ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

I'm not liking the 12Z GFS one bit for those in the keys/sfl.

more so mainland South Florida if you ask me...I think the 12Z GFS is going to have Ike north of the Straits on this run maybe even a recurve just before SE Florida...lets see.

[Sanibel]

I think those with a good eye for storms would agree a tight little SOB with a good southern inflow field is not what you want to see headed for the Straits...

North core rebounding.

[Full8s]

I know that no one wants to stick their necks out, and at this point its only conjecture since Ike is still so far out, but in everyone's opinions what are the chances of any major impact in the Tampa area?

I'm just north of Tampa, and am admittedly under-prepared for a hit... (I know, better safe than sorry, etc...)

Thanks in advance...

-JS

[AtlanticWind]

12Z GFS mean movement just north of West between 6 and 54 hours heading towards Central Bahamas now....

shift north.

Looks about the same as the 6z run to me so far.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS mean movement just north of West between 6 and 54 hours heading towards Central Bahamas now....

shift north.

Looks about the same as the 6z run to me so far.

Lol me too

[AtlanticWind]

12Z GFS mean movement just north of West between 6 and 54 hours heading towards Central Bahamas now....

shift north.

Looks about the same as the 6z run to me so far.

Lol me too

Now at 72 jhours alittle north of the 6z

[KWT]

Sanibel, nope you reallt don't want a small system in the Bahamas region again, just got to hope the inflow is drawn far enough take in some air from Cuba but who knows?

I'm still seeing roughly a 260 degree heading.

[jabber]

Who wants to bet we see her as a Hurricane prior to landfall... any takers

[AtlanticWind]

Ok , I dont like GFS run , right off se fla coast

[KWT]

Yep the GFS slightly further north, just goes to show the details are still a little up in the air, lots to be settled still as of now!

convection on the northern side on the slight rebound again as well.

[HURAKAN]

I have seen the discussion going from away Florida vs Florida, to the Florida Straits vs Florida. Too early to tell but I don't like it.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
GfS , Not good.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS nails mainland SE Florida...

the right shift has happened...look for other models based on the 12Z GFS to shift right throughout the day folks..probably a slight right shift.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS = SFL Landfall (through my eyes)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[jinftl]

Given the cone of uncertainty and the fact that it may not be until monday that we know if there is a w-nw motion or more of a due west one...i am finding it harder to see that most of south florida and the keys will not at least have to go through the motions of preparing...i.e, hurricane watches sunday or monday. No one is going to mess around with what Ike is forecast to be...a Cat 4. Err on the side of caution.

I have seen the discussion going from away Florida vs Florida, to the Florida Straits vs Florida. Too early to tell but I don't like it.

[Mattie]

Things are definately turing serious here. I never like a storm just to our south, I've seen too many last minute jogs toward the north. But there is some comfort if this trend the models have towards the south keeps on moving that way. I have to pick up the anchors for my shutters as well, can't find them any where in the garage. Are those a standard size? And when doing some research i found this (http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.as ... lang=en-US). And due to overwhelming response it will not be shipped until about 10 days. I never imagined something like that existed, that takes food from a can to a whole new level.

yum, yum. That makes cans and cans of Vienna sausages sound good - pass the crackers please. . . . (20 year shelf life??)

[shah8]

Latest images show Ike on either a preservation mode or slight strengthing mode.

[gatorcane]

ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida

Not GOM Bound

[KWT]

Deformation Arc to the north of the system seems to be weakening, I wonder whether thats a sign of the shear starting to ease just a touch

12z GFS is a really severe set-up form Miami-Dade.

[Scorpion]

GFS showing recurve over Florida.