ATL: IKE Discussion

[TheShrimper]

I don't see anyone posting off topic Rainband??????

[KWT]

hsvwx, indeed though the eye really isn'ti mpressing me a great deal as it doesn't seem to have any staying power so to speak but convection does appear at least to be restrengthening on that northern side, a trend maybe to watch in the next 12hrs?

[Cookiely]

Might just be a temporary thing, but looks as though convection is building to the north of the center again and the shear maybe starting to relax. He sure is a small little guy though!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Its beautiful and looks more like a tornado on vis. The view from the space station of Ike were quite lovely.

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008


AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/051748.shtml

[Rainband]

I don't see anyone posting off topic Rainband??????

It's because they were deleted

[gboudx]

I don't see anyone posting off topic Rainband??????

Then you missed all the Fla east/west coast stuff.

[Bgator]

Looks like Ike is heading more west again, than Wsw.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like Ike is heading more west again, than Wsw.

I was thinking the same

[mvtrucking]

ut oh folks...at 126 hours Ike makes NNE hook over mainland metro South Florida

Not GOM Bound

Not according to the ECMWF run... looks like it doesn't want to run North until well accross the EGOM

And now it begins. Of course. It's the Texas/LA/Miss/Al/Panhandler's vs the South FLorida/East coasters.

I wouldn't want any part of this storm or any other. I moved to Monroe, from Baton Rouge thinking we would be in good shape from these storms. Not, we got hammered in north La from Gustave.Mostly rain, (Almost 10 inches very quickly & plenty of flash flooding) and still knocked out power to 66,000 + here in this small city. (About 70% of homes here)
I would really like to see the Atlantic keep Mr. Ike..

[chris_fit]

Ike has been trying to get some convection back on the northern side of the center. Currently, because of the shear, intense convection is concentrated on the southern half. I have a feeling the track will be slightly north of the NHC in the short term (18-28H,) AFTER the shear relaxes, due to the fact that the convection on the southern side will "swing around" if you will and it's momentum will give Ike a bump to the north.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 051730
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE THE OR/CA COAST
WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTH TO THE
U.S. PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING REACHED FROM THE NE U.S. NORTH ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A COLD FRONT REACHED SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGED OVER THE SE U.S. TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF FL. HURRICANE IKE IS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WELL EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HANNA WILL TAKE
THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL OUT OF MUCH OF THE AREA BY EVENING AND
OUT OF THE FAR NORTH DURING THE LATE EVENING.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS SOUTH FL SAT...IN THE WAKE
OF HANNA...AND THEN LIFTS NORTH SUN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING IKE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
HURRICANE IKE TO DOMINATE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WITH LATEST FORECAST POSITIONING IKE SE
OF FL MON THEN IN THE FL STRAITS/KEYS AREA TUE THEN INTO THE SE GULF
WED AND SOMEWHERE IN THE E CENTRAL GULF THU. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS FOR
EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES. WITH IKE
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION/AREA EXPECT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS/MOISTURE/WINDS AS EARLY AS MONDAY THEN FURTHER INCREASING
TUE-WED INTO THU. THE CURRENT 5 DAY CONE OF UNCERTAINTY COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SYSTEM TO SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Its beautiful and looks more like a tornado on vis. The view from the space station of Ike were quite lovely.

It does look like a tornado!!!

[KWT]

Well there goes the idea that Ike has weakened a great deal, dropsonde just found 108kts at the surface...

Anyway I'm still seeing 260 roughly but I agree its a little more westerly then it was about 9hrs ago however.

[hsvwx]

Even though the eye has become cloud covered, I am sure its inner core is still pretty well maintained. It had a tough fight through the shear, and I am not sure if the current burst of convection can be maintained on its north side. If it can, it looks as though he has made it through the worst of the conditions he will encounter in the next several days. Looks as though the next possibility of weakening will be any land interaction. Hopefully Hanna has cooled the waters over the Bahamas enough to keep Ike from getting too far out of control.

[gtsmith]

hope this isn't off-topic...but doesn't ike look a bit like the tazmanian devil (when he was spun up that is) in the old looney tunes cartoons?

[cycloneye]

SW-side eyewall: surface wind 108 kt

So we thought that Ike was weakening bigtime,but its not.

[rockyman]

New blog from ABC33/40 in Birmingham
"Ike Potentially Trouble"

http://www.alabamawx.com/

[KWT]

Yep there goes that cat-2 idea cycloneye!!

[cycloneye]

WTNT64 KNHC 051748
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM AST FRI SEP 05 2008


AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NO OTHER CHANGES ARE REQUIRED FROM THE 1100 AM ADVISORY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[KWT]

hsvwx, yep looks like Ike is now slowly heading into a region of less shear which is not a good thing for the islands in the way of it in the next 36-48hrs.

I see the SE Bahamas and the T&C have issued hurricane warnings, not all that surprising really they are needed.

Current estimate based on dropsonde would be 105kts, they could with 110kts but nothing at FL supports that sort of raise just yet...certainly surprising to see though given the presentation isn't too stunning right now though it is slowly improving.