ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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miamijaaz
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#1021 Postby miamijaaz » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:15 pm

It seems to me the important thing to note is that now most models (except the UKMET) show a significant curve NW-NNW-N at days 3 and 4 of the forecast period. That tells me that there IS a weakness there. The million dollar question is where will the weakness be located 3-4 days from now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1022 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:17 pm



that would put the NE quad over the se florida metro and really put a hurt on people if it verifies, you dont need anything close to a direct hit from a major to feel the punch
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#1023 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:18 pm

NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.
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Re:

#1024 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:20 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


good, i hope it verifies next week
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1025 Postby sponger » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:20 pm

HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.
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Re:

#1026 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:20 pm

chris_fit wrote:Comments on the new GFDL....

Look at the N component at the end of the track... It's between NW and NNW if I'm doing this correctly... Pretty much on it's way to a re curve if that weakness persists.


Plus it does not go as far W as previous runs. Idea may be right but the SW dive then sudden NNW turn is to extreme IMO.
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Re:

#1027 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:21 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.



I still think this goes south of Fla but I would like to say that the HWRF and GFS are actually north of the NHC track
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1028 Postby El Nino » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:22 pm

sponger wrote:HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.


Image ?
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Re:

#1029 Postby superdeluxe » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:24 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1030 Postby gboudx » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:24 pm

El Nino wrote:
sponger wrote:HRWF looks ugly! Like a bad b movie.


Image ?


See previous page.
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Re: Re:

#1031 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:33 pm

superdeluxe wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?


UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.
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Re: Re:

#1032 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:34 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
superdeluxe wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?


UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.


Thats wrong the HWRF is NORTH look at the run as is the GFS
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1033 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:34 pm

one problem I have with some of the models is that they seem "bias" in the direction of tropical cyclone's movements. In this case, as soon as Ike started moving WSW --- notice several models shifted left...

Yesterday when ike was moving WNW...several models were farther right....so when Ike makes that turn to the west and then WNW...watch several models shift right again.

When I look at the WV loop Ike's path is pretty clear and it looks like a path up through southern florida or near it looks very possible....:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1034 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:35 pm

Not really actually, iots really on,y the GFDL thats south of the NHC ,all the other modelsthus far on the 12z are close to the NHC, they won't shift southwards I sholudn't think.

12z ECM at 48hrs a touch north of before, 22N 73W roughly but heading towards Cuba it seems...
Last edited by KWT on Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1035 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:35 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
superdeluxe wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?


UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.


They will ignore the UK im sure, The Nogaps is right on thier track,The HWRF is east of thier track..An you happened to miss the GFS is Further East and the GFDL is right of thier track?
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Re: Re:

#1036 Postby Bgator » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:35 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
superdeluxe wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is North of all global models.


Track shift south is imminent.


Why would you write that? When there still isn't a consensus with the models..?


UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...HWRF...EURO.....all South of the past NHC track.


It's a guarantee...they will shift track.


NOGAPS is basically with the NHC track, GFDL has ALWAYS been below the track, HWRF, hits land the same as the NHC track, UKMET, i doubt they will take into consideration, and the EURO has also been to the south the whole time. Maybe a SLIGHT shift south, but nothing major.

Does someone have a link to the EURO?
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#1037 Postby rockyman » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:38 pm

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#1038 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:39 pm

From what I've hearing ECNM has landfall....in Texas...after crossing Cuba... :eek:
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1039 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:41 pm

I dont see to much of a track shift since the Nhc has it going thru the keys which is in line with most relible models
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#1040 Postby Orlando_wx » Fri Sep 05, 2008 1:42 pm

what a total difference from yesterday with it being so far east i would like to hear wxman57 or afm on there thinking from yesterday to today..
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