ATL: IKE Discussion

[loxahatchee13]

I thought Ike was forcasted to dip to the sw or was it only wsw and is it "dipping" at the time it was forcasted too?

[ROCK]

Yeah notice this:

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This SW motion by the mid levels has thrown any solution into doubt, no model really progged that sharp of a dive...Cuba landfall seems to have to increased quite a bit in terms of risk.

I am also wondering if this could pull a Chris......remember that decapitation?....Under further review KWT....you might be right....the LLC might be tracking more west as the shear is trying to decouple Ike from the N.....illusion possibly...hard to tell....


ok...got it now...your right KWT!!!

[punkyg]

any chance the shear will back off?

[cycloneye]

Not looking to good now:

[ROCK]

any chance the shear will back off?

thats what the NHC has said....I havent looked at any shear forecasts.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

But they have the tampa shield.

i wish... actually, the last time i brought that up (and i was obviously joking), i got hammered by posts explaining how a shield doesn't exist. good luck to you!

Yeah, you did get beaten to within inches of your life on that one!

I think that alot folks were taking everything a little too seriously at that time. I totally understood the point that you were trying to make but, others seem to be under the impression that we, in the Tampa Bay area, truly believe in this mythical force field.

We believe in it as much as we do Santa Claus, it's a lovely idea but, completely unrealistic and we DO know that!

[jlauderdal]

I thought Ike was forcasted to dip to the sw or was it only wsw and is it "dipping" at the time it was forcasted too?

wsw and it appears to be on track to me, it might be a bit south of the next point but we dont know yet

[HURRICANELONNY]

Does look like it's starting a little wsw movement. Which would be early but is logical since he is getting NNE shear. The future track after recon gets in could be farther south. Seems like this year the tropics aim for the carribean islands and cuba. Will see what changes after recon gets in. :eehttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.htmlk:

[KWT]

Also remember the LLC will be steered more to the west then the upper levels as the high is stronger at the upper levels.

However for now I don't think they are too badly tilted but they could become totally destacked soon. MLC is probably a good 10-20 miles south of any LLC and that may well be increasing.

I'll be very surprised if this is still a cat-3 when recon heads in there given the way the presentation has gone down the pan.

[jinftl]

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...

[Special K]

Yesterday, I saw posts concerning comments from Max Mayfield. Can someone tell us what chanels Max has been reporting from? Is it WTVJ in Miami?

[cycloneye]

Not a surprise that BEST TRACK downgrade the winds to 105kts.

AL, 09, 2008090512, , BEST, 0, 233N, 620W, 105, 954, HU,

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, I dont think its as detached as many think it is. The llc appears to be only slightly further north than mlc, maybe by a couple miles. I think this because over the years of tracking storms, the only exposed llc's weve probably ever seen were ts's. Those usually are smaller, more poorly formed llcs. This has a larger, stronger one, making me believe its in slightly better shape than some think. I think weakening to cat2 just became more likely, but I still see at least a mid 4 on fla coast.

[ericinmia]

Yesterday, I saw posts concerning comments from Max Mayfield. Can someone tell us what chanels Max has been reporting from? Is it WTVJ in Miami?

wplg.com
Channel 10 news.

[Grease Monkey]

But that weather discussion was over 3 hours ago, I would think they could easily change their mind in that time period.

[jinftl]

true that...we will get an updated discussion with the 11am advisory

But that weather discussion was over 3 hours ago, I would think a lot could change in that time.

[otowntiger]

It's funny how so many yesterday were saying 'no way this weakens to cat 2!' 'He's too strong now!', etc. I said that with a storm of this small size great fluctuations up and down are quite possible. I would not at all be surprised to see Ike slip down to a cat 1 or even less if the circumstances are right, but at the same time not be too terribly surprised to see him ramp up significantly any time in the next few days.

Also, I just heard on a local radio station here, that subscibes to Accuweather one of their Mets, Jack Boston said they fully expect that Ike will do a "Hanna" and turn northwest before hitting the state. He said it would be a close call, but that Florida would not take a direct hit. Any one hear the same thing? I'm surprised because doesn't JB work for them? Is he now saying this? I'd be surprised because he always seems to want to tout the worse case.

[KWT]

Best track seems to be following the MLC eye feature andas the difference probably isan't all that great between the two that may not be a bad idea, its certainly plunging more then was expected at this point.

cheezyWXguy, its probably not badly unstacked otherwise it wouldn't have its eye feature still.

If this keeps up a readjustment south will be needed by the NHC, they may have to anyway after the 06z round of models.

I'd guess motion is currently 260...

[chris_fit]

Not looking so hot this morning Ike....

[ROCK]

Well, I dont think its as detached as many think it is. The llc appears to be only slightly further north than mlc, maybe by a couple miles. I think this because over the years of tracking storms, the only exposed llc's weve probably ever seen were ts's. Those usually are smaller, more poorly formed llcs. This has a larger, stronger one, making me believe its in slightly better shape than some think. I think weakening to cat2 just became more likely, but I still see at least a mid 4 on fla coast.

Mid 4? sheesh why dont you go ahead and call a 5 since it wont make much difference....