ATL: IKE Discussion

[Derek Ortt]

Can someone please tell me how bad do you think it will it be for the people living in Havana? I have relatives living there and they said it was pretty bad when Gustav passed and had a lot of damages.. I'm sure you all know that is not easy in Cuba to get your home fixed after a hurricane since there's no building supplies.. I'm very concerned for their safety.. If it continues on this path, will they feel cat 3 or 4 winds? I would appreciate any input you can give me. thanks!

I dont see a cat 3 or 4 for Havana unless this moves into the Caribbean

[tolakram]

tolakram post your chart with the latest 8 PM position.

I did, a few minutes ago, but it's a page back now.

[fasterdisaster]

I can't detect any north of west motion in this loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Code: Select all

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-70&map=latlon&zoom=1&info=ir&quality=90&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1200&height=800&palette=spect.pal&mapcolor=white


Build your own, this time zoomed in a bit closer.

If you go on GOES floaters and use preferably one of the darker IRs (Rainbow is great for tracking IMO) and add Lat/Lon as well as 'Trop Pts' which shows the forecast you should probably see he's been moving west or slightly north.

[Jinkers]

major concern during the next 24 hours.

How much rain will Haiti get. Remember, they just had more than 500 deaths from Hanna. Any rainfall will be catastrophic for them

I've been thinking about these poor people all day, my heart and prayers go out to them.

[eastcoastFL]

he was definetly north of the last point and unless he heads a little more to the south he is going to miss the next point by more. Guess we are not out of the woods yet

[MBryant]

Strictly looking at it from the geographic point of view, Havana should receive the least possible impact from a hurricane approaching from it's ESE as Ike is doing. This angle is optimal for minimum damage. It would cross the bulk of Cuba before reaching Havana. An appoach from the NE would be far worse because of reduced interaction with land.

If anyone else has more information on this, please fell free to add or correct my observation.

[cpdaman]

he was definetly north of the last point and unless he heads a little more to the south he is going to miss the next point by more. Guess we are not out of the woods yet

wether this is a tenth or two tenths north or south is not really the issue if your in SE florida

the most concerning thing (besides a NW acceleration at about 20mph lol) would be a general slow down in motion to around 8-9 mph and the 5 am models showing some kind of shift toward us.

[tolakram]

If you go on GOES floaters and use preferably one of the darker IRs (Rainbow is great for tracking IMO) and add Lat/Lon as well as 'Trop Pts' which shows the forecast you should probably see he's been moving west or slightly north.

Due west, maybe a tad north of the last forecast point? Gotcha, yea it does appear that way.

[jusforsean]

well max just said we in s. fl need to watch for slowdowns

got a question? were the models forecasting this to slow down a bit tonite/sunday?

Sorry for not having specifics but I believe a couple were. And if it slowed this would be farther north because he will be farther east when the ridge breaks down.

Did you notice that Max isnt buying into this SFL ringing the all clear just yet, he said hes been doing this a long time and has seen storms change very quickly, until max gives the all clear we are not all clear when is it forecasted to slow i noticed it has droped like 2 mph does this slowing trend if it is one depict a possible change of direction? When is the ridge forescasted to break down? Tks

[PTPatrick]

remember right now guys too that the models consensus is very good and NOT showing a crossover. They all show a turn WNW before or on top of Cuba. UKMET is the only one showing the crossover. to the Carrib.

[fasterdisaster]

Thunderstorms continuing to intensify around the eyewall.

[MiamiensisWx]

When does the next mission depart for the TC?

[robbielyn]

he was definetly north of the last point and unless he heads a little more to the south he is going to miss the next point by more. Guess we are not out of the woods yet

I remember yesterday when the cone was in the fl peninsula and this was suppose to do a possible donna, that they were forecasting a wsw motion for a couple of days.

[fasterdisaster]

What is a good link for looking at spaghetti models guys?

[carversteve]

If you go on GOES floaters and use preferably one of the darker IRs (Rainbow is great for tracking IMO) and add Lat/Lon as well as 'Trop Pts' which shows the forecast you should probably see he's been moving west or slightly north.

Due west, maybe a tad north of the last forecast point? Gotcha, yea it does appear that way.

Yes..and if he keeps moving west he will be a bit north of the next forecast point.

[Sabanic]

If you go on GOES floaters and use preferably one of the darker IRs (Rainbow is great for tracking IMO) and add Lat/Lon as well as 'Trop Pts' which shows the forecast you should probably see he's been moving west or slightly north.

Due west, maybe a tad north of the last forecast point? Gotcha, yea it does appear that way.

Yes..and if he keeps moving west he will be a bit north of the next forecast point.

That may make a difference in the long term, but it may not. We'll see.

[MBryant]

From an outsiders point of view, there seems to be some differences between plots of forecast points observed by some posters and deviations from 270 and whether they should be described as WSW, W or WNW by other posters. Overall, it appears to be an argument over a rather insignificant difference in the actual direction of Ike. +/- 5 degrees.

The cone of uncertainty is much, much larger than this difference.

[Frank P]

run the loop again and look where the 23:45 center ends up... looks to be very close to track, if its off, not by much at all.. my opinion...

[artist]

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72.....NO CHANGE
A. 06/1800,07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
C. 06/1530Z
D. 22.7N 68.1W
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49 ....NO CHANGE
A. 07/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0509A IKE
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 74.....ADDED
A. 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0609A IKE
C. 06/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70.....CHANGED
A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0709A IKE....FLT NO ONLY CHANGE
C. 07/0330Z
D. 22.4N 70.6W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49......ADDED
A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IKE
C. 07/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV FOR 08/0000Z. A WP-3 RESEARCH MISSION AT 07/2000Z

[robbielyn]

If you go on GOES floaters and use preferably one of the darker IRs (Rainbow is great for tracking IMO) and add Lat/Lon as well as 'Trop Pts' which shows the forecast you should probably see he's been moving west or slightly north.

Due west, maybe a tad north of the last forecast point? Gotcha, yea it does appear that way.

Yes..and if he keeps moving west he will be a bit north of the next forecast point.

And if it 08/06 UTC point it would hit the very top of cuba with possibly the eye only being partially over land then go inland after that but on the northern part of the coast. i do believe there are some mountains there too though. Ike still could get messed up good but i don't think it will go through the spine of cuba now but i still think it will go inland and not stay in the straights. there is no wnw motion yet.