ATL: IKE Discussion

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Sabanic
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2101 Postby Sabanic » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:56 am

I was asked to post this . . . Dr. Bill Williams basically repeated what he had said yesterday. That there were still many variables regarding the future track of Ike, but did state that those of us along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on Ike. A good chance he would enter the GOM.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2102 Postby Myersgirl » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:56 am

otowntiger wrote:It's funny how so many yesterday were saying 'no way this weakens to cat 2!' 'He's too strong now!', etc. I said that with a storm of this small size great fluctuations up and down are quite possible. I would not at all be surprised to see Ike slip down to a cat 1 or even less if the circumstances are right, but at the same time not be too terribly surprised to see him ramp up significantly any time in the next few days.

Also, I just heard on a local radio station here, that subscibes to Accuweather one of their Mets, Jack Boston said they fully expect that Ike will do a "Hanna" and turn northwest before hitting the state. He said it would be a close call, but that Florida would not take a direct hit. Any one hear the same thing? I'm surprised because doesn't JB work for them? Is he now saying this? I'd be surprised because he always seems to want to tout the worse case.


Makes sense, just look at their map, Florida miss to the east
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=8
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2103 Postby hiflyer » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:57 am

Grease Monkey wrote:But that weather discussion was over 3 hours ago, I would think they could easily change their mind in that time period.


Unless there are quite significant data changes I have not seen the NHC make big changes from discussion to discussion...more often than not it is a nudge this way...or that way. They appear quite comfortable, probably from long and valid experience, to make small moves while still far out while the models they base on look like windshield wipers...left right left right left right.

Max Mayfield does spots for WPLG10 ABC in Miami...believe he also does a couple other stations but he still lives down here from what I remember. http://www.local10.com/index.html

Others down here are
FOX http://www4.wsvn.com/
NBC http://www.nbc6.net/index.html
CBS http://cbs4.com/

All of them can stream live though most do not routinely.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2104 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:57 am

The latest at 8:45 AM EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2105 Postby JtSmarts » Fri Sep 05, 2008 7:58 am

ROCK wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Well, I dont think its as detached as many think it is. The llc appears to be only slightly further north than mlc, maybe by a couple miles. I think this because over the years of tracking storms, the only exposed llc's weve probably ever seen were ts's. Those usually are smaller, more poorly formed llcs. This has a larger, stronger one, making me believe its in slightly better shape than some think. I think weakening to cat2 just became more likely, but I still see at least a mid 4 on fla coast.



Mid 4? sheesh why dont you go ahead and call a 5 since it wont make much difference....


Well the NHC as of 5 is still forecasting a Cat 4 near landfall. :(
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2106 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:00 am

Looks like the northern eye wall is tilted. The shear is doing a pretty good number on Ike right now, with the center on the northern edge of the CDO.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2107 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:03 am

Sabanic wrote:I was asked to post this . . . Dr. Bill Williams basically repeated what he had said yesterday. That there were still many variables regarding the future track of Ike, but did state that those of us along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on Ike. A good chance he would enter the GOM.


I'm wondering if he still uses the BLOWH hurricane tracking model that I think was developed by Dr. Blackwell? When he was our hurricane consultant at a plant I worked for he would send me printouts of the BLOWH hurricane model runs.. this was for both Danny and Georges.. which if I recall were very accurate for these two storms, esp Georges.. not sure if he even uses this model anymore with all the others available... just throwing out some old experience with Dr. Bill...

BTW, he is one really nice guy too..

here is a link to the model info, not been updated since 2002 :?:

http://www.usouthal.edu/meteorology/blohw.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2108 Postby Jinkers » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:03 am

I was just watching channel 10, and they had Max Mayfield on the phone from his house, and he's saying we're most likely to feel effects from Ike, and even a good chance at a direct hit, and I listen when he talks.
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#2109 Postby gtalum » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:05 am

I have to say, I haven't been this nervous about a storm since Ivan 2004. Fortunately, that storm passed us by, but the current NHC track could mean trouble for my area. Here goes another weekend of trying to decide whether or not to shutter up. :roll:
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#2110 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:07 am

I am glad that the models are bringing this south of Florida now, but lets see if it is a trend with the 12z models, or just a fluke.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2111 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:07 am

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
820 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 09 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008

MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK USED WAS MODIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ONGOING TPC TRACK AND ONGOING MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN TWO CAMPS WITH NGPS AND CMC TAKING IKE
MORE NWD AND ALLOWING A PICKUP BY THE APPROACHING TROF DROPPING THRU THE MS TO OH VALLEYS AROUND DAY 4 TUES. ECMWF IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE IN THE GLFMEX AS IT KEEPS RIDGING OVER THE STORM AND MISSES THE MID NATION TROF. GFS LINGERS IKE OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA UNTIL IT IS PICKED UP BY A DEEP DAY 7 TROF. GFS DEPICTION OF IKE IS ERRONEOUSLY WEAK ENSEMBLES MEMBERS HAVE A BROAD SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TO YUCATAN. WHERE IKE IS BECOMES CRITICAL BY DAY 4 TUES AS TO ITS FUTURE TRACK. HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS A MANUALLY MODIFIED ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION EXTRAPOLATING DAYS 6 AND 7 THU/FRI INTO THE ERN GLFMEX FROM ITS SRN FL POSITION BY NHC. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH NHC AGAIN AT 16Z...IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON PRESSURES ISSUANCE. SEE NHC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.
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#2112 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:10 am

The northern side of Ike looks pretty poorly right now, it seems to be having a really tough battle with the shear as of now, indeed the northern eyewall may even be nearly open.

LLC seems to be to the NW of the upper circulation with the eye, this was expected by the NHC so good call from them!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2113 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:12 am

ROCK wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Well, I dont think its as detached as many think it is. The llc appears to be only slightly further north than mlc, maybe by a couple miles. I think this because over the years of tracking storms, the only exposed llc's weve probably ever seen were ts's. Those usually are smaller, more poorly formed llcs. This has a larger, stronger one, making me believe its in slightly better shape than some think. I think weakening to cat2 just became more likely, but I still see at least a mid 4 on fla coast.



Mid 4? sheesh why dont you go ahead and call a 5 since it wont make much difference....

Thats nice sarcasm, but really what I said was only 5-10kt over the official forecast..In fact, depending how well the storm holds up, a cat5 may actually be a possibility down the road. Shear is practically nonexistent after 36-48hours, with very warm water temps.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2114 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:12 am

Now NHC track is into Cutler Ridge or slightly south. Like I was worried about last night the trend is continuing south, or left. Not good for us on the west coast of Florida because this is a perfect Donna hook scenario that I thought I would never see in my lifetime. A Keys category 3 hooking up the west coast is now a more serious possibility if Ike doesn't jump into a weakness prior. GFDL continues to go south, going south of Cuba now. NHC must be taking it seriously as part of the track blend because they are going south with their track. If Ike does recurve this left trend could mean more of central or northern Florida stands a better chance of not being able to avoid being hit.

Ike is into its SW track now. All eyes are on how far SW it goes.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2115 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:13 am

What is occuring now was forecast by NHC:

THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS 4-5
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#2116 Postby Special K » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:14 am

HPC PREFERENCE IS TOWARDS A MANUALLY MODIFIED ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION EXTRAPOLATING DAYS 6 AND 7 THU/FRI INTO THE ERN GLFMEX FROM ITS SRN FL POSITION BY NHC. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH NHC AGAIN AT 16Z...

Are they predicting a miss of SFL into the Gulf or that it goes through SFL into the Gulf?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2117 Postby stormy1970al » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:14 am

Frank P wrote:
Sabanic wrote:I was asked to post this . . . Dr. Bill Williams basically repeated what he had said yesterday. That there were still many variables regarding the future track of Ike, but did state that those of us along the Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on Ike. A good chance he would enter the GOM.


I'm wondering if he still uses the BLOWH hurricane tracking model that I think was developed by Dr. Blackwell? When he was our hurricane consultant at a plant I worked for he would send me printouts of the BLOWH hurricane model runs.. this was for both Danny and Georges.. which if I recall were very accurate for these two storms, esp Georges.. not sure if he even uses this model anymore with all the others available... just throwing out some old experience with Dr. Bill...

BTW, he is one really nice guy too..

here is a link to the model info, not been updated since 2002 :?:

http://www.usouthal.edu/meteorology/blohw.html


Being from these parts of the woods I know when Dr. Bill Williams makes a comment people listen around here. He is very well respected in the Gulf Coast are of Mobile and the Eastern Shore. If he is worried then I am worried and will keep my eye on the tropics which is basically what our local mets are saying. Enjoy the nice weekend and keep an eye on the storm.
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#2118 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:16 am

Not only that Sanibel but the track appears to be to the south of where the NHC was predicting. The eye still holding on nicely mabe a sign that isn't as unstacked as maybe I first thought as well :roll:
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2119 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:20 am

So was thinking about buying plywood to board up my business in Deerfield Beach today before the rush for it comes... but if you guys think it will miss S Fla I do not want to buy it and add a extra expense.. what do you guys think?
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#2120 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:21 am

KWT wrote:Not only that Sanibel but the track appears to be to the south of where the NHC was predicting. The eye still holding on nicely mabe a sign that isn't as unstacked as maybe I first thought as well :roll:


I'm not so sure that an earlier turn to the SW then predicted necessarily equates to a eventual track more south and west. It may be that the main axis of the ridge that Ike is reacting to now is a bit further to the east then forecast and that Ike may come around the western side of that ridge and start the turn to the WNW sooner.
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