ATL: IKE Discussion

[sunnyday]

About Max Mayfield's statement that S Fl needs to watch for Ike to slow down--did he seem to be trying to cover all possibilities, or did he seem to be thinking a slowdown is somewhat likely?

[fasterdisaster]

About Max Mayfield's statement that S Fl needs to watch for Ike to slow down--did he seem to be trying to cover all possibilities, or did he seem to be thinking a slowdown is somewhat likely?

Well it's slowed down recently and a couple models called for it.

[HenkL]

In about 3 hours (0330Z).

[hiflyer]

Yes..and if he keeps moving west he will be a bit north of the next forecast point.

And closer to the Turks and Caicos....dang. Looks like that weather station on Pine Cay has not updated since the top of the hour...saw on Storm Carib that they were 'pulling the plug' on the power grid this evening. It was located at this rental house.... http://geekho.com/ aptly named...came with wireless internet and a host of other stuff...for only 7000 a week.

[tolakram]

And if it 08/06 UTC point it would hit the very top of cuba with possibly the eye only being partially over land unless it starts the forecasted wsw dip again.

If you look at the shortwave loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

You can see how the eye is wobbling north and south. This is the intensity wobbles some have talked about as the storm gets stronger. overall it does look to be moving very close to due west.

[Sabanic]

And if it 08/06 UTC point it would hit the very top of cuba with possibly the eye only being partially over land unless it starts the forecasted wsw dip again.

If you look at the shortwave loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

You can see how the eye is wobbling north and south. This is the intensity wobbles some have talked about as the storm gets stronger. overall it does look to be moving very close to due west.

Thanks for the explanation tola. These wobbles get way, way, way over analyzed

[robbielyn]

From an outsiders point of view, there seems to be some differences between plots of forecast points observed by some posters and deviations from 270 and whether they should be described as WSW, W or WNW by other posters. Overall, it appears to be an argument over a rather insignificant difference in the actual direction of Ike. +/- 5 degrees.

The cone of uncertainty is much, much larger than this difference.

You are absolutely right. the difference of the movement is insignificant except that a tad or i will say a hairs length north proves in my mind its not wsw. its due west. We're not saying the track has changed much. but earlier it almost looked like it was diving into the DR now it's evened out. But dr and haiti has ts warnings and cuba has hurricane warnings. so it's not far off whatsoever with nhc. hey we are all having fun on here anyways. this is what its all about.

[fasterdisaster]

He really looks good on the shortwave!

[robbielyn]

And if it 08/06 UTC point it would hit the very top of cuba with possibly the eye only being partially over land unless it starts the forecasted wsw dip again.

If you look at the shortwave loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

You can see how the eye is wobbling north and south. This is the intensity wobbles some have talked about as the storm gets stronger. overall it does look to be moving very close to due west.

Yes due west that is what i have been saying and getting accused of -removed-. it doesn't change the track much at this point if it is a hair north of last point and maintains the due west heading it puts it in the northern half of cuba but I say stays over water west of the nhc cuban landfall and hits it further west again unless it goes wsw again.

[carversteve]

A wobble may not make a difference...but then again,Ike should not even be where he is now..so any move he makes,being a wobble or a real move needs to be taken seriously..because as i see it,we have no idea where he is going!! He was suppose to be to the east of florida!! For what ever reason this year they seem to be making there own tracks!

[cpdaman]

focus on the SPEED as much as the path

[MGC]

I see a slight south of due west track. High to Ike's north is still building southward. Turks and Caicos are going to take one on the chin.....MGC

[robbielyn]

And if it 08/06 UTC point it would hit the very top of cuba with possibly the eye only being partially over land unless it starts the forecasted wsw dip again.

If you look at the shortwave loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

You can see how the eye is wobbling north and south. This is the intensity wobbles some have talked about as the storm gets stronger. overall it does look to be moving very close to due west.

n and south median is due west then there it's settled lol. anyways the eye looks like it has gotten bigger.

[DESTRUCTION5]

focus on the SPEED as much as the path

Yea I have never witnessed a storm blow thru the spine of cuba at 18 mph

[jinftl]

I think he was speaking on a more general level...and not forecasting ike to slow down. And by slow down, he probably means an unforseen and major decrease in speed....a stall or a crawl.

A storm where ike is puts florida....actually the east coast, bahamas etc. in a very vulnerable spot potentially. The longer a storm lingers in a spot like that, the more likely that changes can start to take place with the forecast....influences that may never have effected the storm had it kept moving now may come into play.

The south track is a bit unusual...we don't want ike lingering in a spot where if more climatologically regular occurrences like fronts and troughs can now effect him if he is still there in 5 days....would result in a forecast more to the north...towards florida for starters.

About Max Mayfield's statement that S Fl needs to watch for Ike to slow down--did he seem to be trying to cover all possibilities, or did he seem to be thinking a slowdown is somewhat likely?

[carversteve]

A wobble may not make a difference...but then again,Ike should not even be where he is now..so any move he makes,being a wobble or a real move needs to be taken seriously..because as i see it,we have no idea where he is going!! He was suppose to be to the east of florida!! For what ever reason this year they seem to be making there own tracks!! So if he movs west,who's to say he just doesn't keep moving that way..The models?? Well so far the models have been..well we know the rest of that story!!

[MBryant]

How often does Cuba get hit from the North side? Is there a coastal slide like often happens in the GOM as it interacts with land?

[Dean4Storms]

Actually I believe Ike is stair stepping around the ridge right now, the stronger he is the more poleward and fighting the ridge we see, we saw it with Gustav. When either were weaker the ridge easily steers them along the flow, when they are gaining strength they begin to fight the ridge and thus stair step.

[JPmia]

I think he was speaking on a more general level...and not forecasting ike to slow down. And by slow down, he probably means an unforseen and major decrease in speed....a stall or a crawl.

A storm where ike is puts florida....actually the east coast, bahamas etc. in a very vulnerable spot potentially. The longer a storm lingers in a spot like that, the more likely that changes can start to take place with the forecast....influences that may never have effected the storm had it kept moving now may come into play.

The south track is a bit unusual...we don't want ike lingering in a spot where if more climatologically regular occurrences like fronts and troughs can now effect him if he is still there in 5 days....would result in a forecast more to the north...towards florida for starters.

About Max Mayfield's statement that S Fl needs to watch for Ike to slow down--did he seem to be trying to cover all possibilities, or did he seem to be thinking a slowdown is somewhat likely?

WTVJ, Channel 6 Met, Paul Deanno, said that he is 99.99% sure that Ike will not make a landfall in Broward or Miami-Dade Counties. That is not consistent with what Max Mayfield is saying on Channel 10...in fact Max says we should wait until the 5am advisory from NHC because that one will have all the data included from the Recon and G-IV airplane measurements.

[artist]

Max Mayfield just stated "We need to keep a close eye on any slow downs with Ike and the models tonight with the 5am advisory will provide crucial information as they will have ingested critical information from recon today. Also noted, that ALL computer models forecasted a typhoon to miss the phillipines early this year with a turn to the north which never materialized and they took a direct hit" Exerpt from the local special with max at 8pm.

thanks for posting that. Not very comforting for those in Miami, but I am glad he is watching this so closely. I think everyone will be glad when it is past there latitude~