ATL: IKE Discussion

[Canelaw99]

There is actually quite a bit of difference for us in S FL. At 11am the track was aimed more for the Islamorada-ish area which would have given palm beach, broward and parts of dade much more weather, IMO. Now, the track has shifted to Marathon-ish and that will start to reduce, somewhat, the effects on palm beach and broward IMO....

[sfwx]

Look how much they have it slowing down between Tuesday and Wednesday. That seems quite significant to me.

Eric

[jlauderdal]

max mayfield on channel 10 miami 4 pm friday

People making way too big of a deal about the earlier shift south, this is a threat to sofla and the keys, they showed ike if it hit the current forecast in the keys and it shows how much of sofla would be influenced by ike, wind fields forecasted to expand, ts winds to expand to 160 miles out. max went over the models and explained how the consensus works, he says likely that major hurricane affecting the keys and south florida, people in the keys better take this one seriously due to potential high storm surge, hurricane center tries and keeps the track steady instead of going back and forth like a windshield wiper.

Hey j I don't think the fact that people taking notice of the possibility that they may have to deal with Ike after FL is making a big deal over nothing. If Ike does strike the extreme southern part of FL and/or the keys it surely will not be enough to knock his intensity down much if any so I think their concern is more than justified when seeing a change in the long range projections.

i was only reporting what max mayfield said btw, non of the above is my personal opinion

[cycloneye]

Look how much they have it slowing down between Tuesday and Wednesday. That seems quite significant to me.

Eric

Yes,if it slows down it will be more dangerous as it may signal change in direction and more time for the area to feel the effects.

[gatorcane]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

that is a huge break and takes Ike east of Florida but barely....

I have to say what if the 18Z guidance shifts back east....?

[Special K]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 18z NAM is ugly!!!

[jlauderdal]

max mayfield on channel 10 miami 4 pm friday

People making way too big of a deal about the earlier shift south, this is a threat to sofla and the keys, they showed ike if it hit the current forecast in the keys and it shows how much of sofla would be influenced by ike, wind fields forecasted to expand, ts winds to expand to 160 miles out. max went over the models and explained how the consensus works, he says likely that major hurricane affecting the keys and south florida, people in the keys better take this one seriously due to potential high storm surge, hurricane center tries and keeps the track steady instead of going back and forth like a windshield wiper.

Hey j I don't think the fact that people taking notice of the possibility that they may have to deal with Ike after FL is making a big deal over nothing. If Ike does strike the extreme southern part of FL and/or the keys it surely will not be enough to knock his intensity down much if any so I think their concern is more than justified when seeing a change in the long range projections.

I guess I can see jLauderdal's frustration. The majority of the posters here are more worried about extreme long range and hypothetical model suggestions instead of being concerned on those more likely in the short term to be affected.

the frustration was from mayfield not me, i was only the messenger, sorry about the confusion, i will put disclaimer next time i do a mayfield report

[GreenSky]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

You've been telling us this wasn't GOM bound, sometimes it is best to wait it out before making 1 model run declarations.

Basically everything has been ending up in the GOM. The majority of the posters here are from Gulf coast locations.
90% of the talk here is whether something 1000's of miles in the central Atlantic will end up in the GOM.

What happened to talk of all those people who might be affected before Ike has even a chance of making it to the GOM

[Wx_Warrior]

Best post i've seen in years: By jevo

"This board is so nutty.. People will quote one model and quote en entirely different one to support their landfall wish/forecast

ie. "This storm is going south of florida as per the GFDL, but Im getting worried about where I live" and theyll post the Euro..."

[Canelaw99]

Yep, that slow down could be significant. Either providing repeated pounding weather-wise or indicating a turn perhaps? Will be interesting to see what happens. All the models have been showing a NW turn occurring at some point and I wonder if that slow down is taking that into account and would be when Ike is feeling the break....if so, how far it actually goes west would be HUGE for S FL.
*insert S2k disclaimer here - not professional, purely my opinion, etc.*

[Dean4Storms]

Boy the Keys would get hammered with that track.

[SapphireSea]

I understand this would be dangerous thinking, but realistically a missed landfall to the south by 30 miles would likely put most of the mainland S. FL out of at least High-End Hurricane Force winds and into High-End Tropical Storm force, which in terms of structures is nothing, but still significant as I will state below. However, with every shift away from a given location, somewhere ELSE gets the full fury of whatever Ike becomes, hence the existence of the forecast cone. 30 Mile Shift North than the 'line' would bring the fury to homestead and 40 miles prob to S. Miami where there is a significant population.

A hurricane of this magnitude and formation is indeed a slightly thick LINE when it comes to 120 or 140 MPH winds, but this line is not really linear and is impossible to completely predict. The TS wind swath is significant because TS winds can cause a lot of indirect death during, but particularly after the storm thanks to weakened electrical and natural (tree) structures, generally when you are in the 3 day part of the cone, you can generally expect TS conditions, at this point I would start preparing to at least deal with TS conditions, and await OFFICIAL warning from the local government or the NHC. I really would disagree with spreading doom and or hope at this point in the game, NO model or consensus solutions can be considered a LIKELY path until much later and closer to the time where a watch would be put in place, I expect the track to have about 2-3 more revisions before it gets into range to make an educated guess.

[Dean4Storms]

BIG shift left.......in the cone

South Florida gradually dodging another one slowly it looks like

You've been telling us this wasn't GOM bound, sometimes it is best to wait it out before making 1 model run declarations.

Basically everything has been ending up in the GOM. The majority of the posters here are from Gulf coast locations.
90% of the talk here is whether something 1000's of miles in the central Atlantic will end up in the GOM.

What happened to talk of all those people who might be affected before Ike has even a chance of making it to the GOM

Can you point me to somebody who has said something like Florida isn't going to get hit it is GOM bound?

I'm lost at your point, really.

[HURAKAN]

Another Donna becomes more and more of a real possibility.

By the way, our governor is likely to be known forever as "Emergency Crist!!!"

[KWT]

The NHC slow it down probably because its starting to interact with the weakness, however if the next run shifts westward again then it'll probably show a quicker motion.

Still too early to know with any confidence about what Ike will do, the NHC even note that the 4 and 5 day forecasts are prone to errors and at this stage those errors can mean the difference between Miami and Havana...

[meteorologyman]

YIKES! not liking these models one bit, our house barely made it through Charley when it was a Cat1 in Orlando area, house had a terrible leak, on back side of house all we have is sheet rock, and another backside of house is what feels like carboard with insulation bag in it,

If Ike comes through near tampa and through Orlando area as a major I don't see this house making it

[Windtalker1]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

that is a huge break and takes Ike east of Florida but barely....

I have to say what if the 18Z guidance shifts back east....?

You know it will...especially when all the data is imputted into the models.

[tracyswfla]

Oh man.. to my very very amateur eye, this one has the west coast of Florida on it.

[jinftl]

Trend of cumulative probability of the areas experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 11pm Thursday advisory, the second was the forecast with the 5am friday advisory, the third was the friday 11 am forecast probability, the 4th % (in bold) is the current Friday 5pm forecast.

Marathon, followed by Miami & Key West hold the highest overall probability of experiencing winds of the thresholds below.

Keep an eye on these with each new forecast advisory...it helps to see trends and assess risk.



Fort Pierce
34kt 30%-34%-33%-36%
50kt 13%-15%-13%-15%
64kt 5%-8%-7%-7%


West Palm Beach
34kt 35%-40%-40%-43%
50kt 14%-18%-18%-20%
64kt 7%-9%-9%-10%


Miami
34kt 35%-42%-45%-51%
50kt 16%-21%-22%-25%
64kt 8%-11%-12%-13%


Marathon
34kt 28%-37%-44%-51%
50kt 13%-19%-22%-26%
64kt 9%-11%-13% -15%


Key West
34kt 24%-33%-39%-46%
50kt 12%-16%-22%-25%
64kt 7%-10%-12%-15%


Marco Island
34kt 25%-34%-39%-44%
50kt 12%-14%-17%-20%
64kt 6%-7%-10%-11%


Fort Myers
34kt 25%-32%-35%-41%
50kt 10%-13%-15%-17%
64kt 5%-7%-7%-9%

[Pearl River]

From LIX afternoon discussion:

.LONG TERM...

THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO THE
REGION. THUS...POPS SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY SPREAD OUT WITH SOME PREDICTING A TURN
OVER FLORIDA WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENTUAL PATH
OF HURRICANE IKE REMAINS IN QUESTION.