ATL: IKE Discussion

[curtadams]

b]Please help me out here. I need your advice urgently.[/b]
I live on Providensciales, T&C.

I understand weather to a point, which I learn through reading a weather sites such as this.

Ike is coming my way, no doubt. How soon do you think I might start feeling effects such as wind and rain.As I have stated before through these posts, we are hearing nothing from the radio staions at all about this storm.

Gretchen

I am not a met and maybe you should ask this in the pro met forum. But:

Looks to me like you will enter the TS force radius (100 nm W of the eye, by the forecast) around midnight Universal time tomorrow, which would be about sunset your time tomorrow. At that point it will no longer be safe to be outside. Wind and rain will probably be noticeable well before although Ike doesn't have much feeder rain to the W so *maybe* you won't see much rain before that. Please be extra safe because you could see a strong major hurricane - far stronger than Hanna. Most likely not, but be ready.

[Bocadude85]

shouldnt the 8pm inter be out?

[cycloneye]

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

Awaiting the late 8PM Advisory. Perhaps they are holding it to look at its apparent westward movement now? Or mabey they forgot to write it lol.

Look at the advisory thread

[cycloneye]

T numbers going up again:

Code: Select all

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 7.2.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  05 SEP 2008    Time :   231500 UTC
      Lat :   22:46:29 N     Lon :   64:40:45 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.5 / 960.4mb/102.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
             (3hr avg)               
                5.5     5.9     6.1

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.4mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -33.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

[hiflyer]

Good evening everyone,

Please help me out here. I need your advice urgently.
I live on Providensciales, T&C.

Gretchen

Looking at the NHC track it would appear that conditions will start going rapidly downhill by midmorning with the worst during the night hours later on. Tropical storm force winds at the 5pm advisory extended out 115 miles while Hurricane is out 45 miles as of that advisory. Top winds forecasted to about 100kts as it goes by you increasing to 115 as it continues west. The islands are in the middle of the cone with the center of that path just off your north side. A shift north could spare the islands the more intense weather while a shift south would put the islands into the stronger NW area. At those forecasted wind speeds surge could be 6-8 feet...higher if it strengthens of course. I know this is rough estimating but hope that it helps you on the island....good luck and fingers crossed for you.

[HURAKAN]

Eye still visible. Northern part better organized.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Unoffical thinking of current strength

954 millibars
Max winds 105 knots

My thinking it will strengthen to 110 knots over the next 6-8 hours. Can't wait for recon.

[tolakram]

[Grease Monkey]

Now add one more point to that just about west of the last and then I would agree unless that last point looks to be a start of the track leveling out.

[tolakram]

edit.

I answered this myself, 8PM track same as 5PM

[HURAKAN]

Almost a zonal flow across the United States. A zonal flow means that the winds parallel the latitude lines.

[Aristotle]

He totally looks to be RI. Getting his act together on the north and west sides!

[thetruesms]

edit.

I answered this myself, 8PM track same as 5PM

Yeah - I'm sure you know, but for those that may not, forecast tracks aren't updated for intermediate advisories, only full advisories.

Almost a zonal flow across the United States. A zonal flow means that the winds parallel the latitude lines.

Yeah, that is a really broad trough over the central US there

[Steve H.]

But the question is, does it poke a hole in the subtropical ridge?

[Bocadude85]

So it is looking a lot better for S Fl tonight right?

[StJoe]

So it is looking a lot better for S Fl tonight right?

[Tropics Guy]

As long as your area is in the NHC cone, you will still need to watch Ike carefully....

TG

[Grease Monkey]

So it is looking a lot better for S Fl tonight right?

Way too early to tell in my opinion.

[HURAKAN]

Boca, we're not better or worse than 4 hours ago.

[ConvergenceZone]

A couple of things.

Has the overall size of this torm grown since when it first became a hurricane? It could just be my eyes, but it looks bigger than it did when it first became a hurricane.

Also, if this goes as far west as as the panhandle or LA, this may not landfall until NEXT weekend....Wow, that's still a week away....This is going to be a crazy week. I'm totally clueless as to where this is going