ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[rockyman]

From what I've hearing ECNM has landfall....in Texas...after crossing Cuba...

yep...that's the word on the street

[Portastorm]

ROCK will love this 12z Euro run ... Ed Mahmoud, on the other hand, will not.

[haml8]

From what I've hearing ECNM has landfall....in Texas...after crossing Cuba...

yep...that's the word on the street

[cycloneye]

Where is our friend Ed from Texas?

[DESTRUCTION5]

From what I've hearing ECNM has landfall....in Texas...after crossing Cuba...

yep...that's the word on the street

That last nights?

[Wx_Warrior]

I model showing Texas 6+ days out? I like my chances.

[KWT]

The 12z run from today shows a very similar thing...thats 3 ECM runs in a row that has shown this set-up, getting increasingly tough to totally discount that when the UKMO also drives this westwards, track is sooo close to that of Rita, but starts a little further south over Cuba instead.

[Portastorm]

I model showing Texas 6+ days out? I like my chances.

That's fine Wx_Warrior ... but if Ike comes to calling next week at this time, I volunteer you and Ed for the "Texas Welcomes Ike" welcoming party at the beach!

[Bgator]

The 12z run from today shows a very similar thing...thats 3 ECM runs in a row that has shown this set-up, getting increasingly tough to totally discount that when the UKMO also drives this westwards, track is sooo close to that of Rita, but starts a little further south over Cuba instead.

You have a link to the 12z?

[NOLA 30N90W]

Eeerily simialr to Katrina's forecast path, where the NHC suddenly moved the 2nd projected landfall from Destin, to the Louisiana/Mississippi state line, within 72hrs. I am not forecasting such a dramatic shift, but it is what it is, with most of the models attempting to push Ike into the EGOM.

Not to wish Ike on anyone, but I do not want to remotely think about having to evacuate again. I would much prefer Ike to recurve prior to Florida. Can we all be so fortunate?

[Blown Away]

well based on the models runs today I'd expect a good shift left in the NHC guidance....
as I said, at the rate we are going mainland South Florida may get out of the cone by this weekend sometime.....

Come on Gator, really. It would not take much to bring this back to the E side of the Peninsula. Extreme EGOM is as far W as Ike will go IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO to Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090512!!/

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

This is pretty close to where NHC says..

[Wx_Warrior]

I guess we'll just have to wait and see....Go back to the early stages of the model thread and I'll stick to my NEGOM pick. I never said Texas wouldn't get any Hurricane this season. Just because EURO and the UKMET (joke) says something else, doesn't mean we have to bow down to it and that's the finished result of the storm. Yes, it's alarming but what are the chances of that model not moving again?

Ask Rock, I'm a EURO hugger. I have been disappointed with it this season.

[Weatherfreak000]

Model consensus is tight...definitely see no reason to disagree with it right now.

However...with EURO disagreeing..im not all too convinced. EURO has been a trend-setter for this storm...i'll await the next model runs before I cave on the EGOM curve scenario.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z EURO to Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090512!!/

Euro must see him missing the weakness?

[Portastorm]

12z EURO to Texas.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090512!!/

Captain Obvious says: "That would be a real disaster for Texas!"

[caneman]

Euro has been unreliable this season thus far. Per a NHC discussion a day or two ago, they stated GFS and GFDL have been the most reliable so if you're lookin to hug any models. May I suggest those 2.

[KWT]

ECM stalls Ike just offshore and takes nearly 3 days to bring him inland, sort of like Elena in that regard.

Very similar to the UKMO in terms of track, maybe a touch further south but both suggests Ike doesn't get caught by the weakness...I'm starting to wonder if the threat is larger to Cuba again

[mattpetre]

Looking more and more like the best scenario for everyone would be for Ike to get sheared to death like Josephine; I know that's less likely than my Corpus prediction, but man o' man I don't want to see another GOM storm.