ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

Outside here is a rock solid blue sky which is high pressure. That is what is pushing Ike south. My only point would be whether this would erode by the time Ike gets here.

I see track more like 255* maybe even less right now. Folks this is headed into Cuba and should weaken. Gilbara, Delicias, Nuevitas, Cuba should have a major hurricane strike them from the ENE I guess tomorrow morning.

How Ike emerges from there is part II.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

tolakram,on your goople graphic still the latest VDM position is not there.

[wxman57]

While using VDMs can lead to track error it doesn't mean that they will in any particular case. If the track was WSW and VDMs support WSW there is reason to believe they are accurate. If they supported W then there would be reason to suspect. Let's see what the next VDMs yield.

Did you see the graphic I posted? I don't think you understand. The shorter the time interval between VDMs, the greater the chance of a significant error in the heading. You just cannot make the assumption that the VDM was in the direct center of the eye. If you use VDMs 6 or 12 hours apart, the margin of error is much lower.

See my 6-hr motion measurement above - 256 deg at 13.4 kts.

[DelrayMorris]

If this one comes to southeast or central LA then I am moving!!!! I don't wish it on anyone but please, someone else take this one!

Having done the Frances/Jeanne dance in 2004, I feel your pain. We still had debris laying around that we just had to leave there an hope for the best because there was no place to put it.

Not that you wish it on anyone, but maybe it'll keep heading west to someplace that hasn't had one for a while.

[cycloneye]

If Cuba is hit from the ENE,how many times it has occured in the past centuries,or its a first?

[shah8]

I might agree with wxman that the sfmr might be reading too high.

Then I remember the dropsonde info 124kts.

[wjs3]

Interesting point:

NHC raised it's current intensity to 95 knots. SFMR reports over the last 15 minutes are quite a bit stronger even than that however, with readings of 104, 106, 110, 111, and 114. So if that 114 number is correct, it would be a borderline Category 4 hurricane already.

I have a feeling this will be category 4 very soon, regardless what NHC is officially saying for now.

Don't any of you think it's at least a little strange that many (most?) SFMR observations made over the past few storms are always higher than FL winds? Those SFMR winds you want to believe are 10-15 kts higher than FL winds. I doubt Ike's strongest winds are at the surface, so that questions the SFMR observations. Wouldn't a 102kt FL wind at 700mb typically argue for 90% reduction to 92 kts vs. 114 kts? I think the SFMR instruments are reading too high.

Couldn't agree more. For instance:

170800 2129N 06852W 6983 02815 9694 +095 +095 263081 082 103 032 00

or

175200 2150N 06858W 7344 02401 9660 +159 +157 116102 108 114 015 00

both look suspicious because surface winds are higher than aloft as you point out, Wxman. Also note that both (but especially the first one) come during squalls--look at the rain rate on that first one! And rain confuses the SFMR. Need to take with a grain of salt! It's a strong storm, but not sure I'd take those high SFMR obs literally yet.

WJS3

[DESTRUCTION5]

If Cuba is hit from the ENE,how many times it has occured in the past centuries,or its a first?

I could not find one..

[wjs3]

By the way, Wxman, I don;t agree that many (most) SFMR obs are reading higher than flight level winds. Most HDOBs I've seen that's not the case. But some of the very high ones have been suspect in their relationship between fl level and surface as you point out.

WJS3

[jlauderdal]

Interesting point:

NHC raised it's current intensity to 95 knots. SFMR reports over the last 15 minutes are quite a bit stronger even than that however, with readings of 104, 106, 110, 111, and 114. So if that 114 number is correct, it would be a borderline Category 4 hurricane already.

I have a feeling this will be category 4 very soon, regardless what NHC is officially saying for now.

Don't any of you think it's at least a little strange that many (most?) SFMR observations made over the past few storms are always higher than FL winds? Those SFMR winds you want to believe are 10-15 kts higher than FL winds. I doubt Ike's strongest winds are at the surface, so that questions the SFMR observations. Wouldn't a 102kt FL wind at 700mb typically argue for 90% reduction to 92 kts vs. 114 kts? I think the SFMR instruments are reading too high.

similar to the hwrf bombing out every system in its sights, there is some work to be done in the off season that's for sure

[shah8]

cycloneye. There has not been a hurricane that strikes from the ENE in at least 50 years, and offhand, not in a hundred. Ike would be pretty unique.

[Skyhawk]

While using VDMs can lead to track error it doesn't mean that they will in any particular case. If the track was WSW and VDMs support WSW there is reason to believe they are accurate. If they supported W then there would be reason to suspect. Let's see what the next VDMs yield.

Did you see the graphic I posted? I don't think you understand. The shorter the time interval between VDMs, the greater the chance of a significant error in the heading. You just cannot make the assumption that the VDM was in the direct center of the eye. If you use VDMs 6 or 12 hours apart, the margin of error is much lower.

See my 6-hr motion measurement above - 256 deg at 13.4 kts.

Yes, I did see your graphic. I saw it when you posted it before also. I understand quite well, thank you. Notice I said that although they "can lead to track error" there is no reason they always lead to track error especially the maximum track error.

[KWT]

Yeap I see about 255 as well, looks like this is heading right for the little sticking out part of eastern Cuba to me.

Looks like the GFDL is on the money for the short term with it just going south of Great Inagua island, which would more then likely take a major hit from the eyewalls of Ike.

T&C also going to take a hit from the dirty side, may not be quite as bad as it was going to be 36hrs ago however which is good.

[tolakram]

I was out for a bit. Are you saying I should correct an older graphic because of the change? No problem, just want to make sure.

edit: just put up the latest from AF. With kids I don't always have the ability to warn before leaving the computer.

[captain east]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SE FL is almost in the all clear..

[Skyhawk]

I just calculated a heading from the last two VDMs I have and came up with a heading of between 255 and 254 subject to various measurement errors. I used a movement of 10 min S and 38 min W. Of course, the positions are reported to the nearest minute so it is possible that the motion was 9 min S or 11 min S and that the motion was 37 min W or 39 min W. O yes, the VDMs probably weren't exactly in the middle of the eye. For a 30 nm diameter eye I wonder how much error I shouls estimate. Would they have been off 1, 2, 3 miles or what?

[KWT]

Barring a huge wobble your probably right, still in the cone just but its looking very unlikely now that SE Florida is going to get effected by Ike.

Cuba will no doubt bring Ike a big deal, don't be at all surprised if Ike is down to a low-mid end TS after it emerges in the gulf but looking at the gulf of Mexico conditions, I've got a bad feeling Ike will be ramping up the whole way upto landfall, as even the far northern gulf supports a strengthening cat-2.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Haven't been watching this one too close 'til now. What was the lowest pressure of Ike's life cycle thus far?

[tolakram]

I have to step away again, no more graphics unless someone else wants to take over.

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Put your cursor over the eye and watch how it stays in the same location, under your cursor, throughout the loop. Now look at the latitude and longitude lines as they move during the loop. Ike is moving W/SW (mostly west) fairly steadily. That might not be as accurate as recon, but it still presents a pretty good estimate of direction.