ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Agreed Sanibel I see 255-260 as well, maybe closer to 260 at the present moment, I can see why some think its heading westerly without a clear eye anymore its not as easy to tell, center at 23N 64W pretty much right on the NHC track.

By the way for those in the Turks and Caicos, Ike is about 36hrs away now, best have any preparations left to do done soon and to follow offical guidence.

I expect they just left everything up from their hanna visit

[Sanibel]

I really wish NHC wouldn't put that flashtop IR frame into the visible floater because it jerks my concentration just when I'm getting a feel of the track.

[KWT]

Yep its certainly not west, its around 260 and the heading from the NHC hasn't changed at all looking at the last 4hrs of sat imagery.

Models still shifting west, could be looking at a very bad hit for Havana IF this continues to be the trend.

[Sabanic]

max mayfield on channel 10 miami 4 pm friday

People making way too big of a deal about the earlier shift south, this is a threat to sofla and the keys, they showed ike if it hit the current forecast in the keys and it shows how much of sofla would be influenced by ike, wind fields forecasted to expand, ts winds to expand to 160 miles out. max went over the models and explained how the consensus works, he says likely that major hurricane affecting the keys and south florida, people in the keys better take this one seriously due to potential high storm surge, hurricane center tries and keeps the track steady instead of going back and forth like a windshield wiper.

Hey j I don't think the fact that people taking notice of the possibility that they may have to deal with Ike after FL is making a big deal over nothing. If Ike does strike the extreme southern part of FL and/or the keys it surely will not be enough to knock his intensity down much if any so I think their concern is more than justified when seeing a change in the long range projections.

[haml8]

Why does Ike look like he went to a bad barber? I.E. the flattop... (shear?)

[GreenSky]

max mayfield on channel 10 miami 4 pm friday

People making way too big of a deal about the earlier shift south, this is a threat to sofla and the keys, they showed ike if it hit the current forecast in the keys and it shows how much of sofla would be influenced by ike, wind fields forecasted to expand, ts winds to expand to 160 miles out. max went over the models and explained how the consensus works, he says likely that major hurricane affecting the keys and south florida, people in the keys better take this one seriously due to potential high storm surge, hurricane center tries and keeps the track steady instead of going back and forth like a windshield wiper.

Hey j I don't think the fact that people taking notice of the possibility that they may have to deal with Ike after FL is making a big deal over nothing. If Ike does strike the extreme southern part of FL and/or the keys it surely will not be enough to knock his intensity down much if any so I think their concern is more than justified when seeing a change in the long range projections.

I guess I can see jLauderdal's frustration. The majority of the posters here are more worried about extreme long range and hypothetical model suggestions instead of being concerned on those more likely in the short term to be affected.

[Driftin]

I know it will recurve at some point but Ike appears to be going straight SW on a colision course with Hispaniola. I know its going to recurve but still....it looks really scary. Does anyone know hOw far south of a dive will it take? I just want to know if any of those outflow bands are going to affect my weekend here in PR.

[KWT]

Certainly the keys and south Florida are in the game for Ike, though the models trending south and still going that way does tends to suggest maybe a bigger threat for Cuba right now in terms of landfall. The truth is its still too early to know whats going to happen and the NHC probably do have a good feel on the track.

Even if the track dpes shift south, odds are this still goes very close indeed to the Keys no matter what happens I suspect unless the ECM occurs.

[CourierPR]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html


It's definitely WSW...right on the NHC's projections.

It's clearly west per NHC and satellite.

Per NHC?


IKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT
260/14.


You keep seeing WHATEVER it is you wanna see friend. I'll see the facts.

That was 11 am disco. Looks west now. NHC said west in advisory, not WSW.

[tpr1967]

Try this gatorcane you can make your own plots up.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml

[Vortex]

Satellite representation the last 2 hours indicates shear is relaxing and sat representation is improving..

[KWT]

Its not changed its heading at all CourierPR. Actually it may come in just a tiny bit below the NHC point but they'll be very close indeed.

Still 260 and I'm sure next update will confirm that.

For now our main concern should be T&C, they are looking likely to take a hit by the eyewall, possibly 120-130mph gusts there given how narrow the island is...

[haml8]

As my toddler would say... yuck!

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/ecmwfNA.500spd.html

[cycloneye]

What happened,they returned to base?

[CourierPR]

Yep its certainly not west, its around 260 and the heading from the NHC hasn't changed at all looking at the last 4hrs of sat imagery.

Models still shifting west, could be looking at a very bad hit for Havana IF this continues to be the trend.

Max Mayfield just showed latest model output for 5pm advisory which didn't appear to shift any more west.

[Jevo]

This board is so nutty.. People will quote one model and quote en entirely different one to support their landfall wish/forecast

ie. "This storm is going douth of florida as per the GFDL, but Im getting worried about where I live" and theyll post the Euro...

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Yep its certainly not west, its around 260 and the heading from the NHC hasn't changed at all looking at the last 4hrs of sat imagery.

Models still shifting west, could be looking at a very bad hit for Havana IF this continues to be the trend.

Max Mayfield just showed latest model output for 5pm advisory which didn't appear to shift any more west.

there was a slight shift west but not much.

[Patrick99]

The motion looks to me generally WSW, by stair-stepping....a little SW, then a little W, and so on.

[HenkL]

Yes, they did.