ATL: IKE Discussion

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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3341 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:06 pm

cape_escape wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Normally a deeper curve into Cuba would suggest a sharper hook to follow. But not this year with Gus's NW-WNW track. But this could all be meaningless if the pattern has changed since.

GFS latching onto recurve that GFDL could already be ahead of it on.



I know the set-up is completely different, however I can't help but too remember Charleys right hook after Cuba....Not to mention all the talk about Donna over the past few days. I'm staying on my toes just in case!



you and me both! its no biggie when we start in the middle of the cone, cause we know it will shift later. but when it shifts, and then starts trending back...that is when it is time to worry more.

ideally, the pendulum effect will play out...first to one side, then to the other, then less to the other, then less to the other, until a middle path is finalized. If that is the case, I think the FL/AL line would be the landfall.

BUT I think, like others have said, that being September, it seems likely that a trough or front will either redirect a gulf storm, or else cause a weakness to develop between the ridges that pulls it more northward.

Slow movement in the gulf, aka the GFS, just doesn't ever bode well, and normally means the storm will be shunted NE. And teh GFDL is looking uglier for my area too. I don't like, no I don't. Let's hope the more western thinking pans out afterall.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3342 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:07 pm

Image
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#3343 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:08 pm

No, Andrew's track was completely different - had Ike continued due west it would be similar, but, even then it would be different...
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3344 Postby El Nino » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:10 pm

I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.
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Re: ATL IKE: Recon Discussion

#3345 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:12 pm

Peak flight level wind before the next pass was at=From 125° at 106 knots
(From the SE at ~ 121.9 mph)
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Re: Re:

#3346 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:13 pm

Sabanic wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
dhweather wrote:I'd just ask everyone to ignore the media, unless they are specifically citing the NHC - we've heard "Andrew's path", "Florida panhandle" and so on.

When "judgement day" comes, the only ones held responsible is the NHC.


channel 10 miami is the only media i would pay attention too and only because max mayfield works there, the other stations were horrible with fay

i could easily start my own thread with all the untrue information distributed by local media, its rather pathetic


And we have DBW here in Mobile. As good as it gets.


yep, what is he saying
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3347 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:13 pm

El Nino wrote:I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.


It's a compromise. If the storm goes even a little north of their track it would be over a lot less land and would therefore not weaken much. They are covering in case that happens, but yes if it does spend more than a day over Cuba it would weaken a lot more.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3348 Postby StormWarning1 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:14 pm

El Nino wrote:I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.

It is a blend of the possibility it will stay over Cuba a long time or move off Cuba quickly.
They said a lot more weakening if it stays over a long time.
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#3349 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:15 pm

Looks like IKE is starting to strengthen a bit....
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3350 Postby Windy » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:15 pm

El Nino wrote:I don't understand how the NHC can projet a 25kts weakening over Cuba if Ike will stay more than one day over the island. I think, it will be downgraded to a TS.


They don't know how long it will spend over Cuba. They're being statistical about it; drop it by 25 kts and then the forecast won't be off much either way.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3351 Postby El Nino » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:16 pm

Ok, thank you. Does anybody can tell how are the conditions in the GOM for re-intensification. Will it be like Gustav or like Charley/Katrina ?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3352 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:16 pm

I hope Ike does stay strong...and here's why:

IF Ike take a considerable hit, it will unravel itself a bit. When that happens, storms end up growing in area a whole lot, and their wind field increases overall, even if the wind speeds weaken (i.e. Gustav) But in this case, the storm will go back into the gulf, over the loop current, and definitely have a good change at strengthening again, especially if it stalls per the GFS. That would result in not only a very strong storm, but a much larger storm in area than we are seeing now. It will still end up a very powerful storm no matter where it hits though.

So which woul dyou rather see? a storm that stays compact, avoids land, and stays the same size...hitting as a major? -- or a storm that is 3 times the size as it is now...that still hits as a major??
Last edited by TreasureIslandFLGal on Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3353 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:17 pm

As others have said just a blend, if it were to take NHC track would probably be weaker.

Also it does seem to be slowing down just a little though it looks as if the eye is elongating W-E which maybe why it looks like its slowed a good deal I'm not sure.
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Re: ATL IKE: Recon Discussion

#3354 Postby El Nino » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:18 pm

Now, what's the official pressure ? 954 or 958 ?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3355 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:19 pm

El Nino wrote:Ok, thank you. Does anybody can tell how are the conditions in the GOM for re-intensification. Will it be like Gustav or like Charley/Katrina ?


NHC expecting conditions to be rather condusive so I'm guessing that there won't be the shear that was in the gulf with Gustav and therefore Ike will likely strengthen.
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#3356 Postby LowndesCoFire » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:19 pm

Image

Does anyone think that a track such as this is shaping up in the future? (Kate 1985)
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#3357 Postby sprink52 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:20 pm

This is Google Earth's image of Ike and the NHC Track...sort of kool.

Image
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#3358 Postby KWT » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:20 pm

LowndesCoFire, too early to say but the GFS is suggesting something rather close that, maybe hitting Cuba a touch further east however I reckonand spending a good bit more time overland therefore as a result.
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#3359 Postby Frank2 » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:22 pm

Per Hurakan's post, no, it's still on the same heading mentioned in the TCD...

I agree about Max Mayfield - he's been very good to listen to about Gustav and Ike, though I worry that, unlike when he was at the NHC, he might feel some pressure from the Producer to "hype" things up a bit - I hope that isn't the case...

The other channels have ranged from "all right" to totally wrong, but, at times they've all given bits of good information...

Still, I agree that between listening to only Max Mayfield, Steve Lyons and the NHC forecasters is the best bet, since the OCM's always do go for the hard sell, and, that includes the hype...

I had to laugh yesterday when one of the OCM's (Jim Cantore or Mike Siedel) were on the beach in the Carolinas "wearin' the blue thing" (as Bill Cosby once referred to it), complete with rain-gear TWC hat, but, in the background, kids could be seen playing in the sand in shorts and t-shirts...

The media - you have to love 'em (or leave 'em)...

LOL
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3360 Postby Sabanic » Sat Sep 06, 2008 12:25 pm

jlauderdal wrote:And we have DBW here in Mobile. As good as it gets.


yep, what is he saying[/quote]

jl not much we do not already know, but he did say it was a little too early to know excactly where Ike would go, but he hinted at landfall possibly being somewhere from SE/LA to the Big Bend.
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