ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Ike really is trying to clear its eye out at the moment, not quite there yet but it looks like its undergoing some strengthening right now.

Looks like the outer part of the western outflow will be going over the Turks very shortly looking at the vis...things going to start going downhill soon there.

FWIW I still see 260 roughly, heading towards the sticky out part of east Cuba on the north side...

[dhweather]

Well, that equates to 113.9274 mph, so that rounds to 115 MPH (cat 3) or down to 110 MPH (cat 2)

I suspect the NHC will wait until at least 2PM to change the intensity, if it is warrented.

DHweather is that funny math your doing? the 90% should be of 125 KNOTS not mph so your answer of 113.9274 should be KNOTS, or 90% of 143.8 mph right.[/quote]

I don't need to be doing math while on sinus meds.

I stand corrected.

[cheezyWXguy]

You can clearly see it slow down at the end of this loop, nearly always a directional change follows:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

I am seeing a storm directly on course with the NHC...AND slightly south of the forecast....so...I think we are gonna disagree. Needless to say.

On that loop I can see the storm turn to the west in the last couple of frames...also, the shape of the storm looks a lot better, despite having a poor IR presentation. Ike is a very confusing storm...

[tolakram]

You can clearly see it slow down at the end of this loop, nearly always a directional change follows:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

I don't see a slow down, what i see is the eye spot moving back and forth which might be giving the appearance of a slow down as the eye drifts back NE.

Put your mouse cursor over the eye in this loop. If the storm slows down the eye should start lagging behind your cursor.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[deltadog03]

VDM looks like its a touch south of due west... more W moyion then before..

[NEXRAD]

Eye movement is slightly south of due west. The system's deepest convective activity is now situated north of the center, and this may cause a slight right wobble, but overall general movement is between WSW and W, and that should continue.

- Jay

[chris_fit]

Why are they doing circles right now?

If I remember what Pojo said it's to either gain or lose altitude.

That's what i would think... but the obs show steady altitude...

[cpdaman]

yes VDM confirms still WSW movement

[dhweather]

Take a piece of paper, hold it on your screen in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

put the paper at the bottom of the eye feature at the start and the end of the loop.

It's moving WSW, no doubts.

[Sanibel]

953 for now which should hold the storm steady.

I'd trust NHC track for now. Main question is how it emerges from Cuba in over 36 hours.

[Blown Away]

Take a piece of paper, hold it on your screen in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

put the paper at the bottom of the eye feature at the start and the end of the loop.

It's moving WSW, no doubts.

I'm seeing WWSW.

[tracyswfla]

ya'll are going to have a heart attack over wobbles!

[StormWarning1]

Take a piece of paper, hold it on your screen in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

put the paper at the bottom of the eye feature at the start and the end of the loop.

It's moving WSW, no doubts.

Just turn on the Lat/Lon box at the top of the screen. That clears up any issue about direction.

[rockyman]

James Spann...chief meteorologist at ABC33/40 in Birmingham has updated his thoughts on Ike:

"I believe the greatest landfall risk now is along the Florida West Coast from Cedar Key south to Fort Myers, including the Tampa Bay area. This idea means Alabama stays on dry side with little rain or impact here."

http://www.alabamawx.com

[Blown Away]

VDM looks like its a touch south of due west... more W moyion then before..

Deltadog, is SFL EC Mainland pretty much in the clear. There is nothing beyond slight probability that would bring Ike this way, correct?

[NEXRAD]

James Spann...chief meteorologist at ABC33/40 in Birmingham has updated his thoughts on Ike:

"I believe the greatest landfall risk now is along the Florida West Coast from Cedar Key south to Fort Myers, including the Tampa Bay area. This idea means Alabama stays on dry side with little rain or impact here."

http://www.alabamawx.com

That's a rather bold assertion this far out in the forecast, especially given how the GFS, for instance, didn't do a great job initializing the depth of Ike, and I'm recalling some of the other models having the same issue.

- Jay

[deltadog03]

I think the threat for south florida is lower, but no where near "all clear"

[Sanibel]

Normally a deeper curve into Cuba would suggest a sharper hook to follow. But not this year with Gus's NW-WNW track. But this could all be meaningless if the pattern has changed since.

GFS latching onto recurve that GFDL could already be ahead of it on.

[Thunder44]

Some of SFMR winds, also had reported rainfall values. So they may be contaminated, especially if the flight level winds don't match up.

[Vortex]

I'm a big historian and enjoy the past storms to give indications of the future paths..If we stepped back and purely looked at climatology without the bias of models then what would your consensus be for future Ike? I bring this up because Hurricane Irene in 1999 was the perfect example of when to throw out the models and look at climatology.