ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

:uarrow:

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.

that is a good thing....

it may be an open wave by the time it emerges on this run...(kidding of course)

[ROCK]

If Ike continues SW for that long or longer, would that not give it time to be picked up by a possible trough? Just a bad thought.

yes....look at the 500mb heights.....strong ridging....

[Chigger_Lopez]

Is there a chance that once he gets in the GOM that he hook nne or ne due to the coming down? I see a couple of the models possibly less reiable ones showing some odd hooking at the end of their runs. Are they seeing something close to feasible?

I was thinking the exact same thing. Would that not give the storm more time to find the weakness that Airforce and Wxman were talking about last night. Albeit west of the peninsula and much further South. . . Just thinking out loud

[Sihara]

I was looking at the GFS on this site:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It was the 2008090518 - if I'm right about what I was looking at, it was very scary for the FL's W coast! Is this run plausible, or does a later run suggest otherwise? I guess I'm trying to find reasons not to believe what I think I saw.

Please excuse my newbie questions - I asked this once before but left out the operative words It was this: is it possible that, with Ike's WSW motion, it can get far enough south not to be pulled north by a weakness in the ridge? Does anyone have any idea - or is that highly unlikely.


Still feeling a bit ill after seeing that GFS run.

[Windy]

:uarrow:

Ike traversing the high terrain of Cuba and getting ripped apart at 66 hours.

that is a good thing....

Well, maybe not so great for the Cubans.

[gatorcane]

I was looking at the GFS on this site:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It was the 2008090518 - if I'm right about what I was looking at, it was very scary for the FL's W coast! Is this run plausible, or does a later run suggest otherwise? I guess I'm trying to find reasons not to believe what I think I saw.

Please excuse my newbie questions - I asked this once before but left out the operative words It was this: is it possible that, with Ike's WSW motion, it can get far enough south not to be pulled north by a weakness in the ridge? Does anyone have any idea - or is that highly unlikely.


Still feeling a bit ill after seeing that GFS run.

That's the 18Z GFS, 00 GFS is way left and south of this run so maybe you'll feel better.

of course we are only out to 66 hours...

[ROCK]

I was looking at the GFS on this site:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It was the 2008090518 - if I'm right about what I was looking at, it was very scary for the FL's W coast! Is this run plausible, or does a later run suggest otherwise? I guess I'm trying to find reasons not to believe what I think I saw.

Please excuse my newbie questions - I asked this once before but left out the operative words It was this: is it possible that, with Ike's WSW motion, it can get far enough south not to be pulled north by a weakness in the ridge? Does anyone have any idea - or is that highly unlikely.


Still feeling a bit ill after seeing that GFS run.

the new one is coming in 0z run.....that is the 18z....old run....that site will not update for awhile...


stick around here and get up to the minute play by play by Gatorcane on the 0z run.....

[gatorcane]

emerging off the Western tip of Cuba much weaker at 84 hours...I'm heading signing off.

[jhpigott]

wasn't Max Mayfield on earlier today talking about the "windshield wiper" effect of these models swinging back and forth . . . looks like these "windshield wipers" are stuck in one direction -SW

[thetruesms]

I was looking at the GFS on this site:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

It was the 2008090518 - if I'm right about what I was looking at, it was very scary for the FL's W coast! Is this run plausible, or does a later run suggest otherwise? I guess I'm trying to find reasons not to believe what I think I saw.

Please excuse my newbie questions - I asked this once before but left out the operative words It was this: is it possible that, with Ike's WSW motion, it can get far enough south not to be pulled north by a weakness in the ridge? Does anyone have any idea - or is that highly unlikely.


Still feeling a bit ill after seeing that GFS run.

That's the 18Z GFS, 00 GFS is way left and south of this run so maybe you'll feel better.

of course we are only out to 66 hours...

Something that makes me feel more confident in this run is that it is lacking the random 6-12 hour N/NNE jumps that the 18Z run had . . . at least, so far.

[ROCK]

emerging off the Western tip of Cuba much weaker at 84 hours...I'm heading signing off.

isle of youth again...boy those poor people are getting hammered this year...they get a cat 4 with Gus and now probably cat 1 in Ike.....ugh....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

my concern is that even if it goes further south this run, that by the time it gets back out over water and into the gulf, whatever it saw earlier that made it take a hard right turn, will still be there and still cause the same outcome...a right turn into western florida...albeit a little later than originally pegged. was it s trough or a front? -those things usually dip pretty low in the gulf to cause such a radical turn. -or maybe the 2 ridges really join together and it gets funnelled up into a peak inbetween the two that occurs over Florida? -but the path remains blocked to further north movement?? just thinking aloud....

[Sihara]

That's the 18Z GFS, 00 GFS is way left and south of this run so maybe you'll feel better.

of course we are only out to 66 hours...

Thank you for the welcome news, gatorcane - but yeah, I guess it's still early, things can change rapidly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe it'll hit Veracruz, die inland, and then the remnant moisture will come up and rain on my yard.


Maybe a hint of w-casting there. Maybe

[tpr1967]

2nd shortwave over nw turned ike in 18z run see what happens here.

Maybe it'll hit Veracruz, die inland, and then the remnant moisture will come up and rain on my yard.


Maybe a hint of w-casting there. Maybe

[Chigger_Lopez]

my concern is that even if it goes further south this run, that by the time it gets back out over water and into the gulf, whatever it saw earlier that made it take a hard right turn, will still be there and still cause the same outcome...a right turn into western florida...albeit a little later than originally pegged. was it s trough or a front? -those things usually dip pretty low in the gulf to cause such a radical turn. -or maybe the 2 ridges really join together and it gets funnelled up into a peak inbetween the two that occurs over Florida? -but the path remains blocked to further north movement?? just thinking aloud....

The thought process would make sense to me. It was always a matter of timing, but sooner or later it would want to go poleward into a weakness in the ridge. Very few thought it could pull a Felix or Dean at this time of the year. The extended SW move buys it more time to find such weakness that some thought would happen east of FL

[ROCK]

Maybe it'll hit Veracruz, die inland, and then the remnant moisture will come up and rain on my yard.


Maybe a hint of w-casting there. Maybe

Hey Ed, I thought of you today as I mowed my yard.....popp ed opened an ice cold shiner afterwards....sure tasted good...

[tpr1967]

Surface feature at 84 hrs about the same place on west tip cuba maybe a tad south.

[Windy]

Quite far west at 108 hours.

[ROCK]

Surface feature at 84 hrs about the same place on west tip cuba maybe a tad south.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

surface entering the SGOM.....