ATL: IKE Discussion

[Trader Ron]

06z GDFL run just East of Key West.

[Trader Ron]

Sorry WEST Of Key West. Coffee hasn't kicked in.

[KWT]

I wouldn't like to think what would happen to the keys if the GFDL is right, certainly not a great trend for them to observe.

Ed, Ike's outflow is really impressive on the eastern side!

[sphelps8681]

Steve Lyons TWC just said forecast track will be South of Fl just nipping the keys and then into the GOM.

[ronjon]

Steve Lyons TWC just said forecast track will be South of Fl just nipping the keys and then into the GOM.

I wouldn't let my guard down in S FL just yet - this storm will be on your doorstep in 72 hrs. A slight northward adjustment to the track could put the upper keys, Homestead, and Miami back under the gun. The keys could certainly get hammered with the storm.

[Trader Ron]

Steve Lyons TWC just said forecast track will be South of Fl just nipping the keys and then into the GOM.

IF that's the case, I hope EVERYONE gets out. They will take quite a lick from Ike.

[KWT]

No certainly south Florida is still in the game if the model decide to adjust back northwards again, which to some extent some of the better 06z ones have done.

For now though if i was in the keys I'd be getting ready to get out there, going to be on the dirty side from the looks of things.

[boca]

I don't see any northward componet to Ike's track until its west of Florida. I'm not saying South Florida is in the clear since its SE of us.I'm feeling pretty good its not going to affect me here in Palm Beach county.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jlauderdal]

I'm watching Miami's Channel 7 WSVN and the reporter was interviewing people preparing for the storm and one lady said doughnuts as one of the things she bought. Exactly, there is nothing better than being inside your house passing an storm, watching the TV News coverage on the storm and eating doughnuts!

how about the cheetos and potato chips people load up on, thats a great idea, those would taste great after a day of no power and 90 percent humidity, nice and crispy after 24h...canned food, a couple bags of charcoal and fruit is the way to go of course water and spirits if you so desire..i have power generation so i dont have those issues but alot of people dont so they better think about it, the media does a good job telling people how to handle it and guess what they dont listen

[Thunder44]

No one in the entire state of Florida, should be relying of any of model tracks or trends right now. The models are just not that good. Just prepare for a major hurricane strike.

[Sabanic]

No one in the entire state of Florida, should be relying of any of model tracks or trends right now. The models are just not that good. Just prepare for a major hurricane strike.

Exactly. Everyone watch Ike closely and be prepared in case.

[jhpigott]

I don't see any northward componet to Ike's track until its west of Florida. I'm not saying South Florida is in the clear since its SE of us.I'm feeling pretty good its not going to affect me here in Palm Beach county.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

probably right, but it is a little disconcerting that one of the best tropical models (GDFL) out there that the NHC relies on and is usually a trend setter with the rest of the models was on the western side of the guidance last night and on the eastern side of the guidance this morning . . . let's see what the next couple runs look like.

If the next run stays off the coast of cuba and tracks up the western coast of florida . . . then i'd say we better start paying ALOT more attention

[jlauderdal]

Steve Lyons TWC just said forecast track will be South of Fl just nipping the keys and then into the GOM.

IF that's the case, I hope EVERYONE gets out. They will take quite a lick from Ike.

that could be one nasty storm surge for the chain as they would be on the ne quad of a major, for those that haven't had the pleasure of driving to key west, there is one road called highway one with the atlantic on one side and the gulf on the other and a ton of bridges connecting each key and its flat flat flat, so a healthy surge i expect less than 8 feet would completely over wash those islands and of course the one road which is why they kick the tourists out today and then the residents will start moving out but i can tell you that you wont see a huge percentage leaving like new orleans, its just not in their genes, it would really take some heavy persuasion from officials to move some of the conchs out

[meteorologyman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I see 2 scenarios here

scensrio #1 I believe if Ike can get a head of the High pressure thats pushing her SW, she will have a more poleward motion following the mositure getting rather close to the keys, then into the GUlf, then the front in Gulf of Mexico will push it back into FL like Charley, but maybe not as fast.

Scenario # 2 Ike continues moving SW not able to get ahead of the high pres, hitting NW haiti then finally get ahead of high pressure it between Cuba and Jamaica, then moves into NW Cuba into the Gulf... not sure how or where the front will be at this time but then every1 in the Gulf would have to watch

[Sanibel]

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[tolakram]

You know what really stinks, this will bring more rain to Haiti who has suffered more than enough this year. Cripes what is up with this season.

[Sanibel]

probably right, but it is a little disconcerting that one of the best tropical models (GDFL) out there that the NHC relies on and is usually a trend setter with the rest of the models was on the western side of the guidance last night and on the eastern side of the guidance this morning . . . let's see what the next couple runs look like.

Bingo. I just woke up but that was EXACTLY what I said to watch for last night.


See how the tail-end of the NHC track has stayed the same? That, to me, is a track that possibly snaps back towards us with an unexpected weakness further down.

[Myersgirl]

Bingo. I just woke up but that was EXACTLY what I said to watch for last night.


See how the tail-end of the NHC track has stayed the same? That, to me, is a track that possibly snaps back towards us with an unexpected weakness further down.[/quote]

Last night Jim Farrell on Channel 5 said that could not happen because of high coming out of the Pacific?

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, Ike continues to plunge west-southwest and may miss (to the south) the next forecast point.

[KWT]

I think the thing to watch is just where Ike goes inland into Cuba. I think its still odds on that happens, even though some of the models have shifted north they are still over Cuba.

I still suspect this hits the eastern side and if it does then Ike is going to likely have a very long track right up the spine of the island, could be a minimal hurricane/TS if that happened when it emerges again...