Dan Rather Rips NHC's Claudette Forecast

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wxman57
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Dan Rather Rips NHC's Claudette Forecast

#1 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:28 pm

I just saw Dan Rather on the evening news do a story on Claudette and a "blown NHC forecast". They interviewed residents that had prepared for a 50-60 mph storm, but they said they weren't prepared for 104mph. Of course, they're confusing gusts with sustained winds. But it sure did look like Claudette had sustained wind closer to 85-95 mph in a small area - right near Cat 2 strength.

The story went on to say that not all forecasters were saying Claudette would be so weak and they interviewed Joe Bastardi who had talked about it becoming a Cat 2 prior t landfall. Max Mayfield defended the NHC saying their forecasts were not perfect but were pretty close.
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#2 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:32 pm

Yea and Bastardi called for it to weaken as well.............I cant believe Dan would do that...................Someone needs to rip him a new one..................I have nothing else to say!
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:42 pm

The NHC did have hurricane warnings and were advised to prepare for such an event ... and the warnings were out well ahead of the actual landfall, even though the storm intensified rapidly towards the end, and also picked up in forward speed ... again, to say they were not warned is purely false ... surprised a bit, maybe, but warned, no ...

It is the ultimate responsibly for the individual(s) in harm's way to act, and react in such a way that will keep them out of harm's way ... and IMO, the NHC did that, and projected a very good area of projected landfall ...

SF
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#4 Postby JetMaxx » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:43 pm

This nation is becoming a bunch of sickening crybabies...and national media is IMO a MAJOR reason for it.

NHC issued a HURRICANE WARNING with plenty of lead time....meaning hurricane force winds were likely (anything above 75 mph, with gusts to 90+). Claudette made landfall in the center of the Hurricane Warning area....perfection.

Anyone that's lived on the Texas Coast for more than a decade should know hurricanes sometimes deepen rapidly near landfall due to very warm sst's just offshore (i.e.- Alicia; Celia).

Wonder what the furor will be someday when a cat-1 suddenly bombs and slams into the Florida Keys as a cat 4/5 like it did in 1935...and will do again someday, and drowns 500 or 1000 people?

I honestly wouldn't want to be a professional meteorologist....not after seeing them trashed on boards because 6.7" of snow fell and 3-6" was forecast; or crucified in the media because the hurricane's peak gust was 109 mph and not 100.

Sorry for the rant....but you don't even want to know what I think of Rather...or Brokaw...or Peter Jennings :grrr: :grrr:

PW
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#5 Postby therock1811 » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:59 pm

Rather should have practiced responsible journalism... as should Cowan... Claudette was what it was b/c of warm sst's near the coast... no one knew if it would intensify... media should find something else to do rather than rip a perfectly good forecast to shreds......
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We Report - You Decide!

#6 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 18, 2003 9:05 pm

Hey, we report - you decide! :wink:

I think the NHC did fairly well for the most part. But they did ignore reports from several platforms in Garden Banks that reported sustained 70-80kt winds for 3 hours as Claudette was stalled off he LA coast. Then the plane reported a 75kt sfc wind - still no upgrade. Then finally an upgrade to hurricane late at night and the storm arrived about 6-8 hours early.

But I think the bigger problem was the complacency of the residents along the Gulf coast. I was amazed at how few calls we were getting as the storm neared the coast. It had been over 40 years since that area of the coast sustained a direct hit by ANY hurricane. People forgot what even a minimal storm can do. And even a Cat 1 hurricane can have gusts over 100 mph.

The U.S. is in for a rude awakening in the seasons to come when Cat 3-4 storms begin hitting with regularity. Our 33-year lull is likely ending.
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#7 Postby JetMaxx » Fri Jul 18, 2003 9:24 pm

The Florida Peninsula especially....a return to a hurricane pattern such as they experienced between 1919-1950 is going to stun and shock Floridians...and unfortunately IMO take a lot of lives :(

Andrew was IMO only a small sample of what a repeat of the Great Miami hurricane of 1926 or 1928 San Felipe/ Lake Okeechobee hurricane would cause.

Between Broward and Palm Beach counties there are nearly 2.5 million in harms way...and they haven't been seen the eyewall of a cat-3 since 1950....that luck isn't going to last much longer (and the West Coast from Tampa Bay to Naples is even more vunerable...due to an extremely dangerous storm surge problem).
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#8 Postby Toni - 574 » Fri Jul 18, 2003 10:04 pm

JetMaxx wrote:The Florida Peninsula especially....a return to a hurricane pattern such as they experienced between 1919-1950 is going to stun and shock Floridians...and unfortunately IMO take a lot of lives :(

Andrew was IMO only a small sample of what a repeat of the Great Miami hurricane of 1926 or 1928 San Felipe/ Lake Okeechobee hurricane would cause.

Between Broward and Palm Beach counties there are nearly 2.5 million in harms way...and they haven't been seen the eyewall of a cat-3 since 1950....that luck isn't going to last much longer (and the West Coast from Tampa Bay to Naples is even more vunerable...due to an extremely dangerous storm surge problem).


I hear what you are saying JetMaxx, most Florida residents don't have a clue. If you try to talk to them about the possibility they just blow you off. If I have heard it once, I have heard it a thousand times that we just like to hype things up and cry wolf,cause it never happens here. What is so sad about that statement is that one day they are going to be wrong.
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#9 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 18, 2003 11:25 pm

I have to disagree with some of you here. While I certainly agree that ultimately it's the responsibility of the individual for his or her actions, the TPC didn't do all that great considering. They take the heat whether they over predict or under predict storms, but that comes with the territory. They are taxpayer funded and have taken the responsibility on behalf of the government to be the official source on tropical systems. They get a little cranky with lone-wolf and mad-wand meteorologists who go against the 'official' predictions.

You may recall my thread (this may interest those of you in the Central/Upper Tx Coasts) from Saturday Night when Jr. Met. Jeff Basquin at Fox-8 New Orleans put out a "more likely" track for Claudette, stair-stepping her up towards Central/Upper Texas. This was a rare break for Fox-8 who often takes the heat for sticking with the official TPC/NHC forecasts (especially Georges in 1998). But if a junior meteorologist at a local tv station can see that something was amiss with the NHC's track, then obviously they had to see something. They're the brightest minds in the business. But let's look at the facts. They didn't budge off their US/Mexico border landfall prediction until much later. And they downplayed the potential of the storm. I'd have to go back and look at the archives but it seems like 70-75 was the highest intensity they brought Claudette for most of her time. I stated all along that I thought Claudette had Cat-2 potential. I first noticed it on Thursday when she was down in the Caribbean. The last few visible shots that evening showed she had some tenacity. She proved it again as she fought off shear day after day after day. And while her demise was predicted many times by people on S2K, she wasn't going anywhere.

Now if you watched any news reports Sunday or Monday, you could see the non-chalant attitude of many coastal Texas residents. "It's only a tropical storm." "We go through these all the time." etc.

So obviously the word didn't get out to everyone that Claudette wasn't just a fun and games storm. We can't expect John Q. Public to be as enthused or enthralled with tropical systems like we are. We all live for the season. We sweat feeder bands and bleed tropical downpours. So if their official outlets and the TPC is saying that 'it has the potential to become a hurricane close to landfall', and if I'm not a weather enthsiast, I'm going to take that to mean, maybe it will/maybe it won't. But it's not /that/ big of a deal.

Knowing what we know about storms hitting Texas perpendicularly; knowing what we know about the water temperature profiles off the TX coast; and knowing that the shear was bound to relax sooner or later, I think most of us realized what we were looking at.

As for Bastardi, he maintained that the storm had Cat-2 potential (I had posted that long before he ever addressed it in his Friday post, so don't think I was bought and sold by Accuweather). He was correct, though he was off on his landfall.

In the future, I would suggest TPC not try to smooth out all their tracks, be willing to move tracks when changing conditions become apparent and also throw out intensity scenarios - not to confuse anyone, but to alert Joe Average that they might be taking the brunt of a storm.

Steve
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#10 Postby rainydaze » Fri Jul 18, 2003 11:37 pm

Yes, the general public's hurricane motto is: "They always
say it's going to come here, but it never does." I know this
because it's exactly what I said to my mother when she told
me this Hurricane Andrew was coming our way.
She said: No, they're pretty sure it's coming.
Well.....Thank God I lived in Palm Beach County and
not Homestead because at that time of my life, I would've
paid more attention to the man on the moon than a stupid
hurricane. And I probably would've died. Now I know better.
All I can say is that if a major hurricane were to threaten
us here in Palm Beach County one day, I would literally
go out and hit the pavement and make sure my friends
and neighbors know that a hurricane is coming and it can
be dangerous and to please pay attention to the news.
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#11 Postby JetMaxx » Fri Jul 18, 2003 11:39 pm

Toni, I have friends in Florida that work in Emergency Management and Skywarn that are literally scared to death...because they know it's only a matter of time.

I try not to frighten folks, but the facts are that over the long term...from 1850 to 1965, more intense hurricanes struck the Florida peninsula than any other state in America. While few were as intense as Andrew...most were much larger in size.

For some reason, after Betsy in 65', the hurricanes stopped hitting south Florida. Since then, millions have moved there since, and think it won't ever happen again (even after seeing Andrew's destruction).

If a large 140 mph hurricane the size of Floyd or Carla strikes Florida...crosses the state from Miami/Fort Lauderdale to Fort Myers/ Naples, the entire southern half of Florida will be a disaster area...in ruins.

Along the west coast, even a minimal cat-3 (115 mph) making landfall from the south or southwest means a huge (12-15') storm surge...and in a low lying area such as Fort Myers, Sarasota, or Tampa Bay, if people don't evacuate...they will drown. So many people now live there...and so many of them don't take the threat of a severe hurricane seriously....IMO when it finally does happen, many will be slow to evacuate -- and try to leave when it's too late :(

I realize there's a hurricane apathy problem at many locations along the U.S. coast, but Florida scares me the most...because of the return frequency of major landfalling hurricanes...coupled with the unusual lack of major hurricanes since the population explosion began in the late 1960's.
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#12 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jul 19, 2003 12:23 am

rainydaze1 wrote:Yes, the general public's hurricane motto is: "They always
say it's going to come here, but it never does." I know this
because it's exactly what I said to my mother when she told
me this Hurricane Andrew was coming our way.
She said: No, they're pretty sure it's coming.
Well.....Thank God I lived in Palm Beach County and
not Homestead because at that time of my life, I would've
paid more attention to the man on the moon than a stupid
hurricane. And I probably would've died. Now I know better.
All I can say is that if a major hurricane were to threaten
us here in Palm Beach County one day, I would literally
go out and hit the pavement and make sure my friends
and neighbors know that a hurricane is coming and it can
be dangerous and to please pay attention to the news.


Good point to make Rainydaze!!! Last time the Houston area was threatened by a major cane or at least I thought it was, I emailed or told everyone of my friends I could get in touch with what I thought might happen. Some were apathetic, some weren't. I was insistent with all of them to be prepared-Better safe than sorry!!! If it doesn't come great!!! If it does come-then at least you are prepared and can either eat the food or donate it to charity. Other supplies can last till they are needed.

As almost everyone has alluded to, the biggest problem is the APATHY AND IT WON'T HAPPEN HERE ATTITUDE. Education is the only answer and that is where the media is SORELY LACKING AND NOT DOING THEIR JOB. A good program about Hurricanes with illustrative clips from previous storms as to the type of damage created at different levels, being run at least once a month during the season would, imho be invaluable in at least making people more aware of the potential for damage and or disaster. Clips such as those out of PR and S FL during Hugo and Andrew with winds wailing at 140+ mph will help to get the attention of at least a few. I understand what a storm can do at any level because I have been through or at least experienced affects from all of them, but I am rare(besides the fact I am a tropical weather addict!). Even those clips make me cringe each time I see them. Along with that it would be very easy to illustrate and/or show how a Hurricane is not a dot on a map but a storm covering sometimes hundreds of miles. Of course some would say why do I want to watch a boring show about Hurricanes and those are going to be the whiners and bashers when it is over, if they live through it. YOU CAN LEAD A HORSE TO WATER, BUT YOU CAN'T MAKE IT DRINK!! JMHO.
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Apathy was evident even for Bill!

#13 Postby HarahanTim » Sat Jul 19, 2003 8:18 am

The apathy every one is talking about was very evident here in south Louisiana for Tropical Storm Bill. Even though the metro New Orleans area was under a tropical storm WARNING, that morning it was pretty much business as usual. Almost all businesses were open, even most summer schools had session! the bottom fell out by late morning, many people were stuck in flooding streets and businesses. Many people tried to hold the meteoroligists accountable for poorly predicting how bad it got...but...there is a reason why it is called a WARNING! 50 and 60 mph winds in a thunderstorm can cause a lot of havoc, well, a direct hit by a strong tropical storm can obviously do a lot more. I have told many friends, "If no damage will come from one of these storms, there would be no reason to name them!" :? Great line of discussion everyone!
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#14 Postby Lindaloo » Sat Jul 19, 2003 8:23 am

Well, I do not listen to the NHC as much as I used to. I go by my locals mets forecasts. But I do rely on the NHC to properly upgrade a storm.
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#15 Postby jj » Sat Jul 19, 2003 12:57 pm

Must be the part of Houston I live in, but after Alison, most folks get anxious at the threat of heavy rains, much less a storm in the Gulf. In my years living in Galveston and Houston, I find it tends to be the "old timers" who blow off the seriousness of tropical storms.
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Upgrade at 10PM versus late at night

#16 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:35 pm

The thing that got me on the NHC's handling of Claudette was that they didn't upgrade it at 10PM when there was clear and convincing evidence that it was very close and heading to hurricane status. I think it would have been better to tell people as they were attempting to go to bed. As it was, the message on the 10:00 news was "tropical storm" and this bred a form of complacency. Had the message been "hurricane", I suspect the attitude would have been different. Yes, I know, we are talking about 5-10 miles per hour difference but the uttering of the simple word "hurricane" makes a difference - does it not? Labeling just simply plays a role in the way people act.
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#17 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:57 pm

In the defense of NHC, everybody should take hurricanes seriously of any intensity and prepare for the worst, just in case. Hurricanes have been known to be fickle and things could change quickly in the track or intensity of the storm before landfall, no matter what is being forecasted. The public needs to be aware of this more, if so, this would not be such a big problem.

However, I believe that NHC at the end dragged their feet on the intensity of this storm. I agree with Steve Crosby. They had the infomation to make this hurricane at 10pm. But of course they didn't want to the storm to seem to have sudden or quickly intensify, which was not in their forecast so they just nudged up the winds a bit. They were slow in making this a more stronger storm in the winds, the pressure dropped to 979 which is more consistent of Cat 2 hurricane. But they did not forecast it to QUICKLY strenghten before landfall, there was a hesitation to increase the winds. There's is preparing for the worst and then there is EXPECTING the worst.

JB along with Accuweather got the message out more that this could be stronger storm then the NHC did. If the NHC wasn't focused so much on keeping their forecast on the track, the NHC would be getting less criticism for it.
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#18 Postby WidreMann » Sat Jul 19, 2003 3:13 pm

How many times did the NHC say it would get to hurricane strength only for it not to? And Claudette was fighting negative conditions for a long time, and, for all anybody knew at the time, negative conditions could have returned, meaning that the intensification might have been temporary. Nonetheless, they issued hurricane warnings well in advance of the storm, so there was no excuse.

As to whether it was a Cat2, it is pretty much a moot point. There were two or three reports of borderline Cat 2 winds, at least one of which was very likely spurious. The pressure was also borderline cat2. But the real mootness of the point is that it was borderline. It might just as well have been a strong cat1, for all the difference it makes.
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#19 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Jul 19, 2003 3:30 pm

The NHC was forecast or minimal or weak catergory one of 75 to 80mph. There's a big difference between that and a cane with winds between 90-100mph. The damage that was caused was more consistent of a Cat 2 than Cat 1.
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That's not the point...

#20 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Jul 19, 2003 3:52 pm

Widreman,

That's not the point - the point is that it was already a hurricane at 10PM. For public safety reasons, it needed to be called a hurricane at that time.

That's the only quibble I have with NHC over this one. I just think that when people went to bed, they would have taken different precautions / actions by the change of phrase from "tropical storm" to "hurricane"
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