ATL: IKE Discussion

[gtsmith]

wind shear maps anyone?

[SouthFLTropics]

Also one last thing that I see is the track is bending back a little more to the west, it may be the Ike is stair-stepping WSW who knows.

i noticed that as well, not every day we see an Atlantic system "stair-stepping" WSW, one way or the other Ike looks like he is going to be south of the next forecast point

It does appear that it is going to miss the next forecast point to the South. For the people in Hispanola's sake I would hope that Ike doesn't get that far South. They have had their fare share of action this year and probably can't take much more. It's like someone on that Island has turned on the hurricane magnet or something...

SFT

[cycloneye]

Will the plane depart from Biloxi or St. Croix?

St Croix.

[Vortex]

Does anyone have the link to hurricane andrew models when andrew was in the same position as ike..ive seen it posted before maybe a year or 2 ago.thanks

[Sanibel]

What it is doing right now is possibly better for Florida. It looks to be diving more WSW well under the next trop point, which gives credibility to GFDL. Too early to say but this last movement should get the attention of those in the GOM.



Disclaimer: The opinion above is that of a rank amateur who is not taken seriously by large groups of people on the internet (lol).



What you are seeing now is why I kept telling people to watch the GFDL yesterday.

[KWT]

I think this is going to be one of those set-ups where we really need to watch what happens, Turks and Caicos and the islands to the west are first in line for Ike, I think models in nearly total agreement on a big hit there sadly.

Cyloneye, yep the inner core is jsut about holding on as is the eye, if anything its got a touch better defined in the last hour again.

[KWT]

Sanibel, possibly but over the last few hours its gone back to a 265 motion. For it to hit Cuba needs to be a good 1 and a half degrees below the NHC track, which is quite possible if it takes another sharper then forecasted jog to the SW/WSW, the models do seem to hinting this may be possible but who knows!

[Air Force Met]

I'm curious what the Pro Mets, especially WXMAN57 and AIR FORCE MET, have to say about the latest guidance. Previously, both mets put their money on a more northerly, re curve, scenario... Will the models shift back?

+1

I can't speak for WXMAN...but I never put my "money" on any such thing. I have said a Floyd like track w/in 100 miles. 100 nm miles west of Floyd puts it extremely close (within any margin of error) to the E coast of Fl. That's the problem with boards...being misquoted.

On my forecast to my customers...I only gave a recurve solution a 20% chance. I gave an equal chance for the storm coming w/in 20-60 miles of SE FL and then recurving into the Carolinas...and an equal chance of it crossing SE FL and then moving into the GoM towards the panhandle of FL or AL. Yesterday's track was 20 miles E of Palm Beach on a N heading towards the Carolinas. I don't know how that's a recurve...other than EVERY storm will recurve eventually...and I certainly never said it would recurve and keep Fl safe. On a PM I even stated I couldn't rule SEFL out...just that I thought it would go E of there...on a Floyd like track (w/in 100 miles).

With the current model trends...I will be dropping the recurve chances down considerably...and the Carolinas hit some...and increasing the SE FL threat (and then into the GoM).

But as far as putting money on any solution...please don't misquote me. I would never put money on ANY weather event that is 5 days away. That's the whole reason for the cone of error.

[sponger]

SFL in the clear??? My goodness! Its Friday people. We are 4 days out so lets get some perspective.

[Air Force Met]

SFL in the clear??? My goodness! Its Friday people. We are 4 days out so lets get some perspective.

i don't think people know how. People get swayed by every track...trend of the satellite...and every set of model runs.

Things change on a dime and everyone needs to stop talking crazy.

[CourierPR]

At the end of the visible loop Ike appears to resume a more westerly motion. If that verifies, he may hit the next NHC forecast point dead on.

[sponger]

SFL in the clear??? My goodness! Its Friday people. We are 4 days out so lets get some perspective.

i don't think people know how. People get swayed by every track...trend of the satellite...and every set of model runs.

Things change on a dime and everyone needs to stop talking crazy.

Well put AFM! its you and the other pros that help keep us weather rookies in line!

[KWT]

Ok so we are on 6hrly fixes now, thats good to hear.

Take off in a little over an hours time.

[MiamiensisWx]

At the end of the visible loop Ike appears to resume a more westerly motion. If that verifies, he may hit the next NHC forecast point dead on.

Personally, I still see a long term WSW movement...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

I would not focus on minute wobbles. It's clearly passing slightly south of the next TPC point.

[miamijaaz]

SFL in the clear??? My goodness! Its Friday people. We are 4 days out so lets get some perspective.

i don't think people know how. People get swayed by every track...trend of the satellite...and every set of model runs.

Things change on a dime and everyone needs to stop talking crazy.

Thank you for saying this. Let's hope people read it.

[gatorcane]

SFL in the clear??? My goodness! Its Friday people. We are 4 days out so lets get some perspective.

i don't think people know how. People get swayed by every track...trend of the satellite...and every set of model runs.

Things change on a dime and everyone needs to stop talking crazy.

AFM excellent post.

One model run or one wobble and people say "Its a GOM issue!"

unbelievable

Members should look at long-term trends instead.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel - You WILL let your fellow SW Fl. neighbors know when you think it is time
for us to do something - right????? As of right now I am soooooo confused that it
is driving me crazy ------ thanks neighbor

This storm is the reason why Storm2k has the disclaimer.

I will post what I intend to do for whatever that's worth.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is a no win situation....True if the storm goes over Cuba it would weaken considerably due to the small nature of the storm, but it would probably take a heavy life toll in the process. On the other hand if it shoots the gap between Florida and Cuba, it will likely remain strong and probably hit somewhere in the gulf.... No win situation here...

I agree that it's getting sheared now. This could decrease down to a cat 2 storm like they were calling form, but it doesn't matter how much it weakens as shear is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours, and we've seen how fast these things can ramp back up.

[chris_fit]

I'm curious what the Pro Mets, especially WXMAN57 and AIR FORCE MET, have to say about the latest guidance. Previously, both mets put their money on a more northerly, re curve, scenario... Will the models shift back?

+1

I can't speak for WXMAN...but I never put my "money" on any such thing. I have said a Floyd like track w/in 100 miles. 100 nm miles west of Floyd puts it extremely close (within any margin of error) to the E coast of Fl. That's the problem with boards...being misquoted.

On my forecast to my customers...I only gave a recurve solution a 20% chance. I gave an equal chance for the storm coming w/in 20-60 miles of SE FL and then recurving into the Carolinas...and an equal chance of it crossing SE FL and then moving into the GoM towards the panhandle of FL or AL. Yesterday's track was 20 miles E of Palm Beach on a N heading towards the Carolinas. I don't know how that's a recurve...other than EVERY storm will recurve eventually...and I certainly never said it would recurve and keep Fl safe. On a PM I even stated I couldn't rule SEFL out...just that I thought it would go E of there...on a Floyd like track (w/in 100 miles).

With the current model trends...I will be dropping the recurve chances down considerably...and the Carolinas hit some...and increasing the SE FL threat (and then into the GoM).

But as far as putting money on any solution...please don't misquote me. I would never put money on ANY weather event that is 5 days away. That's the whole reason for the cone of error.

Didn't mean to upset you by misquoting you, as a matter of fact I didn't use any quotes, just stated the obvious. For the record,it was WXMAN57 that said that.

Though you did say the "Floyd-like track +/- 100 miles" several times, that would be a turn to the north before or right at Florida's east coast, correct? To me, you thought it was going to go further north than what the models are showing now. I simply wanted to see if you still think that and/if your reasoning had changed and why. I did not throw words in your mouth nor was I trying to insult you in any way... take a chill pill


Also, I want to thank you, and all the pro-mets on here. I guys are 10000x better than most of the Mets on TV! You don't get paid to post here, and I, as well as most users on this site, appreciate your time to post.

And I totally agree with your "crazy talk" post on the models flopping over the place, which is exactly why I posted my original post to ask if you had any new views on the storm.

[CourierPR]

This morning on Local 10 in Miami, former NHC Director, Max Mayfield, sounded very serious when discussing a possible threat to S FL. Again, he is not given to hype nor is Local 10.