ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

I was going to say the same thing....The models just seem to show the further movement in time....

Im not sure why we bother looking at all these lines...LOL has any of these off the wall models proved themselves?

Because this is a model thread and it can be a representation of the future track by the NHC if you can objectively look at what they are showing.

[deltadog03]

Well, you still have to look at them....I just went back and looked at the 12z EURO...The euro is doing 2 things and might explain why its that far west. First thing is, looks like EURO is moving IKE a bit too fast. 2nd it appears that the EURO hangs that trof out west much longer than the GFS. Euro is notorious for hanging trofs out there too long...(More of a fall/winter season) Still a very hard forecast right now. Euro is just waaay left outlier...lol

[crazycajuncane]

The trends are definitely NOT Louisiana's friend.

Too many people are just getting on their feet and many more have no begun to pick up the peices. I don't think South Louisiana can handle another storm mentally and physically. I'll be watching, but for now I am going to enjoy what we have today. Nice UNUSUALLY cool weather. A lot of people won't mention IKE around here.

We have lots of hope. This storm can tear up in Cuba or swing NE or go west. Still early to panic. Too early to worry.

[robbielyn]

Cape_escape: Thank you robbielyn.....that sounds much better than having no power for a week![/quote]

You're welcome. ike is smaller than gustav was and we didn't get anything with that and unless we get a good trough to push it back east once in the gom, a nw direction looks more likely. hurricanes like the path of least resistance and as long as that strong ridge is there.... I just feel for my kids. they live in panama city hope it goes way west of them.

[TTheriot1975]

When do the next model runs come out? In central time? Thanks!!

[Windy]

When do the next model runs come out? In central time? Thanks!!

Like 1 or 2 AM, I think. The models start at 0Z -- or midnight GMT, which is 5 hours ahead of central. They're incredibly complicated and even though they run on some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, they take a little while. So they'll start running them at around 7PM central and they'll finish running and post results between 1 and 2 AM. I think the EURO comes out at 3 AM or so.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

[dogblues64]

The locals are used to that in the Keys...they take it all in stride...almost a yearly ritual....if not a ritual happening a few times each season. Locals know the surge threat from living in paradise.

Looking at Ikes present motion I would say the UKMET may have the right idea with ike going into the carribean than into the southern gulf. I would never thought possible a couple of days ago.

Which would be good for the keys , though the evac for nothing would questioned even though it should not be.

Nope, don't mind the false evacs.. it's those Cat 4's coming directly at us that don't set too well. We are only 18' highest elevation here in Key West, most places are just a few feet above sea level.

We haven't had a surge from the Atlantic side that anyone can remember, it always comes from the Gulf side. We have a great Reef system on the Atlantic side about 6 miles out that really saves us! Now, don't get me wrong, if we get a big and strong enough storm.. all bets are off! :-0

It's not a ghost town yet, but close... you would be surprised at how many locals stay here including myself. It's almost.. it is a tradition.. lol! Let's just hope Ike stays South through Cuba, cause a Cat 4 or even a 3 can do a lot of damage if we get a direct hit!

[MusicCityMan]

any of you guys think this may go to the west coast of fla? Depending on where or if he gets picked up by the trough

[caneseddy]

Max Mayfield on Channel 10 said that while a direct impact on the Keys and South Florida at this time seems minimal, he will feel more comfortable tomorrow at 5:00 am when the NOAA G-IV plane data is fed into the models for that advisory. The NOAA plane is currently flying around the atmosphere doing the samples

[PTrackerLA]

The trends are definitely NOT Louisiana's friend.

Too many people are just getting on their feet and many more have no begun to pick up the peices. I don't think South Louisiana can handle another storm mentally and physically. I'll be watching, but for now I am going to enjoy what we have today. Nice UNUSUALLY cool weather. A lot of people won't mention IKE around here.

We have lots of hope. This storm can tear up in Cuba or swing NE or go west. Still early to panic. Too early to worry.

I'm really hoping Cuba destroys Ike (sorry Cuba) for the sake of the US Gulf coast. Like you said, it's going to be hard to get everyone to leave again which could turn into a very bad situation. Still way too early to really worry and I'm still so busy with work because of Gustav (working all weekend ). My front door is still boarded up and all shutters still closed, ridiculous. At least the yard is cleaned up now .

[stormchazer]

any of you guys think this may go to the west coast of fla? Depending on where or if he gets picked up by the trough

I think things look good for Florida at this time though you still need to watch. NOAA is currently doing air sample missions which will be fed into the models tonight so when the runs come out in the morning, we should have a good feel.

Again, keep an eye, but I think we have dodged this bullet. Sunday will tell the tale for peninsular Florida.

**These are opinions of course so stay informed through the NHC.**

[jhpigott]

Max Mayfield on Channel 10 said that while a direct impact on the Keys and South Florida at this time seems minimal, he will feel more comfortable tomorrow at 5:00 am when the NOAA G-IV plane data is fed into the models for that advisory. The NOAA plane is currently flying around the atmosphere doing the samples

so the 0z models that start running midnight EST will have the NOAA G-IV data fed into them?

[Windy]

Max Mayfield on Channel 10 said that while a direct impact on the Keys and South Florida at this time seems minimal, he will feel more comfortable tomorrow at 5:00 am when the NOAA G-IV plane data is fed into the models for that advisory. The NOAA plane is currently flying around the atmosphere doing the samples

so the 0z models that start running midnight EST will have the NOAA G-IV data fed into them?

The 0Z models start running at midnight GMT, not midnight EST. They'll start up in about 2 1/2 hours, and will FINISH at at around 2 to 4 AM EST. And yeah, they'll have the NOAA upper air info input as well, assuming it was sampled today (I haven't looked).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Max Mayfield on Channel 10 said that while a direct impact on the Keys and South Florida at this time seems minimal, he will feel more comfortable tomorrow at 5:00 am when the NOAA G-IV plane data is fed into the models for that advisory. The NOAA plane is currently flying around the atmosphere doing the samples

so the 0z models that start running midnight EST will have the NOAA G-IV data fed into them?

I hope Stewart does the 11 pm EDT advisory. He usually goes into detail in his discussions. Even if all/some of the data from the Gulfstream didn't make the models, he'd probably write whether the data supported the model initialization or not.

[dogblues64]

I'm keeping an eye out, and look forward to seeing the oz models tonight! I watch everything from NHC, CNN, TWC, Models, and Here. With the links and info I get here, I'm always at least a few hours ahead of NHC, thanks everyone!

[Windy]

Max Mayfield on Channel 10 said that while a direct impact on the Keys and South Florida at this time seems minimal, he will feel more comfortable tomorrow at 5:00 am when the NOAA G-IV plane data is fed into the models for that advisory. The NOAA plane is currently flying around the atmosphere doing the samples

so the 0z models that start running midnight EST will have the NOAA G-IV data fed into them?

I hope Stewart does the 11 pm EDT advisory. He usually goes into detail in his discussions. Even if all/some of the data from the Gulfstream didn't make the models, he'd probably write whether the data supported the model initialization or not.

Wait, is Stewart still around? I thought he retired?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFS rollin..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[tolakram]

Wait, is Stewart still around? I thought he retired?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/stacy_returns.shtml

[Windy]

Wait, is Stewart still around? I thought he retired?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/stacy_returns.shtml

Damn. That guy is like John Wayne with a doctorate.

[tolakram]

18z GFS rollin..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Is it a little south of the last run? Looks like it may take Ike just south of Cuba.