ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[attallaman]

I pray that the people of LA won't be complacent concerning Ike. There is an increasing threat that a significant system could be heading in the general direction of NOLA by next weekend.

Pray that people fight through the fatigue and do what they have to do to get out of harm's way if it does indeed come to that.

I agree with you but many of the evacuees returning to NOLA from Memphis by Amtrack who were interviewed by local TV media yesterday said if the order was given to evacuate NOLA again they wouldn't do it.

[mpic]

I pray that the people of LA won't be complacent concerning Ike. There is an increasing threat that a significant system could be heading in the general direction of NOLA by next weekend.

Pray that people fight through the fatigue and do what they have to do to get out of harm's way if it does indeed come to that.

One big problem is the $$ to evacuate again...loss of work, gasoline, etc.

[KWT]

Heading for NE Florida on this run, I'm not suire there will be that sort of weakness to do that though, the GFS can overdo weaknesses:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180m.gif

[Sabanic]

I pray that the people of LA won't be complacent concerning Ike. There is an increasing threat that a significant system could be heading in the general direction of NOLA by next weekend.

Pray that people fight through the fatigue and do what they have to do to get out of harm's way if it does indeed come to that.

One big problem is the $$ to evacuate again...loss of work, gasoline, etc.

I agree, but please don't forget all of the people along the MGC. These people literally lost EVEYTHING during Katrina, and having seen all the coastal areas first hand after Katrina no one was hit harder than they were. There were mandatory evacuations last weekend in LA/MS, and all of South Mobile County. There is going to be a huge shortage of $$ for all these people if they are forced to evacuate again. The only bright spot is the fact that from SE/LA eastward anything that was bought such as food, gas, . . . . etc they didn't have to use it so it is still available.

[Sabanic]

Heading for NE Florida on this run, I'm not suire there will be that sort of weakness to do that though, the GFS can overdo weaknesses:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180m.gif

NW/F KWT

[KWT]

My bad thats what I meant.

The thing xis even if IKe is totally ruined over Cuba (like down to TS strength) its going to have a good 2-3 days over the gulf even if it does hit the eastern gulf coasts, plenty of time for reorganising in good condtions.

[sittingduck]

sheesh - I have my Canadian distributors flying into Tampa on Monday afternoon and flying back Thursday afternoon. I don't want them to come if we have a chance of getting hit and/or them not being able to get out on Thursday. I need to let them know what to do by tomorrow night - I have no idea what to tell them - think by tomorrow evening that we may have a better idea?

[jhpigott]

wonder if Steve Lyons and Max Mayfield are doubting those southern models now like they were yesterday . .

[mattpetre]

Tough call on the business trip, I would warn them about travel complications from the storm and let them make their own decisions. Looks like it could be a very ugly travel week throughout the SE US from all of this storminess.

I really didn't want Ike to prove my forecast right... I guess we in the US just hope it travels the whole length of Cuba at this point (but sheesh, imagine being someone in an area that was already hit by Cat 4 Gustav in Cuba.) This is going to be a very long week with Ike unless a trough really digs in soon to push him out quicker than now thought.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I haven't been following the model trends religiously, but is there ANY sign of a trough digging that will bring this thing north before, during or after it hits Cuba?

[sphelps8681]

5:00 am discussion:

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recorded a maximum flight
level wind of 104 kt over the northwest quadrant and an SFMR peak
wind of 96 kt over the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Based
on these data...the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. The
aircraft meteorologist also indicated that Ike has a closed 24 nm
diameter eye. A dropsonde within the eye measured 983 mb but that
was with a surface wind of 16 kt. As a compromise...the central
pressure is adjusted slightly to 982 mb. Although northerly shear
seems to be persisting over the cyclone...it does not appear to be
affecting the inner core convection as much as it was previously.
Intensity models continue to indicate that the shear will decrease
in about 24 hours...which should allow for some strengthening
before Ike moves near or over the northern coast of Cuba. The
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous package but now
depicts some weakening as Ike traverses the Cuban coast. Of
course...any slight deviation north or south of the forecast will
either allow for strengthening over water or a longer period of
weakening over land. Later on...conditions appear rather conducive
for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.


Initial motion is estimated at 255/14...within the deep-layer flow
of a strong ridge digging southwestward over the Bahamas...through
The Straits of Florida...and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Dynamical models suggest that the ridge will shift to a more zonal
pattern during the next 24 to 36 hours which will cause Ike to move
in a more westward fashion. Afterward...guidance indicates that
the Southwest Ridge extension over the southeastern Gulf/Straits of
Florida will erode just enough to induce a gradual turn toward the
northwest by the end of the forecast period. There is much
uncertainty in the models as to how close Ike will approach the
northern coast of Cuba. In fact...the two hurricane models
actually bring the cyclone over the island in 36 hours. Without
question...the particular track that the GFDL and HWRF are
suggesting could have a significant impact on Ike's intensity.
The official forecast is weighed heavily on the model consensus and
is adjusted just to the left of the previous advisory to compensate
for the westward-shifting model trend.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 06/0900z 22.4n 67.1w 100 kt
12hr VT 06/1800z 22.1n 69.0w 100 kt
24hr VT 07/0600z 21.8n 71.6w 100 kt
36hr VT 07/1800z 21.6n 74.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 08/0600z 21.8n 76.6w 115 kt
72hr VT 09/0600z 23.0n 80.5w 90 kt...near coast of Cuba
96hr VT 10/0600z 24.5n 83.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 11/0600z 26.0n 85.5w 110 kt

[caneman]

As I expected. Back East

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL ends just east of Tampa,after it tracks thru the north coast of Cuba but not crosses the island.This time,it does not go to the NW Caribbean.

WHXX04 KWBC 061128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.5 66.2 260./13.0
6 22.0 67.7 250./14.8
12 21.7 69.1 260./12.8
18 21.3 70.3 250./11.9
24 21.1 71.3 256./ 9.5
30 20.9 72.5 264./11.3
36 20.8 73.5 262./ 9.8
42 20.7 74.3 267./ 7.6
48 21.0 75.3 283./ 9.7
54 21.3 76.3 286./ 9.6
60 21.5 77.3 285./10.1
66 21.9 78.1 299./ 7.7
72 22.5 79.1 300./11.6
78 23.1 80.1 300./10.8
84 23.6 81.1 298./10.3
90 24.1 81.7 308./ 6.9
96 24.8 82.4 315./ 9.4
102 25.4 82.8 325./ 7.0
108 26.0 83.1 334./ 7.0
114 26.6 83.1 357./ 6.1
120 27.2 83.2 352./ 5.5
126 27.8 83.3 354./ 6.6

[caneman]

This 06 run from both GFS and GFDL is very concerning for Tampa Bay. Both indicating very powerful storms.

[cycloneye]

Is this the first sign that the trends will be east again and the rest of the models will follow GFDL? I guess we will have to wait for the next runs to find out.

[jhpigott]

This 06 run from both GFS and GFDL is very concerning for Tampa Bay. Both indicating very powerful storms.

also notable that this run of the GDFL just skirts the Cuban coast rather than taking it thru the gut of Cuba . . . shift north and east by the GFS and GDFL . . . lets see if the models follow and this becomes a trend . . . south florida (yes, even SEFL) don't take your eyes off of Ike . . . now up . . . HRWF

[caneman]

Cycloneye. The 06 GFS is way back East too. The GFS and GFDL are models that NHC has stated have performed best this year. Looks for a shift back East at 11.

[Sabanic]

Is this the first sign that the trends will be east again and the rest of the models will follow GFDL? I guess we will have to wait for the next runs to find out.

Trend west, trend east . . . Here we go for at least 4 more days

[DESTRUCTION5]

Someone better turn the windshield wipers off..

[hiflyer]

I would far happier if there had been one G4 flight by now but it was canceled...then saw a sked for this morning that was changed to this afternoon which will probably be too late to get into the 0z model runs tonight...probably will see the impact for the Sunday 0500 advisory.