ATL: IKE Discussion

[Vortex]

12Z Nam coming in and the trend is further north after a brief wsw motion..Pay attention to the 500mb pattern.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HeatherAKC]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

looks like maybe the last 2 hours (west motion) , but before that i cleary see an eye around 22.3 nearly 6 hours ago (6:45 utc)

and yes need to be monitored for a NW turn, and also watch that ULL (pushing wsw north of ike) http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Could someone elaborate on the ULL?

What are the implications?

(Watching anxiously on the SW coast this weekend, although I will be back in Miami tomorrow night......)

[jlauderdal]

Wait another couple of hours before declaring SW trend over! It's stairstepping its way down.

i thought they moved in straight lines like nhc tracks, seriously we really need a disclaimer of how many frames someone watched when declaring motion change, kind of like nice to know location when looking at forecasts

[tolakram]

Recon is about to fix a center, stop guessing.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

I tend to focus on the present storm motion and on model trends..The facts are: Ike for the last 3-5 hours has ben heading almost due west(270). The trends on the 6z guidance indicate the possibility of a hard right turn..More later

looks like maybe the last 2 hours (west motion) , but before that i cleary see an eye around 22.3 nearly 6 hours ago (6:45 utc)

and yes need to be monitored for a NW turn, and also watch that ULL (pushing wsw north of ike) http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv

Could someone elaborate on the ULL?

What are the implications?

(Watching anxiously on the SW coast this weekend, although I will be back in Miami tomorrow night......)

bump bump (seems like these things are the great "mystery" of forecasting)

[jlauderdal]

12Z Nam coming in and the trend is further north after a brief wsw motion..Pay attention to the 500mb pattern.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

people can rip the nam for tropical activity but it was rather useful when Irene did its craziness on a Thursday afternoon i believe

[Sanibel]

Despite what some were saying my view is that Ike is still 255*-260* and in GFDL lower track (not deep Cuba track but south-lier).

[CaneCharmer]

Thank goodness we here in Miami are off the hook, so to speak. I just cancelled our reservations out of town. Last night we were so concerned, but this shift has really eased the tension around here. Miami has dodged another monster!

[Blown Away]

12Z Nam coming in and the trend is further north after a brief wsw motion..Pay attention to the 500mb pattern.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Nam dips lower towards Hispanola and never landfalls into Cuba then heads for Keys.

[NEXRAD]

12Z Nam coming in and the trend is further north after a brief wsw motion..Pay attention to the 500mb pattern.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

people can rip the nam for tropical activity but it was rather useful when Irene did its craziness on a Thursday afternoon i believe

NAM did a good job with Fay, from what I saw with it. Also, the NAM can be worthwhile for large scale synoptic features (as opposed to storm track). Afterall, highs, troughs, and upper lows are what move tropical cyclones alone.

- Jay

[meteorologyman]

That ULL is definetly keeping Ike from becoming very big, but once it gets a head of it, look out I see it growing in size

[Grease Monkey]

Thank goodness we here in Miami are off the hook, so to speak. I just cancelled our reservations out of town. Last night we were so concerned, but this shift has really eased the tension around here. Miami has dodged another monster!

Yep miami now has a protection shield.

[Sanibel]

Note the larger eye in the microwave shot. Not sure how to interpret this but one guess is it goes to a large eye then strengthens over the Gulf Stream to a smaller eye.

I've been poor on intensity this year, so I'm not really sure.

[hiflyer]

Saw a 28.29 going thru what appears to be the center on an obs...4kt winds.....seeing a 105kt sfc on the south side. That 121 came with an asterick on the surface data flagging it....

[SWFLA_CANE]

Despite what some were saying my view is that Ike is still 255*-260* and in GFDL lower track (not deep Cuba track but south-lier).

I think the next advisory they will average it out to about 255-260. I don't think the NHC will change the track much if any I think they will mention the models have come a bit north and east and may change the track if the trend continues.

[cpdaman]

anyone know a good way to monitor the location and curvature of the SW periphery of the big atlantic high pressure system

besides this?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

i mean the 3 hour trend would seem to point to a slight erosion, but i would wager a guess to say that is inacurrate way to monitor this? i mean otherwise that would seem "bad" for key's/s. fla, nO?

X Y NO i bet you have an understanding of this right?

[NEXRAD]

The upper low is inhibiting outflow N of Ike. As for this feature and it affecting the storm's movement, I'm not seeing clear signs of that happening right now. The sub-tropical ridge is the key factor for the hurricane's track, and with the upper low situated well east of that ridge feature, it's really more a tag-along right now.

As for the ridge and Ike, there seems to be some debate as to when Ike will stop the south of west movement. While the NHC expects this in another 24 to 36 hours, NWSFO Key West mentioned this earlier today (in the predawn forecast discussion): "HURRICANE IKE WILL LIKELY RESUME A DUE WESTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT."

- Jay

[KWT]

6hr average is around 255-260 degrees, shorter term it has been moving a little closer to due west but thats only for a short term motion.

The problem is the eye can't see to keep a regular shape and that suggests to me a low end cat-3 still.

[cycloneye]

105kt at SMFR is legit.This remains a cat 3.