ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[shah8]

Betsy's two declines in lattitudes came when it was weak cat 1 the first time and when it declined in strength the second time, it went from cat 4 to cat 3, and stalled and started going down, and when it declined to a cat 2, then the serious declines in latitude occured and continued...

However, we should see something like Betsy's loop a'la ridge transition later on in or past Florida/Cuba.

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike is NOT moving Due West...geez every hour someone thinks the storm is moving West..


It's right along the NHC forecast point. WSW...it's been that way for hours..

[Brent]

The GFDL shows Ike at 21.9N in about 12 hours and 21.0N in 24 hours from now...let's keep an eye and see where he stands in the morning. That would mean losing almost a full degree of latitude in 12 hours. Not saying it is impossible...just unusual.

Definitely. If it is indeed that far south in the morning then I'll believe it, but right now I'm very skeptical.

[jinftl]

No one is disputing that...since we are in the models section, an area of discussion has been will a sw track as sharp as the gfdl is showing....getting to 20N...take place? The current heading would not show a system getting to 20N....therefore, a sharper sw turn must be in store.

Ike is NOT moving Due West...geez every hour someone thinks the storm is moving West..


It's right along the NHC forecast point. WSW...it's been that way for hours..

[captain east]

Ike is NOT moving Due West...geez every hour someone thinks the storm is moving West..


It's right along the NHC forecast point. WSW...it's been that way for hours..

It's a bit north of the NHC track points, but it's still moving SW but barely south...

[hicksta]

this would be ridiculous if it went into the gulf, and threaten LA. Just got back to LSU and this campus has trees down everywhere. Lets just pray for a uturn and it be a fish

[Grease Monkey]

Ike is NOT moving Due West...geez every hour someone thinks the storm is moving West..


It's right along the NHC forecast point. WSW...it's been that way for hours..

Please show me how it's not moving west? Looks pretty clear to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

[cycloneye]

[Weatherfreak000]

Ike is NOT moving Due West...geez every hour someone thinks the storm is moving West..


It's right along the NHC forecast point. WSW...it's been that way for hours..

Please show me how it's not moving west? Looks pretty clear to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Is this a joke? lol. Bring up a floater...don't use long range.

[captain east]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Turn on the Trop Fcst Pts at the top, it's moving SW right now, but barely south.

[Tropics Guy]

Based on the latest models, the NHC forecasted track will probably be adjusted south yet again at 11. This track goes against climatology, but the models must be seeing the ridge strengthening SW.

TG

[Grease Monkey]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Turn on the Trop Fcst Pts at the top, it's moving SW right now, but barely south.

It appears it did move slightly south, but then it seems to just continue west in the last couple of frames

[AtlanticWind]

Caught the end of Max mayfield and the channel 10 weatherman talking about the windshield wiper effect with models , trending one way than swinging back the other.

[Burn1]

Me say a Galveston landing with ridging builing back up over midwest.....

[wzrgirl1]

What does the nogaps see? It seems as if it is the outlier here?

[x-y-no]

ONCE AGAIN:

We do have a chat room. This isn't it. Please stick to more substantial posts about the models and Ike.

[Grease Monkey]

Thank God I will miss South Florida.....Forcasting is so much better today than even 10 years ago!

Yep SE florida in the clear. Season cancel.

[wxman57]

Consensus models shifting south to northern Cuba from 18Z to 00Z

18Z plot:


New 00Z Plot:


I think the 03Z NHC track will be similar to the green/orange TCON/TVCN tracks that are touching one another southwest of the Keys.

[jhpigott]

Caught the end of Max mayfield and the channel 10 weatherman talking about the windshield wiper effect with models , trending one way than swinging back the other.

I don't think Mayfield buys this trend south . . . and as many have said here before, if he talks people listen

[AtlanticWind]

Caught the end of Max mayfield and the channel 10 weatherman talking about the windshield wiper effect with models , trending one way than swinging back the other.

I don't think Mayfield buys this trend south . . . and as many have said here before, if he talks people listen

Agree , I would expect the models to start trending back a little north .