ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[mikef55]

HWRF major shift to the east with its new run

Link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[mikef55]

GFDL as well

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... lLoop.html

NVM scratch that new images havent carried over yet sry guys. all i got is the new hwrf so far.

[thetruesms]

wat? east?


That's not something I was expecting. I need to take a closer look at these runs. And to think I was about to go to bed

edit - I'm almost a little disappointed, it could have thrown some more excitement into the night

[fox13weather]

HWRF major shift to the east with its new run

Link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

last nights run chief.

[mikef55]

00Z UKMET further south and GFDL appears to be a bit more to the right of the previous run.

[Weatherfreak000]

[jhpigott]

HWRF major shift to the east with its new run

Link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

last nights run chief.

so what's the story on the new HWRF and GDFL models?

[vaffie]

GFDL very little change in track but it hooks to the right towards the Panhandle/west Florida at the end. HWRF still waiting on.

[AJC3]

HWRF major shift to the east with its new run

Link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

last nights run chief.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/You_Lose.ra

[southerngale]

0Z GFDL animation

Edit: oops, it didn't link directly. For those not familiar with this, just choose the Ike at the top of the drop down menu for GFDL, then click submit. Then click on FWD.

[jhpigott]

0Z GFDL animation

Edit: oops, it didn't link directly. For those not familiar with this, just choose the Ike at the top of the drop down menu for GFDL, then click submit.

Looks like a NE GOM storm on this run . . . would almost be kind of comical sitting here in south florida to watch a storm at this latitutde approaching from the east to bascially circle the entire penisula

[shah8]

the GFS goes west, does not feel a weakness.
The GFDL goes south, and definitly feels the weakness in the Carribean.

Which is it? I don't know.

[jhpigott]

GFDL very little change in track but it hooks to the right towards the Panhandle/west Florida at the end. HWRF still waiting on.

can't get the HWRF to load, is it still not out yet?

[Scorpion]

HWRF through Cuba and into the GOM. This is pretty unreal for a hurricane to track all this way.

[Wx_Warrior]

Link for us scorp.

[shah8]

00z GFDL is to the right of the 18z by a bit, and much like the 06z and 12z runs. 00z HWRF is to the left of the 18z.

They both feel the weakness near the end of the run with greater enthusiasm. I suggest that people think of the *shape* of the model, and not the precise points. If Ike is slower or faster than track suggests, then that can compress the whole path or extend it. SFL is definitly still under a shadow, as well as SW Florida and the North GC.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO...hmm.....interesting...

Straight due west and hits south of Brownsville in Mexico next sat....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090600!!/

[AdamFirst]

Unfortunately, if the models all check out, this is just going to make South Floridians more complacent and annoyed...Chalk another storm up on the "It's not going to hit us" category

[ROCK]

New EURO...hmm.....interesting...

Straight due west and hits south of Brownsville in Mexico next sat....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090600!!/

thats not Brownsville more like smig south of Corpus....what are you smelling?

[Cyclenall]

One thing is certain, this type of track would be unpreceded for September and location of the major hurricane. I can't imagine this dipping briefly into the northern Caribbean, just unreal considering where Ike formed. Climatology is getting the punch in the face.