ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Windy]

HWRF seems to smell New Orleans.



Man, I guess this is when a forecaster earns his or her money. Cuba and West Gomex, Cuba and East Gomex, Straights then central GOMEX -- these models have it all. The current model consensus is closest to the HWRF track, but I gotta tell you, with a spread like that, I don't know if that means much. Wonder if the 5AM will be another "split the difference" or if the NHC feels they have a more reliable handle on how strong the ridge will be than the models.

[ROCK]

HWRF seems to smell New Orleans.



Man, I guess this is when a forecaster earns his or her money. Cuba and West Gomex, Cuba and East Gomex, Straights then central GOMEX -- these models have it all.

its the trend that is concerning here.....Another left shift in the am? most likely, IMO


Ike going to feed off of Gus's leftovers in NO......man and they just got back to their city and might have to evac again...Oh brother

[jinftl]

the psychological impact that would have on the city as a whole...let's pray that no evacuation is needed so soon...talk about emotional roller coaster

HWRF seems to smell New Orleans.



Man, I guess this is when a forecaster earns his or her money. Cuba and West Gomex, Cuba and East Gomex, Straights then central GOMEX -- these models have it all.

its the trend that is concerning here.....Another left shift in the am? most likely, IMO


Ike going to feed off of Gus's leftovers in NO......man and they just got back to their city and might have to evac again...Oh brother

[jlauderdal]

Unfortunately, if the models all check out, this is just going to make South Floridians more complacent and annoyed...Chalk another storm up on the "It's not going to hit us" category

said it yesterday, if the track shifted south of key west at all preps in sofla would grind to a halt, people were much more aware for this one and started really early with wilma on their minds but this will set the complacency factor to pre-wilma, we can argue all day long about it but those this is what will happen

[Meso]

[superfly]

The good news is that if it does take that route across Cuba, there won't be a whole lot left of Ike.

[attallaman]

TWC was interviewing Jim Cantore from Hanna's zone by phone not too long ago because the weather didn't allow him to do a live shot from there but Cantore was commenting on the latest update from the NHC and the model runs on Ike, Cantore said it looks like Ike might take a trip across Cuba, could weaken some then enter the GOM and strengthen and he hated to say it but he wanted to tell everybody in LA to keep a close eye on Ike and all other interests along the CGOM including NOLA. He made those comments at the top of the hour. Did anyone else hear him say that?

[Nimbus]

The NHC track has been real good so far. This mornings comment in the 5 AM update about the upper air steering becoming more zonal was interesting.

You can see that verifying in the water vapor imagery. The winds south of 21N are generally starting to push almost due west through the Caribbean.

How hard Cuba gets hit will depend on where Ike reaches the bottom of his dip and starts gaining latitude again and how much ridging will be over Florida at that time.

I think the model shift west is done and they may shift right again back through the straits. Everything looks on track through tomorrow though.

[KWT]

Maybe superfly but its got about 4 times the amount of tume Gustav had over the very warm loop current, esp if it does head moree WNW.

Still it will probably weaken a huge deal if it cross Cuba, if it can avoid far eastern Cuba and if it makes it into Caribbean at all then we have a slightly more complicated set-up.

[physicx07]

TWC was interviewing Jim Cantore from Hanna's zone by phone not too long ago because the weather didn't allow him to do a live shot from there but Cantore was commenting on the latest update from the NHC and the model runs on Ike, Cantore said it looks like Ike might take a trip across Cuba, could weaken some then enter the GOM and strengthen and he hated to say it but he wanted to tell everybody in LA to keep a close eye on Ike and all other interests along the CGOM including NOLA. He made those comments at the top of the hour. Did anyone else hear him say that?

I think at this point everyone on the gulf coast has to keep a close watch. I think he's just being Captain Obvious.

[southerngreen]

When Ike gets in the se Gulf some models have shown Ike heading back NNE or a right turn towards the West coast,what should we be looking for synoptically for that to occur?

thank you!

Looks like the GFS traps Ike with deep layer ridging the wraps all the way around to his west, and he just hangs out in the eastern Gulf until a pretty sharp shortwave trough comes along and kicks him NE.

that is indeed a scary scenario for us (WcentFL) - on the long range loop it seems to 'power up' as it hangs out. let's hope it just wears itself out or some cool air comes down early and fizzles it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[attallaman]

TWC was interviewing Jim Cantore from Hanna's zone by phone not too long ago because the weather didn't allow him to do a live shot from there but Cantore was commenting on the latest update from the NHC and the model runs on Ike, Cantore said it looks like Ike might take a trip across Cuba, could weaken some then enter the GOM and strengthen and he hated to say it but he wanted to tell everybody in LA to keep a close eye on Ike and all other interests along the CGOM including NOLA. He made those comments at the top of the hour. Did anyone else hear him say that?

I think at this point everyone on the gulf coast has to keep a close watch. I think he's just being Captain Obvious.

Captain Obvious, that's a good one. Is there still a chance if Ike enters the GOM it could curve back to the E or NE and threaten WFLA or as it stands this morning if Ike does cross over Cuba and survives and does make it into the GOM that it will be a CGOM storm?

[KWT]

GFS hits central Cuba then takes it west across the island until it comes off then takes something of a NNW jog it seems:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

However the trend remains the same, Cuba seems to be the destination of Ike...the big questrion is does this make the Caribbean sea or not, the 06z GFS says no but its quite possible it will...

[physicx07]

TWC was interviewing Jim Cantore from Hanna's zone by phone not too long ago because the weather didn't allow him to do a live shot from there but Cantore was commenting on the latest update from the NHC and the model runs on Ike, Cantore said it looks like Ike might take a trip across Cuba, could weaken some then enter the GOM and strengthen and he hated to say it but he wanted to tell everybody in LA to keep a close eye on Ike and all other interests along the CGOM including NOLA. He made those comments at the top of the hour. Did anyone else hear him say that?

I think at this point everyone on the gulf coast has to keep a close watch. I think he's just being Captain Obvious.

Captain Obvious, that's a good one. Is there still a chance if Ike enters the GOM it could curve back to the E or NE and threaten WFLA or as it stands this morning if Ike does cross over Cuba and survives and does make it into the GOM that it will be a CGOM storm?

IMO, it is possible to curve back towards the gulf coast of Florida. There are several fronts moving by to the north while Ike is in the gulf. The models seem to feel that some of them will be too weak to draw Ike up. But it's a long way out so things can change and Ike may recurve sooner than most of the models currently seem to think.

[KWT]

Very slow motion over the loop current:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

Only a drift westward it seems...

Moving N/NNE by 132hrs.

[southerngreen]

I just want our members and guests to know that there is still a large room for error and even though the cone may be shifting south, it could easily come back up. Until the information to be gathered today, I believe, by the NOAA RECON plane about Ike's surroundings is not digested by the computer models, these models are just guessing the intensity of the ridge.

If the current model forecast holds after this information is gathered, then you can be more certain about Ike's future path.

By the way, what about Hurricane Kate's path:thanks for that reassuring graphic LOL - i have to laugh cause crying just gets your face wet and you can't see to pack your evac stuff!

[LanceW]

Very slow motion over the loop current:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

Only a drift westward it seems...

Moving N/NNE by 132hrs.

I've been watching that model run. Definately seems more N and E than previous. Damn, I thought we'd be ok this time around. I know, just one run.

[physicx07]

Anyone have a GOM TCHP map post-Gustav? Could you please post it if you have it?

[Hurricane Cheese]

I pray that the people of LA won't be complacent concerning Ike. There is an increasing threat that a significant system could be heading in the general direction of NOLA by next weekend.

Pray that people fight through the fatigue and do what they have to do to get out of harm's way if it does indeed come to that.

[KWT]

Looking at the modfel trends its still too early to know what Ike will do, we sort of don't have too many systems to compare Ike too so we are sort of flying blind. Its quite possible if it tracks the entire length of Cuba it emerges barely a hurricane but equally it could dive right into the Caribbean and probably stay steady.

Still far too early to say!