ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[miamijaaz]

Here we go again with a shift back north with the track at 5 pm. It's going to be a long weekend.

not on one run of the GFS....

I'm assuming the other models run off of the GFS will shift north as well.

[gatorcane]

Here we go again with a shift back north with the track at 5 pm. It's going to be a long weekend.

not on one run of the GFS....

I'm assuming the other models run off of the GFS will shift north as well.

most definitely....

[Ivanhater]

look at the surface gator..its in the gulf at 114

No Ivanhater, see above.

Your looking at 500mb..it moves in the gulf at 114...this run comes up the west coast of Florida in the gulf

[KWT]

That weakness is very small indeed, wouldn't take much for it to not even be there and for the track to be like the 06z...just too soon to say!

Still the 12 GFS is terrible for south Florida, probably worse then Wilma...

[gatorcane]

look at the surface gator..its in the gulf at 114

No Ivanhater, see above.

Your looking at 500mb..it moves in the gulf at 114...this run comes up the west coast of Florida in the gulf

Okay I see what you mean but looks like there is a big weakness over Florida so its hinting at a NNW then N or NE hook

[ROCK]

quote="miamijaaz"]

Here we go again with a shift back north with the track at 5 pm. It's going to be a long weekend.

not on one run of the GFS....

I'm assuming the other models run off of the GFS will shift north as well.[/quote]

most definitely....[/quote]

I wouldnt bet my last dollar on that Gator.....until the GFDL / EURO jump before I am willing to make that wager...

[Weatherfreak000]

Im not buying into the lousy GFS at all...it's not consistent...hasn't been performing well since...Fay...which ironically was the last storm it actually saw in it's runs at the proper intensity


Not to mention Ike is dipping WSW far more significantly then GFS indicates...extrapolate that and Ike is under Florida.


Next model run please.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looking at 500...Central GOM looks to be in great shape (and this is not that far out). I dont know why EURO keeps doing that but this looks like a NEGOM problem to me. But what do I know?

[KWT]

Actually they may not shift north gatorcane, the GFS shifted NE on its 18z run, the GFDL and HWRF shifted south, indeed even the HWRF was skimming the Cuban coast on that run!

[rockyman]

GFS at 138...moving back west away from FL coast

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[dwg71]

Im not buying into the lousy GFS at all...it's not consistent...hasn't been performing well since...Fay...which ironically was the last storm it actually saw in it's runs at the proper intensity


Not to mention Ike is dipping WSW far more significantly then GFS indicates...extrapolate that and Ike is under Florida.


Next model run please.

GFS was pretty good with Gustav, calling for central/SE LA landfall. Use the GFS for steering setups, dont get caught up in the exact pinpoint location of the L.

[ROCK]

Looking at 500...Central GOM looks to be in great shape (and this is not that far out). I dont know why EURO keeps doing that but this looks like a NEGOM problem to me.

b/c the EURO is sniffing something that you aren't... .....EURO oput at 2pm...some of you might be able to see it around 12....hopefully...

[gatorcane]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

138 just west of Tampa

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock is a bonafide EURO hugger now! Fan club president, to be exact!!!!!

[gatorcane]

so the 12Z GFS nails Miami/Ft.Lauderdale, takes Ike WNW nails Naples then up the coast and stalls Ike just west of Tampa nailing it also.

[Sabanic]

Looking at 500...Central GOM looks to be in great shape (and this is not that far out). I dont know why EURO keeps doing that but this looks like a NEGOM problem to me. But what do I know?

Okay stupid question, but what is really considered Eastern GOM? I would think from TX/MX line to around Galveston to be Western GOM, Galveston to Western Panhandle to be Central, and beyond that to be Eastern GOM.

Am I close ?

[ROCK]

Im not buying into the lousy GFS at all...it's not consistent...hasn't been performing well since...Fay...which ironically was the last storm it actually saw in it's runs at the proper intensity


Not to mention Ike is dipping WSW far more significantly then GFS indicates...extrapolate that and Ike is under Florida.


Next model run please.

GFS was pretty good with Gustav, calling for central/SE LA landfall. Use the GFS for steering setups, dont get caught up in the exact pinpoint location of the L.

I agree.....look at the ridging..


BTW- one of the first EURO runs was this exact scenario a few days ago......

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

This thing just stalls over fl in probably the nastiest GFS Run in history..