ATL: IKE Discussion

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El Nino
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2381 Postby El Nino » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:22 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
El Nino wrote:Can someone tell me what will be the shear at D5 ? Thank you.


Virtually inexistant if the current models hold.


Then, why is there a weakening at D5 ? Is that landinteraction ? Ike is still offshore and convection too.
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#2382 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:23 pm

Latest update supports 95-100 kt. The pressure of 959 is actually a bit lower than I expected; I figured the pressures were a bit higher than the NHC estimates all along due to the small size of the storm.
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Re: ATL: IKE Recon Discussion

#2383 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:23 pm

959 mb extrap, 108 kt FL.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2384 Postby bucman1 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:25 pm

Do we know the actual size of Ie and is it exspected to grow(in size)?
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Re:

#2385 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:25 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:WDBO radio in Orlando just ran a report from an Accuweather guy saying Ike would possibly follow a Hanna track and recurve, posing no threat to Florida.

EDIT: Just to note, I think that's ridiculous.


Yeah, I heard that this morning when he was talking to Jim Turner live, but that was way before the models really began to swing further west, but knowing Jack Boston of Accuweather, the way he constantly downplays every hurricane threat including those that are slamming right into us now he'd be saying that all is still well in that the storm will now miss us to the south. :lol:
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Re: ATL: IKE Recon Discussion

#2386 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:26 pm

I think it will be downgraded to a cat 2 with those winds,unless they find stronger winds in the NE quad.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2387 Postby cape_escape » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:26 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:For the last couple of days, I have been considering opening a new thread for the West Coast of FL residents. It looks as if we may have enough people so let's see what happens by say tonight or early tomorrow and then we might have our own thread.

Lynn :cheesy:

And Gretchen, please stay safe down there in Provo.


That sounds like a pretty good idea!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2388 Postby NEXRAD » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:28 pm

bucman1 wrote:Do we know the actual size of Ie and is it exspected to grow(in size)?


The previous wind radii/storm size was based on estimates as far as I can tell. The official NHC/TPC forecast does call for Ike to become a larger storm in terms of wind radii.

- Jay
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#2389 Postby Vortex » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:29 pm

12Z nogaps rakes the state-Very much like donna
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Re: Re:

#2390 Postby otowntiger » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:30 pm

haml8 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida :eek:

Not GOM Bound


Not according to the ECMWF run... looks like it doesn't want to run North until well accross the EGOM


And now it begins. Of course. It's the Texas/LA/Miss/Al/Panhandler's vs the South FLorida/East coasters.
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#2391 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:32 pm

Very tough call for the NHC, recon found FL of 108kts, thats around 97.2kts if you use a 0.90 reduction. Probably supports the idea of 95kts hurricane unless higher winds are found in this mission which is quite possible.

For now Ike is a small hurricane, tight compact but it may well get larger as it sorts itself out better again, which is expected to occur.
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Re: Re:

#2392 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:32 pm

otowntiger wrote:
haml8 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida :eek:

Not GOM Bound


Not according to the ECMWF run... looks like it doesn't want to run North until well accross the EGOM


And now it begins. Of course. It's the Texas/LA/Miss/Al/Panhandler's vs the South FLorida/East coasters.


If that's the case then they must be getting nervous in SFL watching the model support slipping away... :lol:


But in all seriousness...SFL is practically guaranteed some action for this storm. Anyone on the map can agree to that.
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#2393 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:34 pm

Yep I agree probably down to 95kts, though its close using the 0.90 reduction.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2394 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:36 pm

Per Accuweather:
According to AccuWeather.com Forecasting Director Ken Reeves, "If Ike maintains its strength, it will either plow into Florida or turn to the north on a path similar to Hanna. There is a lesser potential for a weakened Ike to pass through the Straits of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico."
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2395 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:38 pm

Blown_away wrote:
Per Accuweather:
According to AccuWeather.com Forecasting Director Ken Reeves, "If Ike maintains its strength, it will either plow into Florida or turn to the north on a path similar to Hanna. There is a lesser potential for a weakened Ike to pass through the Straits of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico."



No its looking like he will be South of Florida.. yea its still a few days away but not that far out anymore
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Re: Re:

#2396 Postby stormy1970al » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:41 pm

Please keep the people here in the Turks and Caicos in your thoughts and prayers......we are still trying to recover from Hanna's wrath and now we have Ike about to land on our door.

Anyone who can afford the ticket price of a flight off here are doing so....however those folks are truly the excpetion here.

Ironically enough, it is a warm and sunny day here. This will change soon.
Gretchen


Gretchen,
Stay safe and I will be saying prayers for your area.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2397 Postby hsvwx » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:41 pm

Might just be a temporary thing, but looks as though convection is building to the north of the center again and the shear maybe starting to relax. He sure is a small little guy though!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
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#2398 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:41 pm

LIke the NHC discussion hinted at, the eyewall has deteriorated and Ike has no eye.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2399 Postby haml8 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:42 pm

It would be pretty historical if it made it into the GOM with some serious punch, right?? That doesn't happen too often right?


Image
Last edited by haml8 on Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 3 - Discussion

#2400 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:42 pm

Keep on topic Please..Posts will be deleted without warning and Suspensions may be issued
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