ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[NEXRAD]

CIMSS analysis shows increased shear trends over the Florida Straits. Judging from the flow, I'd expect this shear to work north. Granted, it's not as intense as what Hanna's previously experienced, but it still is not ideal conditions. Hanna will also be entering slightly cooler water temperatures.

- Jay

But if an UL anticyclone moves over that should reduce shear over Hanna but increase shear over FL, right, or am I wrong? I thought the periphery of an UL anticyclone had high shear but the center has the low shear?

Hanna is getting better organized it appears.
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 135 / 5NM

Yes, however Hanna is not directly under the upper level ridge. The storm remains west of the ridge axis, and judging from the upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and troughing farther northwest, this looks likely to remain the case.

- Jay

[Stormtrack03]

I see N to NNE motion on the visible (and storm location now east of NHC pts) can anyone verify this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Lowpressure]

I see N to NNE motion on the visible (and storm location now east of NHC pts) can anyone verify this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Last recon fix did have the center fix at aprox 29.43 and 78.55. Seems a bit dramatic for a path change so suddenly. Not sure that is movement or LLC moving around again. Winds are coming up in that area just outisde the fix center, highest winds five miles from center fix according to recon. 70kts at FL.

[txwatcher91]

CIMSS analysis shows increased shear trends over the Florida Straits. Judging from the flow, I'd expect this shear to work north. Granted, it's not as intense as what Hanna's previously experienced, but it still is not ideal conditions. Hanna will also be entering slightly cooler water temperatures.

- Jay

But if an UL anticyclone moves over that should reduce shear over Hanna but increase shear over FL, right, or am I wrong? I thought the periphery of an UL anticyclone had high shear but the center has the low shear?

Hanna is getting better organized it appears.
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 135 / 5NM

Yes, however Hanna is not directly under the upper level ridge. The storm remains west of the ridge axis, and judging from the upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and troughing farther northwest, this looks likely to remain the case.

- Jay

Well, that could be the case. All I know is that the UL anticyclone is getting closer to Hanna and thus reducing shear. Whether or not it moves over her I don't know.

Also, I just remembered something, the shear over Florida is from Hanna's outflow, CIMSS doesn't account for outflow so when shear increases around a TS like that it can sometimes be outflow. In this case, WV suggests it is the ouflow creating the shear, as I see no thunderstorms anywhere near Hanna being sheared much. There may be 10kts or so, but that shouldn't inhibit development. Anyway, these are just my thoughts and observations. I could be completely wrong, who knows?

[txwatcher91]

I see N to NNE motion on the visible (and storm location now east of NHC pts) can anyone verify this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see it too and radar shows the same. I think the turn north has begun.

[Lowpressure]

I see N to NNE motion on the visible (and storm location now east of NHC pts) can anyone verify this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see it too and radar shows the same. I think the turn north has begun.

Jacksonville long range looks be be around 345. Again long range and mid level and difficult to determine for sure.

[gurutc]

The rain has started here in Columbia, SC.

[sunnyday]

As I said last night, if a location is in the cone early on, the cone usually changes. SE Fl was ready for a hit last night (WPB tv met), and now today, the storm is going south and will go into the Gulf and be near extreme SW FL. Thankfully, SE fl dodged the bullet again. I'm aware that once in a while a location in the cone early will be the point of impact, but not often.

[UpTheCreek]

As I said last night, if a location is in the cone early on, the cone usually changes. SE Fl was ready for a hit last night (WPB tv met), and now today, the storm is going south and will go into the Gulf and be near extreme SW FL. Thankfully, SE fl dodged the bullet again. I'm aware that once in a while a location in the cone early will be the point of impact, but not often.

Are you in the wrong thread?

[txwatcher91]

Look at this, 75kt FL!
URNT15 KNHC 051745
AF300 1108A HANNA HDOB 32 20080905
173330 2909N 07700W 8426 01507 0021 +168 +000 191068 069 062 004 00
173400 2911N 07659W 8423 01509 0021 +165 +000 191068 068 061 007 03
173430 2914N 07659W 8420 01512 0017 +169 +000 190070 071 061 006 03
173500 2916N 07659W 8423 01507 0016 +170 +000 188069 070 061 006 03
173530 2919N 07700W 8422 01507 0015 +169 +000 186070 070 062 004 00
173600 2921N 07700W 8424 01503 0014 +168 +000 184071 071 063 003 00
173630 2924N 07701W 8420 01508 0015 +166 +000 183070 071 063 004 00
173700 2926N 07702W 8427 01496 0015 +162 +000 183071 072 063 003 00
173730 2929N 07702W 8423 01499 0012 +165 +000 182069 070 063 004 00
173800 2931N 07703W 8424 01499 0013 +161 +000 181070 070 063 004 00
173830 2934N 07703W 8422 01498 0008 +167 +000 181071 072 065 003 00
173900 2937N 07703W 8422 01499 0005 +171 +000 181072 072 064 004 00
173930 2939N 07703W 8422 01500 0004 +173 +000 181072 072 064 002 00
174000 2942N 07703W 8421 01496 0007 +167 +000 176073 074 063 004 00
174030 2944N 07702W 8427 01493 0009 +163 +000 175075 075 068 000 00
174100 2947N 07702W 8432 01489 0005 +170 +000 178073 074 065 000 03
174130 2949N 07702W 8424 01498 0007 +169 +000 178072 073 068 000 03
174200 2952N 07701W 8422 01501 0005 +175 +000 176070 070 999 999 03
174230 2954N 07701W 8430 01493 0007 +174 +000 174070 071 999 999 03
174300 2957N 07701W 8418 01506 0007 +171 +000 173070 071 999 999 03
$$

[Okibeach]

First squall line just moved through here. Good downpour for a few minutes and some minor gusts, heading inland now.

[Brent]

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THIS
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

[CrazyC83]

75 kt FL winds equate to 60 kt at the surface at the level they are flying.

[GaryOBX]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FARTHER EAST THAT EARLIER REPORTED.

Looks like we need to adjust the 11:00 track about a degree east, wouldn't you think? That also leaves more time over warm waters, right?

[JtSmarts]

Was the 64Kt SFMR legit?

[Thunder44]

Was the 64Kt SFMR legit?

What about the 68kt SFMR?

[JtSmarts]

Was the 64Kt SFMR legit?

What about the 68kt SFMR?

Wow, she is really trying to ramp up before landfall.

[KWT]

Wow that 68kts looks good and I can't see anything wrong with it, that would support hurricane Hanna...now that would be a shocker if its ramping up before landfall!

[tolakram]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FARTHER EAST THAT EARLIER REPORTED. AT
200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...255 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

Note the above, the connecting line does not indicate direction.

[carversteve]

With that new position and how she looks on visible, plus being over warm water longer i would say we are close to having a hurricane,if we don't already!!Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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