ATL: IKE Discussion

[greels]

WDBO radio in Orlando just ran a report from an Accuweather guy saying Ike would possibly follow a Hanna track and recurve, posing no threat to Florida.

EDIT: Just to note, I think that's ridiculous.

Yep thats totally crazy given pretty much no models show that anymore...I think that gives such a terrible message out.

Cycloneye, no I just think the inner core has opened and finally surcome to the shear to a degree, I suspect with that now happening we have a cat-2...once the shear eases off this probably shouldn't have too much trouble strengthening again but we shall have to wait and see...

Still would be expecting a cat-3 through the T&C sadly.

Please keep the people here in the Turks and Caicos in your thoughts and prayers......we are still trying to recover from Hanna's wrath and now we have Ike about to land on our door.

Anyone who can afford the ticket price of a flight off here are doing so....however those folks are truly the excpetion here.

Ironically enough, it is a warm and sunny day here. This will change soon.
Gretchen

[Dave]

I was 9 yrs old and living in Naples when Donna went through. Though I don't remember a lot, I do remember it was bad. Watching for my parents now who live in Bonita Shores while working recon for Hanna at this time.

[TheShrimper]

Depends on the track. I live in Matlacha and if it comes in south, we have no water issues. North, all bets are off depending on windfield, angle, storm size. Too bad it couldn't just hit the Cape and leave Matlacha alone. That would eliminate some of the "grow" houses.

[Full8s]

[/quote="greels"]Please keep the people here in the Turks and Caicos in your thoughts and prayers......we are still trying to recover from Hanna's wrath and now we have Ike about to land on our door.

Anyone who can afford the ticket price of a flight off here are doing so....however those folks are truly the excpetion here.

Ironically enough, it is a warm and sunny day here. This will change soon.
Gretchen[/quote]


It makes my stomach turn to think of the potential fallout in T&C... Know that my thoughts and prayers are with you all... Hold on tight, it just may be a little tiny bit windy soon...

[cape_escape]

Depends on the track. I live in Matlacha and if it comes in south, we have no water issues. North, all bets are off depending on windfield, angle, storm size. Too bad it couldn't just hit the Cape and leave Matlacha alone. That would eliminate some of the "grow" houses.

Just hit the cape?? hey wait a min! I live here and I don't want it , and we don't have a gow house! Nor do any of my neighbors that I know of...

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, I've heard a lot about the effects of Donna on Ft. Myers and Naples, but not about Cape Coral. If Ike should take a close path, what is your view of What would happen here in the Cape? I live right off of Burnt Store and Pine Island.

Burnt Store Road area is practically right on the water off Matlacha 'channel'. It would be an "A" level surge zone, or maybe B level if you have some elevation, and a mandatory evacuation. Hard to say because as Frank2 says each storm is different. There would be a good chance at a high surge with a category 4 storm.

if I lived where you live and another Donna was coming at me I'd be out of there.

[KWT]

The northern quadrant still seems to be recovering at this stage and the eye is still popping in and out though wit hthe northern quadrant starting to beef up a little the worst of the shear may well be just past it.

Also on the 4hr motion Ike will pass right through the next forecast point but of course too early to tell if any wobbles may put the center a touch off course or not.

[tekno]

was a young fellow when donna came thru....family lived in st pete then
remember my mother was very upset since father was out of town on biz trip

my older brother and i often talk about that storm.....we thought it was fun.....strange how age changes you...lol

[TheShrimper]

The residents of the Bahamas didn't just fall off the tomato trucks...they know the drill and it's not their first rodeo. They will be fine, their structures are not to be confused with those on Hispanola, those I have seen in the Turks are superb

[cape_escape]

Sanibel, I've heard a lot about the effects of Donna on Ft. Myers and Naples, but not about Cape Coral. If Ike should take a close path, what is your view of What would happen here in the Cape? I live right off of Burnt Store and Pine Island.

Burnt Store Road area is practically right on the water off Matlacha 'channel'. It would be an "A" level surge zone, or maybe B level if you have some elevation, and a mandatory evacuation. Hard to say because as Frank2 says each storm is different. There would be a good chance at a high surge with a category 4 storm.

if I lived where you live and another Donna was coming at me I'd be out of there.

Thank you Sanibel! I'll be watching it close!

[cape_escape]

Alright already. Enough of the West coast posters, this IS really an east coast board!

Not anymore...lol The can of worms has been opend!

[TheShrimper]

Sanibel, you obviously were not here in Donna. You could walk across Charlotte Harbor from Bokeelia to Cape Haze and my initials are not J.C.

[BlueIce]

I like Masters, but he missed the boat with Gusie (IMHO). Is he climbing mountains in Alaska?

I thought he did as well as the NHC as far as judgment on when to act and where the system would effect the US mainland.

[KWT]

Please keep the people here in the Turks and Caicos in your thoughts and prayers......we are still trying to recover from Hanna's wrath and now we have Ike about to land on our door.

Anyone who can afford the ticket price of a flight off here are doing so....however those folks are truly the excpetion here.

Ironically enough, it is a warm and sunny day here. This will change soon.
Gretchen

You've been getting my prayers for the last few days once it became obvious Ike was coming through. I'm hoping that Ike is still getting hampered by shear as it comes through, though the latest NHC is suggesting that it may be strengthening again as it comes through, either way Ike will be a dangerous and strong hurricane so hopefully it all goes well out there.

[El Nino]

Can someone tell me what will be the shear at D5 ? Thank you.

[CrazyC83]

Can someone tell me what will be the shear at D5 ? Thank you.

Virtually inexistant if the current models hold.

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, you obviously were not here in Donna. You could walk across Charlotte Harbor from Bokeelia to Cape Haze and my initials are not J.C.

Nope. I read accounts in the News Press around the time of Charley. The story told of a family in Ft Myers Beach that abandoned their failing house at the height of the storm to go to their boat. They rode out the storm there safely. Later they went back and saw the high water line 18 feet up the side of their cistern. The mother in law was so traumatized she moved out and refused to come back to Ft Myers Beach.

[bucman1]

Never enough West Coasters!!!

I'm right outside the Tampa Bay area(Riverview) and i'm clued to the board

like alot of you obsessively-The odds are due that Tampa is due for hit of some kind.

May be next week or next year-its where we live-just have a plan.

Craig

[HurricaneQueen]

For the last couple of days, I have been considering opening a new thread for the West Coast of FL residents. It looks as if we may have enough people so let's see what happens by say tonight or early tomorrow and then we might have our own thread.

Lynn

And Gretchen, please stay safe down there in Provo.

[KWT]

Yeah the shear should be peaking around now, then steadily decrease and by 36-48hrs unless something crops up unexepcted (which can happen as we've seen numerous times) there is likely to be very little shear that can stop Ike being a powerful major hurricane, how powerful I really wouldn't want to say but its still got a very tight inner core...