ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[tpr1967]

It moves NE then died stops ok right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Now that the GFS has spared Texas, I can go to bed and wait 'til morning to see the other 0Z and 6Z models. And people talking about icing down the Shiner Bock...

[attallaman]

Because I am a Degreed-met not a pro-met.

If one of us mailed you a dollar, and you mailed back a forecast, would the NCAA strip you of your amateur status?

Now that's funny.

[Wthrman13]

Keep in mind that we are getting to 7+ days out when talking about Ike in the central Gulf in this latest GFS run. God only knows what the UL environment would be like at that point. The models have been shifting so fast the past couple of days I'd like to see some more consistency and convergence on a particular solution before I buy into this slow movement into the GOM that the 0Z GFS is showing.

That said, it certainly looks to me like the model consensus now is to have Ike miss the weakness in the ridge and continue having a westward component of motion past day 5, which really surprises me, to be honest. I was expecting that the weakness in the ridge by the east coast trough would be enough to recurve Ike, either before or after a east-coast FL landfall, but the model consensus disagrees.

I think, at this point, that a track skirting the N coast of Cuba and gradually bending from WSW to WNW is most likely, and a U.S. landfall could be 7+ days away at this rate, in which regard all bets are off as to landfall intensity.

As with so many other storms this season, Ike could be with us for a good while... This is the year of the Ridge, it would seem.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Beyond 180 hours, they suck the brains out of the GFS (the technical term is they truncate the t-wave number to about half the former value, IIRC, the laymans term is a 35 km^2 square grid becomes an 80 km^2 grid, or resolution goes on vacation), so beyond 180 hours, GFS isn't the model for small scale things like TCs. Even before 180 hours, it isn't exactly sharp on the resolution. No global model is.


Anyway, I'd be curious to see how other globals look, and the 5 day dedicated track and intensity models.

[thetruesms]

Beyond 180 hours, they suck the brains out of the GFS (the technical term is they truncate the t-wave number to about half the former value, IIRC, the laymans term is a 35 km^2 square grid becomes an 80 km^2 grid, or resolution goes on vacation), so beyond 180 hours, GFS isn't the model for small scale things like TCs. Even before 180 hours, it isn't exactly sharp on the resolution. No global model is.


Anyway, I'd be curious to see how other globals look, and the 5 day dedicated track and intensity models.

The technical term may describe it more accurately, but "suck the brains out" is so much more colorful!

Perhaps this is the year of the ridge - the strength with which it seems to be building in, and is certainly progged to be is creating some counter-intuitive tracks

[attallaman]

Several of the METs on some of the NOLA TV stations are not feeling too easy tonight about some of the latest model runs but they stressed as those who come here for information already know the models move all over the place and change almost daily.

[ROCK]

Now that the GFS has spared Texas, I can go to bed and wait 'til morning to see the other 0Z and 6Z models. And people talking about icing down the Shiner Bock...

its getting closer ED..... EURO comes out at 2am.....should be interesting to see......I am going to bed also before the baby wakes up for the 3rd time tonight.......ughh....

[njweather]

Jeez... where is this beast going?!? Well, one thing's for certain...

[Stormcenter]

Models.......you either believe them or you don't. I still like the idea of a sharp NE hook before or after entering the GOM.

[Duddy]

Now that the GFS has spared Texas, I can go to bed and wait 'til morning to see the other 0Z and 6Z models. And people talking about icing down the Shiner Bock...

its getting closer ED..... EURO comes out at 2am.....should be interesting to see......I am going to bed also before the baby wakes up for the 3rd time tonight.......ughh....

Oh man, I do NOT miss that! Our little boy of 8 months just started sleeping right through until 10AM! It's like being on vacation!

[GoneBabyGone]

I think all of Louisiana just let out a collective "Oh poop" when they looked at the newest model updates.

Let's hope it goes more west before turning north (sorry texas). Or north much sooner (Sorry Florida)

Not sure if we could withstand another direct hit so soon. Some people here in BR still don't have power from Gustav.

[ROCK]

Models.......you either believe them or you don't. I still like the idea of a sharp NE hook before or after entering the GOM.

SC, you must like going against guidance ala JB.....

lets see you got 3 runs in row of EURO running to Upper TX to SW LA...then you have reliable models trending west and more west through out the day.......with the last GFS trending way west.....I dont think the NHC is going to throw that run out as they do the UKMET.......BTW- it did hook NE but in the WGOM.....

[Scorpion]

This is ridiculous.. going from out to sea to Texas in the matter of 2 days. I have never seen such model shifts.

[GoneBabyGone]

Which models are taking it to texas?



I only see one.

That being said, I have no clue about anything Hurricanes. Just find them fascinating.

[zeusman]

Because I am a Degreed-met not a pro-met.

If one of us mailed you a dollar, and you mailed back a forecast, would the NCAA strip you of your amateur status?

Now that's funny.

Yes, I am attempting to preserve my amateur status in case tropical prediction is added to the summer olympics. By the way are our Pro mets on this board steroid tested?

[Stormcenter]

I think all of Louisiana just let out a collective "Oh poop" when they looked at the newest model updates.

Let's hope it goes more west before turning north (sorry texas). Or north much sooner (Sorry Florida)

Not sure if we could withstand another direct hit so soon. Some people here in BR still don't have power from Gustav.

By that time Ike may not be anything close to what he is now (intensity). The upper level
environment will be hostile.

[ROCK]

Which models are taking it to texas?



I only see one.

That being said, I have no clue about anything Hurricanes. Just find them fascinating.

EURO,,,,

[Stormcenter]

Which models are taking it to texas?



I only see one.

That being said, I have no clue about anything Hurricanes. Just find them fascinating.

EURO,,,,

Oh no not the same Euro that had Hanna hitting N.O. as a Cat.5?

[NFLnut]

Models.......you either believe them or you don't. I still like the idea of a sharp NE hook before or after entering the GOM.

Well pardon moi if I DON'T!!