ATL: IKE Discussion

[pavelbure224]

I see a dip down from the central US down to the GOM will that have any effect on Ike or is that what the models is trying to figure out right now??

[cycloneye]

Ike Saturday plan of the day for the future missions.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT SAT 06 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID O7/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-098

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IKE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
       C. 07/1500Z
       D. 21.6N 74.1W
       E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 08/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 1009A IKE
       C. 07/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
       A. 08/0600,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1109A IKE
       C. 08/0230Z
       D. 21.8N 76.6W
       E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
       A. 08/1200Z
       B. NOAA9 1209A IKE
       C. 08/0530Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT
       08/1500Z. A G-IV FOR 09/0000Z. A WP-3 AXBT DEPLOYMENT
       AT 08/1600Z.

    3. REMARKS: N0AA 42 WILL FLY AN 8 HR RESEARCH MISSION
       DEPARTING TISX AT 07/2000Z. SFC TO 8,000 FT.


[Dean4Storms]

You guys are seeing the shear overtake and tilting the system, the LLC is still tracking straight for the NHC forecast points. It shows up well on Rainbow IR......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[SWFLA_CANE]

Is shear is forecast to die down today?

[HouTXmetro]

I don't think the DR/Haiti can take another hit.

[KWT]

Even on that Dean its pretty obvious with the convection wrapping around the center that Ike is a good deal south of where it should be, pretty much bang on the GFDL guidence.

Still looks like its going to head very close to Grand Inglua.

[Meso]

[cheezyWXguy]

I think theyre going to keep it at 115mph for 11am. The eye is starting to show up again and red is trying to wrap around it...I think the shear has really started to decrease over Ike.

[wxman57]

I see Ike at 21.9N/68W which is S of the track and if he continues to move in this direction he will be well S of the next NHC point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

Look for Ike's center near the southwest part of the eye. Remember, you're looking at the top of a cylinder that is angled away from you when you look down into the eye, as the satellite is way down by the Equator. So put a cylinder on the table in front of you and angle the top away from you about 22 degrees to get an idea what I'm talking about. The center of the bottom of the cylinder on the table will not match the center you estimate on top.

That said, I'd put it near 21.8N/68.1W as of 1315Z - about 25nm south of NHC's track. Consensus models continued south overnight and I think Ike has a great chance of slamming into Cuba and tracking over land for a considerable period of time. That could knock the heck out of it, maybe down to a disorganized TS by the time it emerges into the SE Gulf. We saw how Gustav suffered quickly crossing the narrowest (and flatter) part of Cuba last week. If Ike spends 24 hours over mountainous terrain then it won't be a major hurricane in the SE Gulf Tuesday.

[wxman57]

I think theyre going to keep it at 115mph for 11am. The eye is starting to show up again and red is trying to wrap around it...I think the shear has really started to decrease over Ike.

Models initialized at 95kts/110mph. Recon is almost there. Borderline Cat 3 looks good.

[Frank P]

You guys are seeing the shear overtake and tilting the system, the LLC is still tracking straight for the NHC forecast points. It shows up well on Rainbow IR......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

my take for what its worth

0900 UTC 5:00 am HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 67.1W


1200 UTC 8:00 am HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 67.9W


At 1800 UTC - FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 69.0W

So its already south of its 1800 UTC forecast point

[wxman57]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

Lets hope so wxman!

[gatorcane]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

Wxman East of Florida? Is that still on the table so to speak?

[Portastorm]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

LOL! You gotta believe in a cone that size!

[physicx07]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

LOL!!!

[6SpeedTA95]

Morning guys

This storm has looked fairy disorganized the last 36 hours or so as its interaction with shear has really kept it fairly weak. Though still a cat3 storm. I think we'll probably see weakening continue overall, it may bump up in intensity briefly between now and cuban landfall but the eastern side of cuba is quite mountainous. If it moves along the length of cuba that will substantially disrupt the storm and if it goes into the GOM hopefully it goes in as a TS or weakening Cat1. The last thing the US gulf coast needs is another hurricane, especially a major hurricane.

[jhpigott]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

I agree, somewhere between east of Florida and Mexico looks like a good forecast.

Wxman East of Florida? Is that still on the table so to speak?

rank amateur opinion, the further south it gets in the short term (like the GDFL) the more time it allows for a weakness to develop in the ridging thus allowing for a turn to the NW-N at a further east longitude

[nolecaster]

Why does everyone say this is going to hit Haiti? It's not going to touch Haiti. Cuba, probably yes. Haiti, no way.

[wxman57]

One other possibility which the GFS is indicating over the past few runs is that Ike may follow along generally with the NHC track (probably south of their track), turn NW to the eastern Gulf and slow down considerably. GFS then shoots it off to the ENE across the Tampa area ahead of an approaching front. New GFDL is hinting at that scenario, though it doesn't go out far enough to see any ENE turn.