ATL: IKE Discussion

[shah8]

This is shaping up to be pretty serious. Any mistakes in intensity for Hanna means uber-stretch of emergency services and infrastructure repair--on top of the recovery effort ongoing for the areas hit by Gustav, which despite not being Katrina, was no Lili.

[tgenius]

If there was doubt for people in Miami to put up shutters.. I think that window is going to slowly start closing.. its going to be REAL close either way... and better safe then sorry.

That said, I'm putting mine up tommorow.

[Evil Jeremy]

What really worries me about the new GFS run is that it does not loose the storm at all, and it looks like it uses a good intensity. And it also looks like to me that Ike is moving more westward rather than WSW now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[sweetpea]

Can someone please post a link to the model?

[Sanibel]

Over the next hours Ike will either track in a mild curve on the forecast points or maintain more of a straighter WSW track more into the GFDL track.

[gatorcane]

Ike hanging of the coast of West Florida now..barely moving:

[tolakram]

What really worries me about the new GFS run is that it does not loose the storm at all, and it looks like it uses a good intensity. And it also looks like to me that Ike is moving more westward rather than WSW now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Follow the eye spot not the overall pattern which is expanding to the north. Recon is going in at a good time because I think Ike is recovering from the latest bout of shear.

[Windy]

ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida

Not GOM Bound

Whoa, there, Tex. You have to be careful with that thing we call the English language. If someone didn't know better, they'd think you just said that you knew where Ike would go and made a forecast.

[shah8]

I think this is important...What's the shape of the curve? What's the x for entry, y for exit, and z for furthest west?

[tolakram]

Don't forget about the model thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102848

[DanKellFla]

Now I am really nervous. Maybe Ike will break the high pressure ridge and recurve north. Not that it really matters as far as preparations are concerned. If the storm is 24 hours away and you have storm panels, forget it. It will be too windy to put those up.

[BlueIce]

I didnt see if anyone had posted what Dr. Jeff Masters from Weather Underground was thinking.. here it is.

Track forecast for Ike
Ike has begun a west-southwest motion in recent hours, which increases the probability that the hurricane will enter the Southeast Bahama Islands on Sunday. The computer models which called for this more southerly path include the GFDL and HWRF models. With its latest run (06Z, 2am EDT) the GFDL takes Ike through the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 3 hurricane early Sunday morning. The HWRF has the same track, but makes Ike a Category 4. The two models then diverge, with the GFDL taking Ike into eastern Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Monday, and along the length of Cuba into the Florida Keys as a Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday morning. The HWRF has Ike skirting the northern coast of Cuba, arriving at Key Largo, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday night.

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the path of Ike once the storm reaches the vicinity of South Florida, since a trough of low pressure capable of turning Ike to the north will be passing to the north. A turn to the north over South Florida, or just on either side of the state is possible. One possible track, similar to the NOGAPS model forecast, takes Ike near or over Miami, then northwards towards North Carolina. This is a track similar to Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Another feasible track, similar to the HWRF solution, is like Hurricane Donna of 1960, which blasted through the Keys as a Category 4 hurricane, then up the west coast of Florida.

It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).

Florida Keys are at high risk
The Florida Keys are highly vulnerable to hurricanes, and are at great risk from Ike. With only one road connecting the Keys to the mainland, a 48-72 hours are required to evacuate the Keys. Tropical storm force winds can be expected in the Keys on Tuesday afternoon, which means officials in the Keys may need to start ordering evacuations on Saturday. This would likely begin as an evacuation of visitors and tourists on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning.

[tpr1967]

I'm surprised not more people from sw and west central coast not posting on here.
Considering the storm will effect them to, i know i'm from bradenton.

[KWT]

Follow the eye spot not the overall pattern which is expanding to the north. Recon is going in at a good time because I think Ike is recovering from the latest bout of shear.

Hmm, eye is starting to cloud over but the overall state of the northern eyewall does seem to be a little better, I think there may be just enough there to allow this to stay at major status but all depends on what recon finds.

May have lifted up a touch from 260 over the last hour but longer term motion is certainly around the 260 mark.

[Full8s]

I'm surprised not more people from sw and west central coast not posting on here.
Considering the storm will effect them to, i know i'm from bradenton.

I asked about the potential effects of Ike on the Tampa area, to no avail.... I also stated that I knew it was nothing but conjecture at this point, but was curious none-the-less.

[GeneratorPower]

WDBO radio in Orlando just ran a report from an Accuweather guy saying Ike would possibly follow a Hanna track and recurve, posing no threat to Florida.

EDIT: Just to note, I think that's ridiculous.

[southerngale]

We have a models thread for Ike... please use it.

[karenfromheaven]

I know that no one wants to stick their necks out, and at this point its only conjecture since Ike is still so far out, but in everyone's opinions what are the chances of any major impact in the Tampa area?

I'm just north of Tampa, and am admittedly under-prepared for a hit... (I know, better safe than sorry, etc...)

Thanks in advance...

-JS

The nice thing about the official NHC website is that you don't need our opinions to answer this question. According to their experimental hurricane wind probability graphic, your chances as of right now, of receiving hurricane-force winds is 5-10%.

Check out the link here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents
To anyone reading this who is trying to decide what to do, keep in mind that for those far out in the cone, you are looking at a low-probability event at any one particular location in the cone. What you have to decide is, are you prepared to accept the outcome of guessing wrong on the low-probability event? Or are you willing to fold your hand and accept a small loss now to avert losing everything? Think of it this way: if you had to leave on a trip to Europe today and had to decide about putting up shutters today, you have a 90-95% chance the hurricane will miss you (based on today's best official information for Tampa). Would you be willing to leave the shutters off with those odds? Only you can answer that question.

[haml8]

ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida

Not GOM Bound

Not according to the ECMWF run... looks like it doesn't want to run North until well accross the EGOM

[BlueIce]

I'm surprised not more people from sw and west central coast not posting on here.
Considering the storm will effect them to, i know i'm from bradenton.

I asked about the potential effects of Ike on the Tampa area, to no avail.... I also stated that I knew it was nothing but conjecture at this point, but was curious none-the-less.

From my previous post. Dr. Masters Opinion.

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).