ATL: IKE Discussion

[Rainband]

I agree kelly We don't want this either

[Cyclenall]

The hurricane looks a bit better organized from 4 hours ago though.

[ROCK]

Eep, I really hope this storm dosen't hit Louisana, at work tonight I had a small group of people stocking up on dry ice, and ice before returning to their homes, still without power even now. They were really worried about how the next few days were going to turn out for them. I'd hate for them to have to turn around and just come back with this storm on the way just as they were starting to pick up after Gustav.

Sorry Florida, I have to say I really hope this storm hits you, becuase I really don't want it to hit me. Lets all hope for the best, and it pulls a surprise and spins out to sea like the models were trying to suggest a few days ago.

I wouldn't worry about Ike.

Really? Enlighten us... where is it going?




bighaben... I understand you not wanting a visit from Ike. I think you could say that though, without telling Floridians you want it to hit them.

SC, If your going to make definte statements to a new member no less please back up your claim with factual data. You add nothing to the discussion......

[ROCK]

Eep, I really hope this storm dosen't hit Louisana, at work tonight I had a small group of people stocking up on dry ice, and ice before returning to their homes, still without power even now. They were really worried about how the next few days were going to turn out for them. I'd hate for them to have to turn around and just come back with this storm on the way just as they were starting to pick up after Gustav.

Sorry Florida, I have to say I really hope this storm hits you, becuase I really don't want it to hit me. Lets all hope for the best, and it pulls a surprise and spins out to sea like the models were trying to suggest a few days ago.

I wouldn't worry about Ike.

Really? Enlighten us... where is it going?




bighaben... I understand you not wanting a visit from Ike. I think you could say that though, without telling Floridians you want it to hit them.

the EURO is a smig south of Corpus at 0z.....starting to open my eyes for sure......BTW- SC thanks for sounding the all clear for LA, I am sure they appreciate it......

[jhpigott]

The hurricane looks a bit better organized from 4 hours ago though.

and looks to have moved mostly W from the start of the sat esclispe to the end of the esclipse

[BlueIce]

According to ECWMF, 97L could eventually become a cat.5 hurricane with maximum winds of 72m/s

Is it believable?

Looks like the ECWMF was on to something a week ago...

[jlauderdal]

The hurricane looks a bit better organized from 4 hours ago though.

and looks to have moved mostly W from the start of the sat esclispe to the end of the esclipse

on track and lets keep it that way, we dont want that thing here

[Brent]

[Hockey007]

ummm... really small eye?

[Bluefrog]

well well well ..... no coffee needed for the north central gulf coast residents .... the 5 am track should wake people up

[sittingduck]

I know that SFL is still in the cone and that we need to pay attention to this - but in reading the 5 am discussion I don't see the normal uncertainty in their words on the track other than the discussion of depth over Cuba. Is this based on the data from the NOAA flight, model concensus, or am I reading too much into the lack of words of uncertainty?

[HURAKAN]

5 AM Discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

To me this is uncertain. Basing your forecast in a large way on flip-flopping computer models.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

NHC still north of the models now, I suspect the NHC will shift a touch south yet again, I really can't believe that this may actually have a shot at getting into the Caribbean!

Anyway yet Ike's got a small eye still, a good spell overland will losen everything up I'd have thought however.

[sittingduck]

Thanks Hurakan

[attallaman]

Did anyone catch Jim Cantore's phone interview with TWC at the top of the hour? Cantore was reporting live by phone from Hanna's area and he commented on the latest update on Ike from the NHC and the latest model runs. He said it looks like Ike might spend some time across Cuba, lose some of it's strength, then enter the GOM and he hated to say it but he wanted to tell everybody in LA and the entire CGOM region to keep a very close eye on Ike, especially NOLA. Did anyone else catch that interview on TWC less than an hour ago?

[jlauderdal]

5 AM Discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.

To me this is uncertain. Basing your forecast in a large way on flip-flopping computer models.

i think they want to go further west but dont like to make big changed all at once as explained by max mayfield yesterday on local news. the trend is west and i think they see more coming, we are very fortunate again here in south florida

[KWT]

It does look like Ike is getting in better shape again and maybe strengthening.

Landfall on Cuba is looking pretty severe and the T&C and islands around it are still likely to get a big blow, indeed if the NHC track holds they will now be in the stronger northern quadrant.

[mpic]

If it goes forward and spends time across Cuba, does that necessarily result in a Gulf Coast storm or could it still turn to the north or NE?

Also, it seems like the Keys would still get quite a lashing on its dirty side, right?

[jlauderdal]

It does look like Ike is getting in better shape again and maybe strengthening.

Landfall on Cuba is looking pretty severe and the T&C and islands around it are still likely to get a big blow, indeed if the NHC track holds they will now be in the stronger northern quadrant.

hey mate, its early and im going off topic...who wins england or andorra, should be a tough match