ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#961 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:53 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:The problem is everyone has their own model likes and if one shows something you don't want it to see, then it's wrong.

EURO has been poor this season, nogaps/ukmet (no thanks). GFDL has had it's problems as has the rest.

This far out, I don't look @ the L position. Look at the 500. That will tell you where its likely headed. For now, Florida should prepare. After that, people should pay attention, not panic and model hop.



You should talk.... :lol: the EURO has been decent....as has the GFDL and HWRF.......
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Re: Re:

#962 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 05, 2008 11:54 am

smw1981 wrote:I may be wrong, but I don't think that is right either! GFDL consistently had Gustav hitting around Mississippi (sometimes closer to Mobile, and sometimes closer to Louisiana, but right around Mississippi) until Saturday night/Sunday, and Gustav hit 24-36 hours later. IMO, that was not superb!


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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#963 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:13 pm

HWRF coming in..909mb(nested) approaching Florida straits
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#964 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:19 pm

Bahamas would be in the NE quadrant on this run, I'd imagine unless the core was super compact they'd get hurricane winds if the HWRF was right.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#965 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:21 pm

Ivanhater wrote:HWRF coming in..909mb(nested) approaching Florida straits



share your link....IH....you owe me.... :lol:
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#966 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:22 pm

New UKMET takes it to the central Gulf.... Pretty well south of the keys....
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#967 Postby loxahatchee13 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:22 pm

is hwrf n or s of where it was last run, (i know each individual run dosen't matter)
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Re:

#968 Postby El Nino » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:24 pm

chris_fit wrote:New UKMET takes it to the central Gulf.... Pretty well south of the keys....


Oh no, NOT AGAIN !
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Re:

#969 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:25 pm

chris_fit wrote:New UKMET takes it to the central Gulf.... Pretty well south of the keys....


link it please....I dont like to wait for mine to update... :D
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#970 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:27 pm

12z UKMET says hello GOM!



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 62.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2008 23.4N 62.6W STRONG

00UTC 06.09.2008 22.3N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 22.6N 67.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 22.2N 70.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 22.4N 72.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 22.3N 75.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 22.4N 78.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 22.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 23.3N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2008 24.3N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 89.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

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Re: Re:

#971 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:28 pm

ROCK wrote:
chris_fit wrote:New UKMET takes it to the central Gulf.... Pretty well south of the keys....


link it please....I dont like to wait for mine to update... :D



It's the dark blue line with squares.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#972 Postby Sabanic » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET says hello GOM!



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 62.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2008 23.4N 62.6W STRONG

00UTC 06.09.2008 22.3N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 22.6N 67.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 22.2N 70.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 22.4N 72.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 22.3N 75.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 22.4N 78.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 22.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 23.3N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2008 24.3N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 89.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



Texas
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Weatherfreak000

#973 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:30 pm

Bout ready to make that infamous call about a GOM situation...


"Take it to the bank"
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Re:

#974 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:31 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Bout ready to make that infamous call about a GOM situation...


"Take it to the bank"


Weather- I made that call 3 days ago and a 12 pk of shiner on the line.... :D little late....
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#975 Postby El Nino » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET says hello GOM!



HURRICANE IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 62.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2008 23.4N 62.6W STRONG

00UTC 06.09.2008 22.3N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 06.09.2008 22.6N 67.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2008 22.2N 70.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 22.4N 72.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2008 22.3N 75.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 22.4N 78.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 22.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2008 23.3N 81.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2008 23.8N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2008 24.3N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.09.2008 24.9N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2008 25.6N 89.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



Land interaction with Cuba ?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#976 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:33 pm

12z GFDL ends SW of NAPLES:

WHXX04 KWBC 051729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.3 62.0 260./14.9
6 23.1 63.3 263./12.3
12 22.8 64.5 252./11.4
18 22.5 65.7 258./11.2
24 22.2 67.1 257./13.8
30 21.7 68.5 252./13.7
36 21.4 69.7 256./11.7
42 21.2 70.8 259./10.4
48 21.2 72.2 270./13.2
54 20.9 73.4 257./11.5
60 20.7 74.5 259./10.1
66 20.8 75.5 276./ 9.0
72 20.9 76.8 274./12.3
78 21.0 77.8 273./ 9.4
84 21.2 78.6 289./ 8.3
90 21.6 79.4 290./ 8.4
96 22.2 80.2 308./ 9.3
102 22.7 81.0 305./ 8.7
108 23.4 81.3 334./ 7.8
114 24.0 82.0 313./ 8.7
120 24.5 82.4 322./ 6.3
126 25.4 82.8 335./ 9.4
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#977 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:34 pm

Where's the new GFDL? Supposed to come out at 1:30pm right?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#978 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:34 pm

Land interaction with Cuba ?


UKMET brushes north coast.
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Re: Re:

#979 Postby haml8 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:34 pm

ROCK wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Bout ready to make that infamous call about a GOM situation...


"Take it to the bank"


Weather- I made that call 3 days ago and a 12 pk of shiner on the line.... :D little late....



You bring the beer and I will sound the all clear siren :)

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Re:

#980 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 05, 2008 12:34 pm

chris_fit wrote:Where's the new GFDL? Supposed to come out at 1:30pm right?


Is over your post. :)
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