ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Miami, yeah I was wondering about that earlier though didn't feel confident enough to mention about it. I don't know if its going to make a huge difference for T&C but obviously further downstream it may make a bigger difference.

The eye is certainly looking much better once again, as the inner core in general and the outflow, I really do think the shear has just eased off somewhat, whether that lasts or not I'm not sure?

[jlauderdal]

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it.

I repeat, there is simply no logic to this. Yes, there is a large margin of error, but since there is presumably no significant bias toward either the right or left side of the forecast track, this means the *middle* of the cone is at greatest risk, even at day 5. If it were otherwise, the cone would not be a true proxy of the uncertainty in the track forecast.

I'm emphasizing this point because people need to know how to properly interpret the cone so that they can make plans accordingly.

another problem with the theory is that since the cone is made up of the previous 5 years and we know they are getting better each year there chances of getting really close to that 5 day point are increasing each year.

im not saying i want to be in any cone or any point but i can see where people would say well i'm better there then on either side of it because the chances of hitting that point at 5 days are very low.

[HURAKAN]

Lights up!

[Storm Contractor]

Cycloneye Your 1st pix brightened

[CronkPSU]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
Eye is popping out.

um i thought it was suppose to be weakening down to a cat 2...not ramping up now

[Storm Contractor]

Cycloneye 2nd pix Brighter:

[jinftl]

why is it rare that tracks can shift back? I have never heard of such a theory...do they only move west or south?

And to be honest it is really not rare for tracks to shift back over me in particular...i am serious.....i was in boston for gloria, living on cape cod during bob, in broward for irene, living in north palm bch county during frances and jeanne, back in broward during wilma.....tracks have shifted back over me my whole life!!! It is in my genes i think....my mom was evacuated by boat from Uptown New Orleans during Betsy and got married to my dad a week before Camille! I was also in the 1997 tornado in Downtown Miami....things shift over me regularly!

well if it shift backs over you then fine but that rarely happens and if it did happen then the forecasts would be verifying 5 days out and the cone would be incredibly small since the cone is based on 2/3 of the track error from the previous 5 years.

[sfwx]

regaurdles where this go,Everyone in Florida needs to be prepared, because one way or another majority of Fl if not all FL will be impacted unless it decides to recurve bact to sea which is looking very unlikely,FL will either get slammed with heavy rain, or Heavy wind, or even both. The beach cost will take a heavy beating with erosion,

If it comes from the west side (the GULF) the SE FL, Keys, W coast FL, centralFL, l E centralFL, NE FL will get impacted.

IF it hits the east side of FL: SE FL, Central FL, E central FL, W FL, and NE FL will get impacted

I feel if our area is impacted here, it would be a system from the west or sw.

Eric

[BigA]

Ike definitely looks somewhat better than it did a few hours ago. Cloud canopy is more symmetrical, with the eye somewhat visible again.

[KWT]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

[cycloneye]

This is the very last visible pic at 6:02 PM EDT.Lights on it.

[feederband]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Well untill its west of me I wont be happy.

[HURAKAN]

[CourierPR]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Huh? That's not what I saw at 5:00pm.

[KWT]

Ike definitely looks somewhat better than it did a few hours ago. Cloud canopy is more symmetrical, with the eye somewhat visible again.

I totally agree, the whole system doesn't look as sheared and lop-sided as it was before, bet its slightly strengthening again.

Havana takes a big blow on most of the models, when was the last time they had a hurricane hit from the east?

CourierPR, look at the model thread...

[jlauderdal]

why is it rare that tracks can shift back? I have never heard of such a theory...do they only move west or south?

And to be honest it is really not rare for tracks to shift back over me in particular...i am serious.....i was in boston for gloria, living on cape cod during bob, in broward for irene, living in north palm bch county during frances and jeanne, back in broward during wilma.....tracks have shifted back over me my whole life!!! It is in my genes i think....my mom was evacuated by boat from Uptown New Orleans during Betsy and got married to my dad a week before Camille! I was also in the 1997 tornado in Downtown Miami....things shift over me regularly!

well if it shift backs over you then fine but that rarely happens and if it did happen then the forecasts would be verifying 5 days out and the cone would be incredibly small since the cone is based on 2/3 of the track error from the previous 5 years.

i guess you are just shifty, i have no other explanation for 5 day tracks to come back over you so often, again if these 5 day tracks were verifying the cone would be really small based on NHC's own definition of the cone

[DanKellFla]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Huh? That's not what I saw at 5:00pm.

Models only tell part of the story.

[GreenSky]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

[Tertius]

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it.

I repeat, there is simply no logic to this. Yes, there is a large margin of error, but since there is presumably no significant bias toward either the right or left side of the forecast track, this means the *middle* of the cone is at greatest risk, even at day 5. If it were otherwise, the cone would not be a true proxy of the uncertainty in the track forecast.

I'm emphasizing this point because people need to know how to properly interpret the cone so that they can make plans accordingly.

another problem with the theory is that since the cone is made up of the previous 5 years and we know they are getting better each year there chances of getting really close to that 5 day point are increasing each year.

im not saying i want to be in any cone or any point but i can see where people would say well i'm better there then on either side of it because the chances of hitting that point at 5 days are very low.

But the chances of any given point on either side of that cone being hit are even lower, and that is the point most people are missing. The odds of taking a direct hit if you are in the center of the 5 day cone are not very high, but they are higher than they are for anyone else, anywhere else on the map they happen to be. This is why saying that being in the center of the 5 day cone is a desirable place to be is just silly.

[jlauderdal]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

hopefully cuba takes ike out permanently