ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

GFDL has it at around 965mbs at the end of the run heading NW in the eastern gulf, a little bit away from the keys but not by a huge distance.

[ronjon]

06Z HWRF slams Key Largo as a CAT 4.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090506-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ivanhater]

[jhpigott]

Coming from this latitude, it would be absolutely stunning if Ike made it to the Gulf, from a climatology standpoint

[JPmia]

GFDL, GFS and somewhat the HWRF show a southern trend for this round of model runs. Let's see, and in my case HOPE, it becomes a trend.

[KWT]

Many models now getting very close to Cuba indeed, I'm starting to think odds are greater on a Cuba landfall then a Florida landfall...

[3ABirdMan]

So in less than 2 days the GFS has gone from a recurve east of the Bahamas to a straight shoot west through Key West.

Forgive me, but from a layman's point of view, I thought our models were more accurate than that at 4-5 days.

Don't ask yourself "What did the model(s) do?"

INSTEAD - Ask yourself "WHY did the model(s) do that?"

In other words, as prefaced before (see AirForceMet et al), don't look at the change in the GFS, look at WHY the GFS made such a big change. You are partially correct - 5 days out is a looooonnnnnggg way off for pinpointing where a storm will be. But it's NOT too far off to look at the trends that will cause the storm to move!

[chris_fit]

If Ike makes it south enough to impact Cuba, I expect it to be considerably weaker, cat1 at most, NOT due to land interaction but due to shear. taking it's part.

I believe Ike will be a Cat 1 by 11pm tonight, possibly even 5pm.

I also expect a slow down once Ike approaches the Bahamas, near the Florida coast.

[Bocadude85]

06Z HWRF slams Key Largo as a CAT 4.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090506-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

did this model shift a little north from last night? I thought last night it showed Ike down near Key west?

[Extremeweatherguy]

[gatorcane]

looks like the UKM has shifted back north to Broward County landfall....

[Sabanic]

An awful lot of the models are sure thinking Ike will make it into the GOM

[Sanibel]

Consensus is obviously trending GOM.

[O Town]

Rut roh, not liking the look of the south trend.
Question is now what will happen IF he gets in the gulf?
Curve back into FL.? Head north? or continue his westward trek?

[Ivanhater]

Here we go again..another weekend...another storm

[Frank P]

Here we go again..another weekend...another storm

Boy this is something I didn’t want to see at all….
Un%$#$#%$#ing believable and nauseating to say the least…
I just really didn’t expect this thing to even get to the GOM …

[Ivanhater]

Here we go again..another weekend...another storm

Boy this is something I didn’t want to see at all….
Un%$#$#%$#ing believable and nauseating to say the least…
I just really didn’t expect this thing to even get to the GOM …

To be honest Frank I didnt think it was the most likely scenario but still was watching for the possibility, now this morning the GOM has become the most likely scenario and when the new track comes out, many other Gommers will start to take notice

[Aristotle]

Dare I say the name of the storm that starts with K???? Rut Roh is right!

[gatorcane]

Here we go again..another weekend...another storm

Boy this is something I didn’t want to see at all….
Un%$#$#%$#ing believable and nauseating to say the least…
I just really didn’t expect this thing to even get to the GOM …

To be honest Frank I didnt think it was the most likely scenario but still was watching for the possibility, now this morning the GOM has become the most likely scenario and when the new track comes out, many other Gommers will start to take notice

I still am doubting it will make the GOM because the edge of the Bermuda High probably won't be that far west....look at Hanna, it had no chance of making it past Florida.

models are flopping back and forth -- look for them to shift east again...

[Agua]

Don't jump off the bridge, it's just a model run.