ATL: IKE Discussion

[Steve]

lmao j. I've known you for 7-8 years and don't see you As a wc. Not looking to stay on generator power for any extended period. Peace

[Portastorm]

Have you been watching this storm? It's clearly become disorganized from 36 to 48 hours ago as I clearly stated. It needs to continue this trend if its going ot make landfall. Watching a cat4/5 over open waters with no life endangered is a beautiful thing, watching something like that roar ashore is downright scary. Compared with earlier in its life this storm is clearly more disorganized as I plainly stated.

Um, to answer your first question: yes, I have been watching it since its formation. Is it more disorganized as compared to 48 hours ago when it was a Cat 4? Sure. But it's obvious to me at least that in the last 24 hours, Ike has become "re-organized" and I would hardly call it "fairly weak" or "fairly disorganized." If you "plainly stated" as such, I guess I missed that.

Further, you mentioned a weakening trend and I don't see that happening at all until it reaches a landmass.

[jlauderdal]

lmao j. I've known you for 7-8 years and don't see you As a wc. Not looking to stay on generator power for any extended period. Peace

its all good but if you see anyone from my state -removed- let me know and they get a PM from me, im sure that will scare them but seriously nobody should want this one, i have received several PM's from my fellow Floridians asking me what i thought and I can tell there is real concern about this one and there should be

[KWT]

Yeah compared to 48hrs Ike is *less organised* maybe, but its far from disorganised, far far from it, now Hanna when it was near Haiti, that was disorganised!

[6SpeedTA95]

Have you been watching this storm? It's clearly become disorganized from 36 to 48 hours ago as I clearly stated. It needs to continue this trend if its going ot make landfall. Watching a cat4/5 over open waters with no life endangered is a beautiful thing, watching something like that roar ashore is downright scary. Compared with earlier in its life this storm is clearly more disorganized as I plainly stated.

Um, to answer your first question: yes, I have been watching it since its formation. Is it more disorganized as compared to 48 hours ago when it was a Cat 4? Sure. But it's obvious to me at least that in the last 24 hours, Ike has become "re-organized" and I would hardly call it "fairly weak" or "fairly disorganized." If you "plainly stated" as such, I guess I missed that.

Further, you mentioned a weakening trend and I don't see that happening at all until it reaches a landmass.

The general trend of the central pressure since thursday morning/afternoon has been for weakening. Ike now has a CP of 962 which is up considerably, again over the last two days. I never said the stomr was weak I said fairly weak in direct comparison with where THIS storm had been in days prior. Not sure how I could have made that any clearer. I am also unsure why so many people on here get bent out of shape when someone suggests a storm may be becoming disorganized, or may be disorganized compared with a prior state. Ike has had substantial shear interaction which has inhibited development. Given its proximity to land I consider that a good thing ...

I said similar things about a Gustuv possibly weakening and got the same reactions...gustuv weakened slowly. dunno...

[cheezyWXguy]

Morning guys

This storm has looked fairy disorganized the last 36 hours or so as its interaction with shear has really kept it fairly weak. Though still a cat3 storm. I think we'll probably see weakening continue overall, it may bump up in intensity briefly between now and cuban landfall but the eastern side of cuba is quite mountainous. If it moves along the length of cuba that will substantially disrupt the storm and if it goes into the GOM hopefully it goes in as a TS or weakening Cat1. The last thing the US gulf coast needs is another hurricane, especially a major hurricane.

"Fairly disgorganized" ... "fairly weak" ... as compared to what?! It's a Cat-3 dude and looks pretty darn good on satellite. Not sure what you're on about.

Have you been watching this storm? It's clearly become disorganized from 36 to 48 hours ago as I clearly stated. It needs to continue this trend if its going ot make landfall. Watching a cat4/5 over open waters with no life endangered is a beautiful thing, watching something like that roar ashore is downright scary. Compared with earlier in its life this storm is clearly more disorganized as I plainly stated.

well, thats the difference between a 145mph cat4 and 110/115mph cat2/3. But its not disorganized.

[6SpeedTA95]

well, thats the difference between a 145mph cat4 and 110/115mph cat2/3. But its not disorganized.

IT's not uncommon for a well organized cat 3 to have an eye, this storm doesn't have an eye and convection only appears to be ramping back up over the last 4 to 6 hours which isn't really enough to say the storm is reintensifying, could just be a temporary uptick in convective activity. We'll see though.

[Vortex]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

[Just Joshing You]

well, thats the difference between a 145mph cat4 and 110/115mph cat2/3. But its not disorganized.

IT's not uncommon for a well organized cat 3 to have an eye, this storm doesn't have an eye and convection only appears to be ramping back up over the last 4 to 6 hours which isn't really enough to say the storm is reintensifying, could just be a temporary uptick in convective activity. We'll see though.

As we have seen, an eye is no proof of strength. Remember, Ike had an eye as a 35 KT Tropical Storm.

[KWT]

6SpeedTA95, your right it has been weakening due to shear, problem is whilst it is indeed not as peachy as it was two days ago the fact is its not fairly disorganised, its still a pretty well round up hurricane.

Anyway Ike is going to come in just a tiny bit south of the forecast point from the last advisory it seems, south but not by a huge deal but it does make the difference for Cuban coasts.

Also Ike clearly does have an eye, its not very strong but its there...

[Vortex]

The CDO is become more symetrical and the outflow has improved in all quadrants...Ike appears to be about to undergo intensification if not already..

[Sanibel]

The structure looks like pre-strong storm.

[cpdaman]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

looks like maybe the last 2 hours (west motion) , but before that i cleary see an eye around 22.3 nearly 6 hours ago (6:45 utc)

and yes need to be monitored for a NW turn, and also watch that ULL (pushing wsw north of ike) http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[Windtalker1]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

I see an end also to his S/SW movement as well wit in the last 5 hours....I'm afraid that it west from here on in. The big question now as you have stated is " when will the Turn occur?"

[cycloneye]

I dont know if its legit the 121kt at Flight level.

[cpdaman]

vortex you would not be surprised to see this resume a WSW motion for the next 12 hours would you? i think it's certainly possible if not likely, the ull is a player

[x-y-no]

Morning guys

This storm has looked fairy disorganized the last 36 hours or so as its interaction with shear has really kept it fairly weak. Though still a cat3 storm. I think we'll probably see weakening continue overall, it may bump up in intensity briefly between now and cuban landfall but the eastern side of cuba is quite mountainous. If it moves along the length of cuba that will substantially disrupt the storm and if it goes into the GOM hopefully it goes in as a TS or weakening Cat1. The last thing the US gulf coast needs is another hurricane, especially a major hurricane.

"Fairly disgorganized" ... "fairly weak" ... as compared to what?! It's a Cat-3 dude and looks pretty darn good on satellite. Not sure what you're on about.

Have you been watching this storm? It's clearly become disorganized from 36 to 48 hours ago as I clearly stated. It needs to continue this trend if its going ot make landfall. Watching a cat4/5 over open waters with no life endangered is a beautiful thing, watching something like that roar ashore is downright scary. Compared with earlier in its life this storm is clearly more disorganized as I plainly stated.

I wouldn't call any Category 3 storm disorganized or weak.

The fact is Ike maintained more strength over the past two days than generally forecast - in spite of facing some significant shear.

[shah8]

Wait another couple of hours before declaring SW trend over! It's stairstepping its way down.

[KWT]

Well the thing I see Sanibel is the size seems to have grown, its got plenty of time to really ramp up though if it can sort itself out, at least 30-36hrs.

Also motion has been closer to the west but just like the SW motion before it, I suspect its all part of a stair-stepping processes towards 255-260 heading.

[ColdFusion]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

I see an end also to his S/SW movement as well wit in the last 5 hours....I'm afraid that it west from here on in. The big question now as you have stated is " when will the Turn occur?"

What turn are we talking about? Forecast calls for a gradual curve over the next 5 days?