ATL: IKE Discussion

[Windy]

Eye is back.

[cpdaman]

slap me if you want but this doesn't look like

WSW http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

tell the people in the turks and caicos it is just a "illusion"

this could be the hwrf showing some validity

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Look at this WV loop:

That is the strongest ridge we have seen in the Western Atlantic all summer and it came just in time to spare Florida...just look at it building westward with Ike (see the orange area NE of Ike pushing west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

wouldn't surprise me to see Ike south of Cuba in the Caribbean and some more southward adjustments may be necessary at least for the 3 day cone...

heck if the US is lucky it won't even make the turn north at all (which by the way may happen when I look at how powerful that ridge is moving in tandem with Ike)

[cpdaman]

Look at this WV loop:

That is the strong ridge we have seen in the Western Atlantic all summer...just look at it building westward with Ike (see the orange area pushing west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

wouldn't surprise me to see Ike south of Cuba in the Caribbean and some more southward adjustments may be necessary at least for the 3 day cone...

heck if the US is lucky it won't even make the turn north at all (which by the way may happen)

gator i think that reflects the upper level ridge nicely seen on the 200-700 mb cimss map, the 500-850 mb map is the steering flow and i don't think that can be made out as clear on the wv .

[Sanibel]

Oh boy. Intensification jerks.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Once the evacuation begins the two drawbridges in Monroe County including Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will not open for marine traffic (boats) to avoid any vehicular traffic (cars, etc.) delays.

isn't the new jewfish creek bridge not a drawbridge? Last time I was through there I thought they had already taken down the old bridge.

[gatorcane]

I see a weakness sitting right over the FL peninsula right now. It was left by Hanna but its closing up.....so Ike should miss it.

[KWT]

cpdaman, overall its still losing lattiude about the rate that was forecasted, probably around 260 now.

The thing that I do see is the system is a touch slower then was expected, Ike is only now coming over the 21z point.

[Flakeys]

The new bridge is open, but the old Jewfish bridge is still there.

[cpdaman]

Oh boy. Intensification jerks.

i have been called worse jk

this is very bad news for SE bahamas hopefully these intensification jerk start jerking more sw before the cdo goes over them

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

and i keep linking this because this loop is usually a half hour ahead of the nhc floater and the map doesn't move like the ramdis loop

[PTPatrick]

I know its just history...but like I said, I just find it interesting that the only 3 that made it west of FL all made landfall near MS/LA.

I will go out on a limb and say I think UKMET is out to lunch with this going into the Caribbean for brief time. The consensus is pretty much dead on with a scrape along N coast of Cuba and into the GOM moving WNW or NW. It already appears to be starting to go more west than wsw.

[FormerFlatlander]

Texas Division of Emergency Management has an Ike planning conference call scheduled 4:30 Sunday afternoon.

Texas treats any storm within the GOM as a threat to coastal TX. If nothing else, we spin up the shelters and ready the aircraft to transport and receive evacuees from other areas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, by the time this hits Cuba, this could be a high cat 4.....means less weakening as it emerges from Cuba.....Even though it's not really mountainous, I still think it's possible this can drop down to a cat 1 prior to exiting Cuba, even if it enters a Cuba as a strong Cat4, but Cat1 is probably the lowest it will get....If it was going over all mountains, that would be a different story...Even the NHC, which basically follows the spine of Cuba shows it emerging as a Cat....that seems accurate to me.

[srainhoutx]

Once the evacuation begins the two drawbridges in Monroe County including Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will not open for marine traffic (boats) to avoid any vehicular traffic (cars, etc.) delays.

isn't the new jewfish creek bridge not a drawbridge? Last time I was through there I thought they had already taken down the old bridge.

It is a new Fly Over Type Bridge. No Draw bridge there. Only the one at Snake Creek

[ronjon]

The last 3 hrs Ike has moved almost due west - and he seems to be slowing. We may see the end of any W-SW movement from this point on.

[AtlanticWind]

Am going out on a limb saying Ike will not sink any further south than it is now at 21.4 , starts its west movement.

[deltadog03]

It still looks, based on that steering map posted above, that the its approaching the western part of the big ridge...Might straighten out a bit coming up...

[Blown Away]

Ike's center looks like it will be around 90 miles from N coast of Hispanola and the hurricane force winds go out 45 miles. Surprised a hurricane watch has not been issued along with the TS warnings for Hispanola.

[Vortex]

Ike Certainly appears to have begun a due west motion..

[Ptarmigan]

Unbelievable that N.O. could be evacing again so soon.

That would really suck for them.