ATL: IKE Discussion

[hazmat]

so many here miss the big picture.
Based on what I'm seeing looks like the keys get spanked, he sits and brews some more in the Gulf of Fl...while waiting to be pushed east now...still spanking a good sized and vulnerable area. Not good if this pans out.
Remember it's got to get past the islands and Fl before the Gulf is ever reached or considered.
My 2 cents.

[gatorcane]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

that is a huge break and takes Ike east of Florida but barely....

I have to say what if the 18Z guidance shifts back east....?

You know it will...especially when all the data is imputted into the models.

well if the 18Z shifts east we may not see the cone move any farther west than it is now and creep back right....overtime...

[hial2]

[quote="KWT". Also its really not all that far north of Cuba at one point, indeed the forecast is only 35 miles north of Cuba at one point...[/quote]

Yep..very close to my birth town...

[Sanibel]

And here's where the east tendency Fay showed us becomes tricky for us on the SW coast. Present NHC track is just compensating for the bias and leading Ike west by a touch. I feel much worse now that it has shifted west of us. If the weakness shows up it will come back this way.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WhirlWind]

Not exactly what I wanted to see!!!!! But with it still being early, will wait and watch....
WhirlWind

[KWT]

Boy the Keys would get hammered with that track.

Sure would, Its not really a good set-up, the best thing is that it can go through the straights, Cuba would probably weaken Ike in a big way if it went far enough inland but then Havana would likely have to deal with the eyewall of Ike, obviously a further north track brings south Florida into the main threat zone...

Right now everyone has to watch this closely, I think the NHC are doing a very good job thus far though, no reason to doubt them.

[Dean4Storms]

Absolutely NOBODY from all of Florida, Bahamas, Cuba or much of the GOM should think they are all clear from this storm because of any model runs. These models could all change tomorrow if the atmosphere is seen changing in their solutions!!!

[Portastorm]

The NHC slow it down probably because its starting to interact with the weakness, however if the next run shifts westward again then it'll probably show a quicker motion.

Still too early to know with any confidence about what Ike will do, the NHC even note that the 4 and 5 day forecasts are prone to errors and at this stage those errors can mean the difference between Miami and Havana...

That's interesting KWT. During Gustav, I seem to recall that we had a pro met or two post that if NHC significantly slowed a storm down in its 5-day cone (without obvious synoptic reasons), it probably meant that the NHC wasn't uncertain of the storm's movement at that point in time. Your thoughts are right down that alley and I'm going to watch that cone with great interest.

[Jevo]

well NHC acts like they are ready to make a big shift west at the 11PM.....if models follow...

then as I said by sometime this weekend, maybe alot of mainland south florida will be out of the cone.

dodging yet another one this 2008 season...

you sound bummed.. need a hug?

[Weatherfreak000]

Per the NHC current motion is WSW.


Where is that guy who was saying otherwise?

[gatorcane]

what happened to Derek Ortt and Wxman?

MIA for hours now

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

Yep, that slow down could be significant. Either providing repeated pounding weather-wise or indicating a turn perhaps? Will be interesting to see what happens. All the models have been showing a NW turn occurring at some point and I wonder if that slow down is taking that into account and would be when Ike is feeling the break....if so, how far it actually goes west would be HUGE for S FL.
*insert S2k disclaimer here - not professional, purely my opinion, etc.*

especially if it starts coming NE on the bend and we are on the east side of it with all that southerly flow..i wish mayfield would let it loose and really tell us what he thinks, i just get the feeling he is holding something back but who knows

[caneseddy]

Absolutely NOBODY from all of Florida, Bahamas, Cuba or much of the GOM should think they are all clear from this storm because of any model runs. These models could all change tomorrow if the atmosphere is seen changing in their solutions!!!

Second that. It frustrates me to no end when people see a shift in the cone and say they are in the clear. These models will change and now we should get good data now that the plane flew in there.

I still think the GFDL is too far south, but we will see.

[KWT]

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

[Canelaw99]

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

[caneseddy]

what happened to Derek Ortt and Wxman?

MIA for hours now

They probably are busy as it is with Hanna and Ike. I know Derek will come on later tonight with his update.

[loxahatchee13]

nbc news in wpb, Steve Weagle just was talking about the weakness in the high and that it could defenitly cause a turn to the nw, but mabey not so just watch and Sunday we should know better about track Ike may eventually take

[Bocadude85]

18z NAM shows break in ridge right over florida which would be very bad news if this verifies for the upper keys, south florida, and points north...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 18z NAM is ugly!!!

its the NAM its garbage...

[Dean4Storms]

That slow down on the NHC track could simply be because the models are all over the place beyond Tuesday, so they simply ended the forecasted track at that point.