ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Looks like pre-category 5 structure to my eye.

[JPmia]

well too late, the panic is setting in, gas lines already reporting around Broward County.

[gtalum]

Arrrgh. I guess I'll be shuttering on Sunday.

[Philly12]

The NHC forecast plots are are the benchmarks. If it stays on those plots the GFDL solution is wrong. Its that simple.

[ronjon]

The NHC was very good with Gustav on their 5 day forecast - probably within 30 miles of LF. They are the experts. Don't forget that they have tools not available to the general public like the FSU Superensemble Model. Frankly, I'm more bummed today because I'm seeing more tightening of the models toward a S FL or SW FL LF in 4 days. Sure, it may shift east or west 30 or 40 miles maybe, but to most people in S FL that won't make much difference with a major hurricane.

[KWT]

Hurakan, the structure is certainly improving upon what it was before, just needs the shear to ease off a little more over the next 12hrs and then Ike will be ready to some deepening again I'd suspect, looks like the CDO is expanding again even on the northern side as the shear eases off.

Philly12, yep, right now the NHC seem very close to the truth with regards to Ike, may come in a tiny tiny tiny bit south of the NHC but really its not a big deal.

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you.Now lets wait for the next mission that departs around midnight EDT.

[gatorcane]

South Florida mentioned in the advisory now....

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2045.shtml

[Brent]

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REST OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

[Bgator]

A bit farther south, and he mentions it in the discussion to. Tonights models will be key IMO.

[gatorcane]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

[sfwx]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 052046
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST
PENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR
WINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95
KT. A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
LATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS
RAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
LGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF
THEREAFTER. A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13. A
GRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR
SO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A
FEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN
OF THE HURRICANE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE
NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES
WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER. THE MODELS WITH THE
SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A
STRONGER RIDGE. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT
DIRECTION. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN
HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 22.9N 64.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 66.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 22.2N 68.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 22.1N 71.3W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 22.2N 73.7W 110 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 78.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 81.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[Bgator]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

If you consider half a degree south big, ok.... I think your exagerating a bit much.

[CronkPSU]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

If you consider half a degree south big, ok.... I think your exagerating a bit much.

i agree, hardly looks like a shift at all...maybe a nudge

[KWT]

The thing is half a degree will make a difference to those in south Florida I suppose.

NHC looks real severe for the Keys, put right in the NE quadrant of a major hurricane. Also its really not all that far north of Cuba at one point, indeed the forecast is only 35 miles north of Cuba at one point...

[tgenius]

Though if things keep going the way they appear, it DOES appear at least more likely that SFL will not take the brunt of Ike; Obviously things can and will change, but its something to be aware of.

[Vortex]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

You've been telling us this wasn't GOM bound, sometimes it is best to wait it out before making 1 model run declarations.

[gatorcane]

well NHC acts like they are ready to make a big shift west at the 11PM.....if models follow...

then as I said by sometime this weekend, maybe alot of mainland south florida will be out of the cone.

dodging yet another one this 2008 season...