MiamiensisWx wrote:Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?
I'm befuddled...
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ATL: IKE Discussion
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
Denial
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MiamiensisWx
Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:The last vortex fix I saw was 21.31 minutes west which equates to 21.5 a p[osition almost due west of the previous fix which was 21.32 minutes west. Which data are you using?
I'm utilizing the Google Earth fixes...
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Stormcenter
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Well if you fill in the NHC's forecast points on this loop it sure does look like Ike is
tracking a little north of the their forecast points.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
tracking a little north of the their forecast points.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
MiamiensisWx wrote:Why is it impossible for people to trust the data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?
I'm befuddled...
Because it's not visually showing that. I have been watching over and over and over again looking for that sw motion that i saw earlier and its not there and i was looking at visible. if it is going wsw than the human eye can't detect it. And whose to say data from the plane is a 100% accurate? I trust it more than not but right now i say it is wrong.
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tolakram
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Re:
Stormcenter wrote:If you plot the NHC forecast points on this loop in sure looks like Ike is tracking
a little north.
But why when there is a plane IN Ike.
The bowtie red line is the plane circling in the eye.
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CalmBeforeStorm
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
MiamiensisWx wrote:CalmBeforeStorm wrote:The last vortex fix I saw was 21.31 minutes west which equates to 21.5 a p[osition almost due west of the previous fix which was 21.32 minutes west. Which data are you using?
I'm utilizing the Google Earth fixes...
I'm utilizing recon.
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zaqxsw75050
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
MiamiensisWx wrote:Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?
I'm befuddled...
Can you all not see the pictures I'm posting here and in the recon obs thread? Current center is south and west of the previous.
+1
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sfwx
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 06, 2008
...Core of dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Turk and Caicos
Islands...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas...including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Holguin.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Camaguey.
All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this potentially dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 60 miles...105 km
...East of Grand Turk island.
Ike has been moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph...18 km/hr
during the past few hours but Ike should resume a track between the
west and west-southwest at 15 mph...24 km/hr tonight. On this
track...the core of the hurricane is expected to pass near or over
the Turks and Caicos Islands shortly...and begin to affect the
southeastern Bahamas later tonight or early Sunday. Ike should
then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of
eastern Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in strength
are possible during the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to
remain a major hurricane during this period.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 947 mb...27.96 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of
the center of Ike.
Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides over mountainous terrain.
Repeating the 800 PM AST position...21.3 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135
mph. Minimum central pressure...947 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
...Core of dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Turk and Caicos
Islands...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas...including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Holguin.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Camaguey.
All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this potentially dangerous hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 60 miles...105 km
...East of Grand Turk island.
Ike has been moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph...18 km/hr
during the past few hours but Ike should resume a track between the
west and west-southwest at 15 mph...24 km/hr tonight. On this
track...the core of the hurricane is expected to pass near or over
the Turks and Caicos Islands shortly...and begin to affect the
southeastern Bahamas later tonight or early Sunday. Ike should
then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of
eastern Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in strength
are possible during the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to
remain a major hurricane during this period.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 947 mb...27.96 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of
the center of Ike.
Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides over mountainous terrain.
Repeating the 800 PM AST position...21.3 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135
mph. Minimum central pressure...947 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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MiamiensisWx
Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
CalmBeforeStorm wrote:MiamiensisWx wrote:CalmBeforeStorm wrote:The last vortex fix I saw was 21.31 minutes west which equates to 21.5 a p[osition almost due west of the previous fix which was 21.32 minutes west. Which data are you using?
I'm utilizing the Google Earth fixes...
I'm utilizing recon.
The Google Earth plots directly incorporate the data from the reconnaissance mission.
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ExBailbonds
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
MiamiensisWx wrote:Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?
I'm befuddled...
VDM's are not perfect dead centers locations. You cant take to very close in VDM's to calculate direction.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103035&p=1814879#p1814879
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 23:12:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°23'N 69°58'W (21.3833N 69.9667W) (View map)
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 23:12:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°23'N 69°58'W (21.3833N 69.9667W) (View map)
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Weatherfreak000
Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
It is not impossible. Wobble watching takes place with every storm...people went back and forth the heading on Gustav, Fay, etc.
The back and forth here over whether the current heading is 265 or 255 is technically not even denying the overall movement has been wsw. The angle of the wsw movement is probably more in debate....or is a wobble indicative of a chane of the prior wsw path.
I am almost wondering why it is seems so important with this storm that people have to acknowledge out loud what is not something to debate....it has been moving wsw.
The back and forth here over whether the current heading is 265 or 255 is technically not even denying the overall movement has been wsw. The angle of the wsw movement is probably more in debate....or is a wobble indicative of a chane of the prior wsw path.
I am almost wondering why it is seems so important with this storm that people have to acknowledge out loud what is not something to debate....it has been moving wsw.
MiamiensisWx wrote:Why is it impossible for people to trust the accurate, verifiable data from the plane that indicates the center has moved south of due west?
I'm befuddled...
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zaqxsw75050
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MiamiensisWx
5 p.m.:
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.public.023.shtml?
8 p.m.:
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062345.shtml
Hopefully, the evidence places this issue to bed, since the TPC is utilizing data from the reconnaissance mission.
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.public.023.shtml?
8 p.m.:
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM ...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.
IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062345.shtml
Hopefully, the evidence places this issue to bed, since the TPC is utilizing data from the reconnaissance mission.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Stormcenter
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Re:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:NHC is currently North of most global models 120+ Hours out.....another south shift coming.
They did the same thing with Gustav and did very well with it so I wouldn't question them if
they don't change it dramatically.
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Can someone please tell me how bad do you think it will it be for the people living in Havana? I have relatives living there and they said it was pretty bad when Gustav passed and had a lot of damages.. I'm sure you all know that is not easy in Cuba to get your home fixed after a hurricane since there's no building supplies.. I'm very concerned for their safety.. If it continues on this path, will they feel cat 3 or 4 winds? I would appreciate any input you can give me. thanks!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 4 - Discussion
remember the picture wxman57 showed earlier about center fixes using vdm? They can be off from the actual center.
I agree...not that it matters...using the NHC forecast points...with the eye clearly visible now...that IKe is north of the point.
Will it matter...maybe maybe not.
Sure would be nice though if those of us in the immediate cone range could get info instead of all the speculation of where Ike will be later next week. Remember he has to go thru here first before he gets there.
Seems alot of people have forgotten that the Keys are part of Fl as well.
I agree...not that it matters...using the NHC forecast points...with the eye clearly visible now...that IKe is north of the point.
Will it matter...maybe maybe not.
Sure would be nice though if those of us in the immediate cone range could get info instead of all the speculation of where Ike will be later next week. Remember he has to go thru here first before he gets there.
Seems alot of people have forgotten that the Keys are part of Fl as well.
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