ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

JAX short range radar picks up storm pretty well. With what appears to be a NW motion.

Going to see wobbling to the west and east.

[Lowpressure]

JAX short range radar picks up storm pretty well. With what appears to be a NW motion.

Going to see wobbling to the west and east.

My point is that it does not seem to be a due North course. The eastward adjustment was the LLC trying to establish itself more under the convection. This is still going west of north.

[jabber]

Looks like we are getting better outflow to the south and southeast. Less dry air. Again this is the best sub 980 TS I have ever seen.

[tolakram]

[Lowpressure]

Looks like core has become established and best guess it is centered around 30.9 and 78.9.

[Raebie]

The weather service in Charlotte just issued a flash flood watch:

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CABARRUS... DAVIE...IREDELL... MECKLENBURG... ROWAN AND UNION NC.

* FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLILNA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. WITH THE STORM MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I- 77. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AERA. AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA RECENTLY SAW VERY HEAVY FAIN...SOILS REMAIN MOIST...AND FLASHING FLOODING COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN.

[carversteve]

Sure looks like a cane from here!

[UpTheCreek]

Sure looks like a cane from here!

Are you in a plane flying over or what? Where's "here"???

[KWT]

Does look like its getting close to hurricane again, looks like its finally found the favorable conditions again with the convection wrapping very nicely around the circulation. I'd guess 60kts right now based on the presentation.

[txwatcher91]

This is why, look how the UL anticyclone is moving over her thus reducing shear and improving outflow

[Buck]

Sure looks like a cane from here!

From "here" too!

[hurricanedude]

accwx still insists it could approach cat 2 before landfall...

[BigA]

If it hooks to the right quite soon it could ride the gulf stream for a while, and with much improved upper level conditions, hurricane is very possible...but I think Accuweather's cat 2 is less than 5% chance.

[BigA]

Actually, its moving over the gulf stream now. If it wants to become a hurricane before landfall, the next 4 hours are important because heat content is much lower near shore.

[KWT]

Wow thats a big upper high, finally got good conditions aloft and possibly has the time to get to hurricane strength before making landfall given the way its wrapping.

[hurricanedude]

in all reality, this should be treted as a hurricane......only 4 mph shy....and certainly hurricane force gusts....the Carolina and SE Virginia coast will like see gusts exceeding 74 mph.....not sustained but still close enough to be treated as a cane imo

[KWT]

Yep winds upto 60kts, I think it could well come close to hurricane strength, its wrapped up very well and its going to be borderline, just like Ernesto of 06.

[hurricanedude]

Lets just say Ive seen storms classified as canes that look much worse

[GaryOBX]

5PM... still Tropical Storm

[Weatherfreak14]

I think now its moving NW and maybe wooble to WNW it looks like a landfall around Edisto and Charleston on this track.