andrew was 922 mb at landfall.

[Nimbus]

No good news this morning GFDL track is still parked down near Cuba.

Ike has turned a little WSW this morning and looks surprisingly strong (to me) considering the shear.

Checking the water vapor imagery, the upper level low that will likely define the western side of the ridging is now on the move rolling west keeping pace with Ike. That tells me there is less chance of a weakness for Ike to ponder near the Bahamas.

NHC track is further west and has Ike a cat 4 near landfall. 5 AM update hints at Ike possibly shooting the Florida straits. We were getting ahead of the 8 ball last night talking about gulf track solutions, perhaps today some of the pro mets will break down some of the possible future track scenarios? Gulf coast landfall Yes, No Maybe?

[stayawaynow]

No good news this morning GFDL track is still parked down near Cuba.

Ike has turned a little WSW this morning and looks surprisingly strong (to me) considering the shear.

Checking the water vapor imagery, the upper level low that will likely define the western side of the ridging is now on the move rolling west keeping pace with Ike. That tells me there is less chance of a weakness for Ike to ponder near the Bahamas.

NHC track is further west and has Ike a cat 4 near landfall. 5 AM update hints at Ike possibly shooting the Florida straits. We were getting ahead of the 8 ball last night talking about gulf track solutions, perhaps today some of the pro mets will break down some of the possible future track scenarios? Gulf coast landfall Yes, No Maybe?

That would be wonderful to get that insight. Will Ike go into the Gulf or up the state as Wilma did? Is it feasible to go north to escape the winds?

[KWT]

You can celarly see that the models have shifted quite wel to the west since yesterday morning, there is an increasing chance this goes inland into Cuba.

GFDL ruins Ike probably over Cuba again though it does get some time over Caribbean waters...but even the ECM isn't as far south as the GFDL is!

Not looking good for South Florida right now...