ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[haml8]

Where is our friend Ed from Texas?

I mentioned that earlier and my post was deleted for being off topic I am sure he will be on tonight to give us his analysis showing how Texas is safe..

[haml8]

That last nights?[/quote]

No this was the last frame in a run from the Euro..

[Wx_Warrior]

Glad the ol' EURO is headed my way 8 days in advance. Rather see it now than in 3-4 day landfall cone.

[HouTXmetro]

EURO to TX

But seriously, nobody beleives that will happen.

[haml8]

Definitly better now than later! Sure to be MANY MANY shifts between now and then.... but then again rather not be in it at all, right?

[mattpetre]

Judging from current westward motion of the building ridge, I still am on board with a scenario that actually takes this across Cuba. Wait and see.

[Brent]

A bunch of tracks updated, and well, the NHC track won't be changing much. Pretty close to the middle

[KWT]

mattpetre, I'm starting to wonder because the GFS does sometimes overdo troughs outside 96hrs and it does bring down a pretty strong one in the 12z GFS though even that only makes a small weakness...

Remember Rita also went very far west a good deal later in September as well...

PS, UKMO is the worst case...a major hurricane hitting Havana square on from the east...

[haml8]

Fronts at 144 Hour

[ronjon]

A bunch of tracks updated, and well, the NHC track won't be changing much. Pretty close to the middle

Actually the model consensus track is the TVCN so that's where you can judge where the NHC is in regard to consensus.

[Buck]

PS, UKMO is the worst case...a major hurricane hitting Havana square on from the east...

And then hitting Tampa!

[sfwx]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID SEP 05/1200 UTC THRU SEP 09/0000 UTC

MODEL TRENDS...


...HURRICANE IKE...
THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD TRACK WITH IKE
THROUGH DAY 3...BUT AVERAGES ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH OF PREVIOUS NAM
GUIDANCE. THE 12Z GFS IS SOUTHWEST OF THE 00Z GFS THROUGH
07/00Z...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE 00Z GFS...
WITH AVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF 80 NM.

...

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...



...HURRICANE IKE...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK OF IKE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS...PARTICULARLY BY DAY
3...WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL
TPC FORECAST. THE CANADIAN IS FARTHER NORTH THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE BY 08/12Z. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN WAS ALSO MORE THAN 100
NM NORTH OF IKE'S OBSERVED POSITION AT 12Z.


...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF/SHTML...

JAMES

[Lifesgud2]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
144 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID SEP 05/1200 UTC THRU SEP 09/0000 UTC

MODEL TRENDS...


...HURRICANE IKE...
THE 12Z NAM MAINTAINS AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD TRACK WITH IKE
THROUGH DAY 3...BUT AVERAGES ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH OF PREVIOUS NAM
GUIDANCE. THE 12Z GFS IS SOUTHWEST OF THE 00Z GFS THROUGH
07/00Z...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE 00Z GFS...
WITH AVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF 80 NM.

...

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...



...HURRICANE IKE...
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK OF IKE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HRS...PARTICULARLY BY DAY
3...WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL
TPC FORECAST. THE CANADIAN IS FARTHER NORTH THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE BY 08/12Z. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN WAS ALSO MORE THAN 100
NM NORTH OF IKE'S OBSERVED POSITION AT 12Z.


...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF/SHTML...

JAMES

All dead links

[haml8]

This one isn't

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[GoneBabyGone]

Let's hope it doesn't split the difference and turn north later than expected into New Orleans.

[wjs3]

just delete the ellipsis (...) at the end of the URL.

[jhpigott]

looks like HPC doesn't buy the south of florida tracks just yet . . . plows right thru south florida

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav.html

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Judging from current westward motion of the building ridge, I still am on board with a scenario that actually takes this across Cuba. Wait and see.

A trip across the spine of Cuba would rip this storm to shreds, and then who knows where the remains would go.... Of course if it didn't follow the spine and just crossed it, may only just lose a category or 2.

[Weatherfreak000]

looks like HPC doesn't buy the south of florida tracks just yet . . . plows right thru south florida

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav.html

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav.html

That definitely isn't a very positive track...

And the recurve support continues to weaken?

[gatorcane]

TAFB doesn't buy south of Florida either: