ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

well to me Hanna has created a weakness over FL and Ike could easily turn NW if it feels it and/or if the weakness doesn't fill in quick enough...

I'll be watching the 18Z and 00Z models, they should be picking up on it over the next day or so if one is going to exist.

I want to believe South of Florida but I don't believe it yet...and the 18Z NAM is starting to show that weakness over Florida lingering.

[jinftl]

Looks like the potential landfall in south florida...or keys...or straits is now between 2pm Monday and 2pm Tuesday forecast point. That seems at least 12 hours earlier than prior forecast. That could necessitate watches by late saturday/early sunday.

[jlauderdal]

what happened to Derek Ortt and Wxman?

MIA for hours now

pouring over data looking for this weakness

[stayawaynow]

[jdjaguar]

what happened to Derek Ortt and Wxman?

MIA for hours now

If I lived in Miami, I would be bugging out while the bugging out is good.

You cannot evacuate south florida by the time the order comes down.

can't be done. just look at a map versus population density.

its the white elephant in the room

[Dean4Storms]

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

It just blows my mind on here how some get bent all out of shape and some start with the declarations of who isn't and who is going to get hit due to one set of model runs on a 3-5 day forecast, incredible.

[KWT]

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

[HURAKAN]

My worry is a slowdown like Wilma's over the Yucatan peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

he also says these track changes are noise, i dont know maybe he sees this here we go again scenario that just adds to the complacency after it was headed right for us last night, i will tell you they take that track south of key west at 11pm and preparations in south florida will come to a quick halt thats for sure

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed Hanna is moving quite rapidly...I sincerely doubt it will leave a weakness behind to affect Ike. The ridge is rather strong as we've seen..it was pushing Ike WSW before it was even forecast to do so...

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Ike is building back, eye area is visible again.

[cycloneye]

Latest pic. Eye appears more clear.

[KWT]

My worry is a slowdown like Wilma's over the Yucatan peninsula.

The worrying thing is if it does slow down its got very good heat content to develop in, the waters around the Keys, straights and also the Bahamas are warm enough for a cat-4 and even a 5, though I think this may interact with Cuba breifly which would put pay to that...however the NHC track screams top end 4 to me sadly...

[jinftl]

Until my home is not in the shaded 5-day cone...actually southeast florida is close to being in solid white 3-day cone...

Letting your guard down in south florida now would be as foolish as the logic some people used earlier when they said they wouldn't buy the forecast for landfall in south florida because of the 5-day margin of error.

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

It just blows my mind on here how some get bent all out of shape and some start with the declarations of who isn't and who is going to get hit due to one set of model runs on a 3-5 day forecast, incredible.

[Dean4Storms]

I feel for those folks in the southern Bahamas. After Ivan and Dennis I know the feeling you get when you start to see your neck of the woods showing up in front of a Major Hurricane on the Satellite Floater!!!

You kind of get the feeling of what a Grasshopper must feel like when a lawn mower is headed for his patch of grass.

[Lifesgud2]

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

[Brent]

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

It just blows my mind on here how some get bent all out of shape and some start with the declarations of who isn't and who is going to get hit due to one set of model runs on a 3-5 day forecast, incredible.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, if you live in south Florida I would be preparing for a Major Hurricane!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

Did you personally believe Andrew would recurve back in '92?

[jinftl]

Canelaw, why would saying that SFL is not out of the woods be going against the NHC??? Where has the NHC said that? Does the cone reflect that as of 5pm? The probability of 34kt winds in Miami is higher than any other location (tied with Marathon).

What happens if tomorrow a model shifts east...folks will be shocked but a 50-mile shift in either direction for a storm 1000 miles away can't be viewed as an all-clear.

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

First off, tell him to get rid of the peanut butter in his mouth.