ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Every single few hours I come back...people think it's moving west..


Anyway...im very shocked at how well organized this storm is I think im confident to welcome the first and hopefully only cat 5 this season.

[Frank P]

For those interested the GOES sat pixs are about 30 minutes more up to date than the noaa pixs

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes - latest pix 22:55 UTC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rb.jpg - latest pix 22:15 UTC

[HarlequinBoy]

If it takes the predicted path over Cuba I could see it weakening more than forecast.

Gustav was over land for a minimal amount of time but Cuba still took a big toll on him. I know it was shear that kept him from restrengthening, but it weakened pretty quickly once it hit Cuba.

[eastcoastFL]

i think the wobble to the nw is there. if you look the whole structure of the storm jumps in that direction.

[cycloneye]

Its already north of first forecast point.See loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[Vortex]

Live webcam illustrates a beautiful picture from the turks and caicos 10 minutes ago..Amazing how one could look at this picture and in a matter of hours this island will be changed for years to come if Ike's core passes...


http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/wpns/1/show.html

[Weatherfreak000]

I definitely see a wobble when the eye came out...but the motion has been generally overall consistent..I see no reason to think this thing has turned due west.

[wx247]

edit: the chart is gone... no reply needed

[carversteve]

Its already north of first forecast point.See loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Yes he is..and i said something about this a page back and got no response...but it's all good..Looked to jump quite a bit north on this loop!

[MBryant]

Oops! the 5 day was 100 knotts so same question with 140 knotts.

[jinftl]

This gives an idea of NHC thinking is...the one thing that could change all of this is more or less time over land.

I know I'm fearcasting a little with intensity which is hard in the first place, but it was expected to lose 40 knots due to land interaction and still be 120 knots in 5 days. Could it hit the chute and be 160 knots realistically?

[tolakram]

For those pics Frank was talking about.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-70&map=standard&zoom=2&info=ir&quality=90&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1200&height=800&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=white

Adjust the lat= and lon= params as Ike moves.

To show lat and lon change map=standard to map=latlon

[cpdaman]

resumed WSW motion again

[robbielyn]

i dont know what sat pic you are looking at but it is headed west where do you see a southerly componet to it now? just asking

[Portastorm]

Texas Division of Emergency Management has an Ike planning conference call scheduled 4:30 Sunday afternoon.

Texas treats any storm within the GOM as a threat to coastal TX. If nothing else, we spin up the shelters and ready the aircraft to transport and receive evacuees from other areas.

I could understand why Texas does that, having what 350-400 miles of coastline? Alot to worry about when these storms get into the gulf.

Actually that call will be at 4 p.m. ... but that's a minor correction! Regardless, given the real weather and model trends, we (Texas) will be ramping up our emergency planning operations for the fourth time since July. Whoo boy!

[Jake8898]

Even something as minor as Ike beginning a slight wnw turn 50 or 75 miles east or west of where he was forecast to could be huge as far as who is in his sights down the road.

Tricky ticky.

I'm not picking, I just have an honest question. If this was true then why did the NHC pretty much nail Gustav to just west of N.O. prior to all of it's dancing around Haiti and Jamaica? That little SW move was not predicted yet they still called it rather accurately.

[msbee]

Live webcam illustrates a beautiful picture from the turks and caicos 10 minutes ago..Amazing how one could look at this picture and in a matter of hours this island will be changed for years to come if Ike's core passes...


http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/wpns/1/show.html

It's amazing that the sky is a little blue and the sun is setting. you would never believe a deadly storm is so close.
I am so scared for those people. Having had a CAT 4 on St. Maarten, I know what they are about to go through.
You are right.
Those islands will be changed for years.

[mvtrucking]

If Ike just happens to brush Cuba's spine, no telling how strong it could be in the Gulf? Scary to think about.

[Frank P]

resumed WSW motion again

Yeah you can see it on the update GOES

eye clears out a little too on the latest IR pix

[Portastorm]

I dont want this storm, the weather in Houston has been gorgeous the past two days!

Cool Autumn weather, with comfortably warm days with low humidity, and refreshing mornings well into the 60s. Courtesy of the Westerlies that have been over Texas for a while, and would make it unlikely anything makes it this far.

Heh, heh ... you and your westerlies, Ed. Let's hope those westerlies are still doing their thing later this week. Or else Ike will smash your "Texas season over" proclamation. And who needs that?!