ATL: IKE Discussion

[Bgator]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

To say that is not accurate, the east coast of florida has had its fair share of hurricanes, i can guarantee you that.

[KWT]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

hopefully cuba takes ike out permanently

It'll certainly take it down a peg or two and probably mess up its inner core but all models show this getting into the gulf and not exactly moving super fast either, its likely to have a good deal longer then Gustav did to reorganise itself and an Ike smashing central Cuba as a cat-4 would be really severe, who is to say that over the very warm waters in the SE/S gulf of Mexico won't allow Ike to blow up again.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.

Please stop. Your comments can be very misleading.

[Blown Away]

Has Ike slowed down a little bit in the last few frames?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Members and guests, please follow the forecasts of the NHC, NWS, and the orders of your local authorities. NO ONE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE CLEAR.

[Storm Contractor]

Last Pix Lit Up:

[Bocadude85]

Well looks like i dodged another bullet up here in south palm beach county.. will definately not be putting shutters up now unless something unexpected happens

[Trader Ron]

I knew Ike was not going to make landfall on the Florida peninsula...there are just too many things hurricanes arriving from the east of the Florida have to put up with...Either there will almost always be a recurve due to a strong trough or there will be insanely strong ridging...and if these ingredients do come together to allow for the improbable Florida landfall, then there are landmasses like Hispaniola and eastern Cuba to tear apart and weaken the storm...shear also usually acts up...

To sum up, for there to be a hurricane the magnitude and size of Ike to strike the east coast of Florida, there are way too many factors that must fall in place altogether making this event VERY rare.


What are you talking about?

You ever hear of Frances and Jeanne?
Oh, and Andrew.

[fci]

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it.

I repeat, there is simply no logic to this. Yes, there is a large margin of error, but since there is presumably no significant bias toward either the right or left side of the forecast track, this means the *middle* of the cone is at greatest risk, even at day 5. If it were otherwise, the cone would not be a true proxy of the uncertainty in the track forecast.

I'm emphasizing this point because people need to know how to properly interpret the cone so that they can make plans accordingly.

I don't know that the "middle" is necessarily always at the greatest risk.
Intuitively it should be.
However, the 5PM yesterday had the middle of the cone at Broward/Palm Beach County when not one model (at least none of the majors shown) had the storm there. The models were south/west of the middle and north/east. The NHC clearly stated the two schools of thought and therefore their taking the middle. So.... when one or the other verified; the forecast track changed and the middle would no longer be the expected strike point.

Sounds peculiar and maybe this was a rare occurence but that is what happened.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest GFS spares SFL...


model guidance is generally coming into agreement in a track through the straits. NO REASON TO LOWER YOUR DEFENSES.

[PTrackerLA]

ok more live chat from Dr. Jeff Masters
JeffMasters - Ike could cross the state from Miami to Ft. Myers, emerge into the Gulf, then turn around and hit Tampa and cross the state again. That is the current GFS model forecast.
WhirlWind

ok so now he has said west coast hook likely, model convergence with no west coast wouldnt be surprise, track from miami to fort myers then back to tampa....the only thing we havent hit yet is key west, jacksonville and pensacola

Uh, ok Dr. Masters? He's had some perplexing posts lately, like the one on Gustav where he discussed the crazy HWRF solution of stalling gustav off the coast of LA and then heading southwest. He mentioned something about he was forecasting that to occur. I just kept thinking to myself, really?

[Windy]

This is the very last visible pic at 6:02 PM EDT.Lights on it.

Enhanced:

[CourierPR]

Members and guests, please follow the forecasts of the NHC, NWS, and the orders of your local authorities. NO ONE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE CLEAR.

Thank you, Hurakan. My head is spinning with the flip flopping going on and one call for a Havana hit.

[KWT]

Ike looking increasingly good tonight, I think we are about 12-18hrs away from another burst of RI possibly given how small the inner core still is.

Everywhere in the cone needs to watch Ike very closely, though it does seem the threat is starting to slowly transfer to Cuba now as the models come into better agreement.

However as Hurakan says, no-one in the cone is in the clear...

[CourierPR]

Ike looking increasingly good tonight, I think we are about 12-18hrs away from another burst of RI possibly given how small the inner core still is.

Everywhere in the cone needs to watch Ike very closely, though it does seem the threat is starting to slowly transfer to Cuba now as the models come into better agreement.

What????????!!!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Actually, the 18Z GFS just skims the coast of Cba then turns Ike north then NE toward the northern peninsula - possibly Tampa area. Not all the model is in yet.

[WmE]

Ike looking increasingly good tonight, I think we are about 12-18hrs away from another burst of RI possibly given how small the inner core still is.

Everywhere in the cone needs to watch Ike very closely, though it does seem the threat is starting to slowly transfer to Cuba now as the models come into better agreement.

Yeah but on the other hand these systems with small inner cores tend to trigger ERC. I think Ike is overdue for one, and this will halt any RI in the short term.

[Sanibel]

Van Winkle and the Channel 7 guy didn't mention anything about a High in the midwest preventing a hook into SW Florida. They said we are probably going to get enough of this storm to take it seriosuly and Van Winkle said his shutters are going up tomorrow.

[Bgator]

Ike looking pretty good on those pictures that are brigthened.

Some good news for the Floridians, Cuba is the destination of the 18z GFS, big shift there and now all models in near total agreement on its going close or over Cuba...

Actually, the 18Z GFS just skims the coast of Cba then turns Ike north then NE toward the northern peninsula - possibly Tampa area. Not all the model is in yet.

Wxman, whats your opinion on the southern shift?

[Blown Away]

Ike looking increasingly good tonight, I think we are about 12-18hrs away from another burst of RI possibly given how small the inner core still is.

Everywhere in the cone needs to watch Ike very closely, though it does seem the threat is starting to slowly transfer to Cuba now as the models come into better agreement.

Seems that way so far, hard to grab onto the idea of a cane going from 23.5N/60w to 21N/75W.