ATL: IKE Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3281 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:58 am

Look at this loop to see the eye popping out.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3282 Postby Sanibel » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am

What I'm seeing is a hazy hurricane with a good core and well-formed eye. From past storms this strikes me as a hurricane that hasn't yet done its full intensification burst and eye-clearing yet.

NHC is right on top of Inagua now. :eek:
Last edited by Sanibel on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3283 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am

tolakram, well given that came out an hour ago, the NHC really did a poor job on that advisory!

Anyway IKe seems to have moved around 260-265 in the last few hours though the eye is still a little iregular in shape makes it a little hard to follow.
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#3284 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am

Why is it that EVERY time I look..someone claims its moving West? :roll:


The storm is exactly on course...moving right towards Cuba. The GFDL called it perfectly...now...let's see what the GFDL does with it next.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3285 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X wrote:seems to me that
Ike is on a west heading for 2-3 hours now zooming on the visble riding 22


still 260-265 IMO
Last edited by cpdaman on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3286 Postby meteorologyman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:00 am

Ike is waking up from it beauty rest
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#3287 Postby Just Joshing You » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:01 am

When is the last time the NE Quad was sampled?
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Re:

#3288 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:05 am

chris_fit wrote:Why are they doing circles right now?


If I remember what Pojo said it's to either gain or lose altitude.
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#3289 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:06 am

looks to me like its slowing and about to turn West if it hasn't already...
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#3290 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 am

I went to pump gas to my car and the lines are already stressing. Also, there was not much gasoline in the tanks and the pump was slow. Lets see what happens with Mysterious Ike.
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Re:

#3291 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 am

gatorcane wrote:looks to me like its slowing and about to turn West if it hasn't already...


No. :) It's still moving w/sw, that sat loop I linked to is drifting with the storm and if the drift is correct the storm center should stay at the same location in the image. Ike has been south of just about every forecast point today, there has been no unexpected west movement.
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#3292 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:08 am

gatorcane wrote:looks to me like its slowing and about to turn West if it hasn't already...


well next frame will either show stair step (sw likely IMO) or seem to confirm west movement
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3293 Postby nolecaster » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:10 am

The thing I don't understand is how the NHC just dropped it to a 2 right now. There were points in the last day and a half where I could see them dropping it to a 2, but now? Ike is clearly not a cat-2 hurricane right now.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3294 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:10 am

You can clearly see it slow down at the end of this loop, nearly always a directional change follows:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3295 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:10 am

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3296 Postby NEXRAD » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 am

As I noted earlier today, there's been some debate within the NOAA/NWSFO forecast divisions as to when Ike's west turn will commence. NWSFO Key West expects the turn tonight, compared with the NHC having it occur later than that. Regardless of when such a turn happens, it won't make a tremendous difference in terms of Ike's near-term latitude, which will favor the system maintaining a heading towards the southern half of the Florida Straits or near/over Cuba. Given the ridging, Ike won't have much a chance at north of due west movement over the next day or so.

- Jay
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Re:

#3297 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 am

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Why is it that EVERY time I look..someone claims its moving West? :roll:


The storm is exactly on course...moving right towards Cuba. The GFDL called it perfectly...now...let's see what the GFDL does with it next.


check the location of the originating post just like a forecast or model read, sometimes that has an effect
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3298 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:13 am

gatorcane wrote:You can clearly see it slow down at the end of this loop, nearly always a directional change follows:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


I am seeing a storm directly on course with the NHC...AND slightly south of the forecast....so...I think we are gonna disagree. Needless to say.
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#3299 Postby txwatcher91 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:15 am

Yep, to my eyes this one is on track, slightly south of the forecast point, but overall that won't impact the track long term. The question is, does Ike move over all of Cuba, or go far enough to the north or south that he isn't impacted? Only time will answer that question, and that will greatlly impact future intensity.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3300 Postby cpdaman » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:15 am

this shows a SW dip in last half hour don't laugh just look lol

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/

click on (infared b/w) and then click loop and then select "carib"
Last edited by cpdaman on Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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