ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Burn1]

Awesome! Like I have said before it is very difficult to get a direct strike from the Atlantic on SE Florida (yes I know Andrew which can be devastating!)....... Let's keep up the good work....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe it'll hit Veracruz, die inland, and then the remnant moisture will come up and rain on my yard.


Maybe a hint of w-casting there. Maybe

Hey Ed, I thought of you today as I mowed my yard.....popp ed opened an ice cold shiner afterwards....sure tasted good...

I had the sprinkler out this evening. I try to water enough to keep the yard green without making it grow any faster than it has to.

Looking at hour 108 GFS, Western edge of the 500 mb ridge, whose axis seems very close to the middle of the 588 dm line, judging from winds, doesn't seem to move as Ike goes just North of due West. If that ridge holds, it could be a Vera Cruz storm, than the mid-level remnants come up to Texas. Gotta see if that Western trough erodes Western edge of that ridge.

Theoretically, that could blow my entire 'season over?' thread, but I'm not too worried yet. It is just a model. 4 days out.

[fci]

If Ike goes SW across Cuba, then it is a whole new ballgame.
We know from experience that Eastern Cuba is where the highest mountains are and that they can tear apart a storm.
This is a pretty compact storm so the effect could be tremendous.

IF he gets through Cuba we are back to talking about the rather typical south of Cuba storm quite amazing considering where he will have come from.

My gut tells me that this will greatly change the dynamics and whatever is left of him will end up being a Northeast or East Central Gulf issue. I really don't feel a NOLA issue here and this is based on absolutely nothing scientific.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Chigger_Lopez]

Surface feature at 84 hrs about the same place on west tip cuba maybe a tad south.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

surface entering the SGOM.....

And to think just yesterday the black line said Ft. Lauderdale. What a difference a day makes with this one!

[Jinkers]

Surface feature at 84 hrs about the same place on west tip cuba maybe a tad south.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_108l.gif

surface entering the SGOM.....

And to think just yesterday the black line said Ft. Lauderdale. What a difference a day makes with this one!

I wonder what it will say tomorrow-lol

[zeusman]

Seems reasonable. And Derek isn't just a degreed met, he is a degreed met who specializes in tropical cyclones...

That beats me.. I am a degreed met who specializes in meso scale snowfall paterns in mountainous terrain.... Perhaps I should stick to the Avalanche boards

How come you haven't PM'd the admins and gotten the coveted blue and bolded nic and official S2K recognition as a pro-met?




BTW, I am all over these boards in a rabid lather whenever an off hour GFS run shows the happy intersection of sub 540 dm thicknesses and precip over SE Texas at tau 266...

Because I am a Degreed-met not a pro-met.

[Chigger_Lopez]

If Ike goes SW across Cuba, then it is a whole new ballgame.
We know from experience that Eastern Cuba is where the highest mountains are and that they can tear apart a storm.
This is a pretty compact storm so the effect could be tremendous.

IF he gets through Cuba we are back to talking about the rather typical south of Cuba storm quite amazing considering where he will have come from.

My gut tells me that this will greatly change the dynamics and whatever is left of him will end up being a Northeast or East Central Gulf issue. I really don't feel a NOLA issue here and this is based on absolutely nothing scientific.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

Yeah, I hate to use the term Climo, but sooner or later a NNE or NE turn SHOULD occur due to some front that SHOULD evenentually make it down.

[Windy]

Geeze, GFS wants to make it a Texas or Mexico storm. Way too far out to be reliable of course, but it's not recurving it at all.

[srainhoutx]

Ice down the Shiner Ed

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_144l.gif


WGOM...... I did say Tampico....so still in my cone...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ack. At 144 hours, ridge has actually built West, with Ike on a nearly due West course that could bring some weather to extreme South Texas if it were extrapolated.

Ack, indeed, but it is just a model

[shah8]

While this isn't as incredible as the gfdl runs, I'm still kinda thinking about it. It's a very long way to go with such little changes in latitudes. Looking at the NHC track (and keeping in mind that they are not missing points 24-48 hours out), I think we can only surmise that the gfs is agreeing with NHC's path to the 48 hour mark, and then saying that there will be no pickup at all on the 48 hour mark. Hence a run through Cuba.

Gotta realize, from about 48hrs -72hrs, there is a straight SW dip and back up across Cuba. That's quite a bit of dancing. That's going to be the hinge, where it will verify truely or break absolutely.

[Windtalker1]

While this isn't as incredible as the gfdl runs, I'm still kinda thinking about it. It's a very long way to go with such little changes in latitudes. Looking at the NHC track (and keeping in mind that they are not missing points 24-48 hours out), I think we can only surmise that the gfs is agreeing with NHC's path to the 48 hour mark, and then saying that there will be no pickup at all on the 48 hour mark. Hence a run through Cuba.

Gotta realize, from about 48hrs -72hrs, there is a straight SW dip and back up across Cuba. That's quite a bit of dancing. That's going to be the hinge, where it will verify truely or break absolutely.

Lets see.....in the last 3 days we had the models:

1) recurving out to sea.....then
2) a Ft Lauderdale hit....then
3) a Miami hit....then
4) A Fl Keys event....then
5) a Cuba event

I expect in the next 3 days we will see the models say:

1) a FL Keys event......then
2) A miami event....then
3) A Ft Lauderdale event....then
4) a recurve up the East Coast event

We see this all the time but yet alot of us take every shift as gospel. All of Florida is in the 5 day cone. I still say everyone from the Florida keys to the Florida panhandle, on both the west and east coast side should not let their guard down.

Just my thoughts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Stormcenter]

Ack. At 144 hours, ridge has actually built West, with Ike on a nearly due West course that could bring some weather to extreme South Texas if it were extrapolated.

Ack, indeed, but it is just a model

I have hard time buying into this run in September.

[Ed Mahmoud]

250 mb winds don't look too favorable for restrengthening after Cuba, with Northerly flow of 20 to 30 knots over Ike.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Because I am a Degreed-met not a pro-met.

If one of us mailed you a dollar, and you mailed back a forecast, would the NCAA strip you of your amateur status?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Texas is spared, if we believe the model (I think it curves before this...)

[Wthrman13]

Because I am a Degreed-met not a pro-met.

I'm a degreed met, and do research professionally, so I'm considered a "pro" met as well. In other words, Meteorology is my profession, even if I'm not an operational forecaster. If I were you I would definitely PM the admins

[Stormcenter]

250 mb winds don't look too favorable for restrengthening after Cuba, with Northerly flow of 20 to 30 knots over Ike.

Yep I noticed that. The GOM will not be a very nice place to be for a hurricane to put it nicely.

[tpr1967]

This looks like a october recurve with a strong cold front weird.