cape_escape wrote:Sanibel wrote:Normally a deeper curve into Cuba would suggest a sharper hook to follow. But not this year with Gus's NW-WNW track. But this could all be meaningless if the pattern has changed since.
GFS latching onto recurve that GFDL could already be ahead of it on.
I know the set-up is completely different, however I can't help but too remember Charleys right hook after Cuba....Not to mention all the talk about Donna over the past few days. I'm staying on my toes just in case!
you and me both! its no biggie when we start in the middle of the cone, cause we know it will shift later. but when it shifts, and then starts trending back...that is when it is time to worry more.
ideally, the pendulum effect will play out...first to one side, then to the other, then less to the other, then less to the other, until a middle path is finalized. If that is the case, I think the FL/AL line would be the landfall.
BUT I think, like others have said, that being September, it seems likely that a trough or front will either redirect a gulf storm, or else cause a weakness to develop between the ridges that pulls it more northward.
Slow movement in the gulf, aka the GFS, just doesn't ever bode well, and normally means the storm will be shunted NE. And teh GFDL is looking uglier for my area too. I don't like, no I don't. Let's hope the more western thinking pans out afterall.