ATL: IKE Discussion

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BOPPA
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2121 Postby BOPPA » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:23 am

[quote="Sanibel"]Now NHC track is into Cutler Ridge or slightly south. Like I was worried about last night the trend is continuing south, or left. Not good for us on the west coast of Florida because this is a perfect Donna hook scenario that I thought I would never see in my lifetime. A Keys category 3 hooking up the west coast is now a more serious possibility if Ike doesn't jump into a weakness prior. GFDL continues to go south, going south of Cuba now. NHC must be taking it seriously as part of the track blend because they are going south with their track. If Ike does recurve this left trend could mean more of central or northern Florida stands a better chance of not being able to avoid being hit.

Ike is into its SW track now. All eyes are on how far SW it goes.[/quot

Sanibel - You WILL let your fellow SW Fl. neighbors know when you think it is time
for us to do something - right????? As of right now I am soooooo confused that it
is driving me crazy ------ thanks neighbor
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2122 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:24 am

Bocadude85 wrote:So was thinking about buying plywood to board up my business in Deerfield Beach today before the rush for it comes... but if you guys think it will miss S Fla I do not want to buy it and add a extra expense.. what do you guys think?

Do NOT utilize this board for official information. Do NOT factor the posts into your decisions. Follow the advice of the NHC and official local sources. Take the extra precautions if they are deemed necessary by these authorities.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2123 Postby fci » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:25 am

Sanibel wrote:Now NHC track is into Cutler Ridge or slightly south. Like I was worried about last night the trend is continuing south, or left. Not good for us on the west coast of Florida because this is a perfect Donna hook scenario that I thought I would never see in my lifetime. A Keys category 3 hooking up the west coast is now a more serious possibility if Ike doesn't jump into a weakness prior. GFDL continues to go south, going south of Cuba now. NHC must be taking it seriously as part of the track blend because they are going south with their track. If Ike does recurve this left trend could mean more of central or northern Florida stands a better chance of not being able to avoid being hit.

Ike is into its SW track now. All eyes are on how far SW it goes.


I think it is key not to look specifically at the "line".
Last night the "line" was to The Broward/PBC border and now this morning to Cutler Ridge.

The exact line is not important until we are a LOT closer to landfall.
3-5 days out the NHC will use and "average" of the models so the "cone" is the key.

Look at Derek's forecast graphics and NHC discussions that continually advise "not to look at the line".
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2124 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:26 am

The latest at 9:15 AM EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2125 Postby fci » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:27 am

Bocadude85 wrote:So was thinking about buying plywood to board up my business in Deerfield Beach today before the rush for it comes... but if you guys think it will miss S Fla I do not want to buy it and add a extra expense.. what do you guys think?


Wait for a Hurricane Warning (24 hour notice) or at the very least a Hurricane Watch (36 hour notice).

Unless you enjoy putting up the shutters.
I know that I don't and will wait until told to.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2126 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:28 am

fci wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:So was thinking about buying plywood to board up my business in Deerfield Beach today before the rush for it comes... but if you guys think it will miss S Fla I do not want to buy it and add a extra expense.. what do you guys think?


Wait for a Hurricane Warning (24 hour notice) or at the very least a Hurricane Watch (36 hour notice).

Unless you enjoy putting up the shutters.
I know that I don't and will wait until told to.


I was not going to put the shutters up yet just simply buy the wood before the huge lines come this weekend.
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#2127 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:29 am

CalmBeforeStorm, possibly but I suspect its just the ridge extends a little further east then the models expected, its hard to know with only a few hours of motion to watch, need to really see 6-12hrs of this sort of motion to see whether its a wobble SW because of the shear or actually a sharper SW motion then the NHC were expecting, it has big implications down the line for Cuba, Fflorida and the islands.
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#2128 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:30 am

Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.
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Re:

#2129 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:31 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.


yep it probably will.
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#2130 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:35 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm starting to that Cuba may well take the main blow if Ike doesn't balance out to the west, we shall see but I suspect the NHC shifts south again, maybe quite a bit in the short term next advisory. Sadly the Turks and Caicos still looking at a powerful hurricane being in the region.
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Re:

#2131 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:37 am

KWT wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm starting to that Cuba may well take the main blow if Ike doesn't balance out to the west, we shall see but I suspect the NHC shifts south again, maybe quite a bit in the short term next advisory. Sadly the Turks and Caicos still looking at a powerful hurricane being in the region.


Not for this advisory at least..expect only a small shift SW because several models still aim at SE Florida and the UKM as shifted north:

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Re: ATL: IKE Recon discussions

#2132 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:37 am

Here are the next missions from Saturday and beyond.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 051300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 05 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID O6/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-097

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IKE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 06/1800,07/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
       C. 06/1530Z
       D. 22.7N 68.1W
       E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 07/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 0509A IKE
       C. 06/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
       A. 07/0600,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0609A IKE
       C. 07/0330Z
       D. 22.4N 70.6W
       E. 07/0500Z TO 07/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
       G-IV FOR 08/0000Z. A WP-3 RESEARCH MISSION AT 07/2000Z
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#2133 Postby loxahatchee13 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:39 am

does a sharper sw dip indicate a sharper nw west turn at all?
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#2134 Postby jhpigott » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:39 am

so is there any recon flights going out there today where we can get obs . . . i'm confused
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#2135 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:39 am

UKMO can be discared as being too far north, it suggests due west when Ike is clearly streaming WSW.

It won't be a big shift but it will be shift, esp in the early parts given its already south of where it was meant to be at 18z by 12z and that WSW is still going.

South Florida clearly is still at big risk though don't get me wrong, just that the Cuba risk is increasing as well.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2136 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:40 am

jhpigott wrote:so is there any recon flights going out there today where we can get obs . . . i'm confused


Air Force Plane departs at 11:30 AM EDT this morning.

A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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#2137 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:41 am

I don't know if half of those models, which run off of the GFS, can be reliable because the past few GFS runs have been almost garbage.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2138 Postby carversteve » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:41 am

Just a question from an unofficial weather lover....Ike seems to be moving sw from what i see..And pretty well sw..What are the chances that Ike goes over Haiti's a bit or eastern cuba and travels a bit south of cuba and kinda pulls a gustav,though maybe a more bit east of his path?? (Please no bashing allowed,just curious)! :)
Last edited by carversteve on Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#2139 Postby GreenSky » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:42 am

gatorcane wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.


yep it probably will.


I guess things ARE looking good for SE Florida now! This far out the NHC cone is bound to change...and now the GFDL is showing Ike going well south of even the Keys.

I say that Ike misses Florida peninsula altogether, shoots through Cuba and the Florida straits, and hits the panhandle or some other gulf state.

How many times have we all seen this happen? The Florida peninsula usually gets hit in October from Caribbean storms coming from the southwest. Just as usual, SE Florida is just getting another empty threat, gas prices will rise, a state of emergency will be declared, and after all is said and done Ike will have not killed ANYONE and will have made landfall somewhere else.

I've seen this pattern all too much and am not going to start getting frantic and excited about a S FL landfall

If Ike does make landfall, it will probably be a small storm and quite weak and sheared. Basically, something almost always screws up in terms of the prospects of an intense hurricane making landfall in South Florida from the east (yes there are exceptions like Andrew and 1926 hurricane, but those are FEW and FAR between). We might not see another of those scenarios for another 50 years.
Last edited by GreenSky on Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2140 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 05, 2008 8:42 am

I'm curious what the Pro Mets, especially WXMAN57 and AIR FORCE MET, have to say about the latest guidance. Previously, both mets put their money on a more northerly, re curve, scenario... Will the models shift back?
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